NBA Playoffs 2024: Three Best Bets In A 'Get-Right' Spot Tuesday

Just when I thought I had this betting thing figured out, the NBA bent me over its knee and spanked me like a child. Since rattling off 15 straight victories betting on the NBA, I’ve gone 1-6 in my last seven plays. Monday in the 2024 NBA Playoffs was an absolute horror show. 

It was a display of everything you should NOT do when sports betting. I somehow talked myself into liking the Orlando Magic even though I hated them this whole season. I took a bad number on the 76ers-Knicks total instead of just passing. 

Then I recklessly added two player props via X. The only thing that prevented Monday from going worse was I had the foresight to downsize my bets knowing they weren’t "sharp". With that in mind, I’m guaranteeing a bounce-back with my Game 2 wagers below.

NBA Playoffs 2024 Betting Card: Tuesday, April 23rd 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves (-3), 7:30 p.m. ET

The Timberwolves stomped the Suns 120-95 in Game 1 Saturday. T-Wolves All-Star Anthony Edwards erupted for a game-high 33 points on 58.3% shooting (14-of-24). Edwards was talking smack to Suns All-Star Kevin Durant mid-game. Minnesota beat Phoenix in three of the "four factors" with the most damage being done on the glass. 

For instance, the Timberwolves had a 34.2% offensive rebounding rate in Game 1 and the Suns were at 7.1%. High-level basketball is a "battle for possessions" and Minnesota attempted 13 more field goals than Phoenix Saturday. That said, I’m going back to the well with the T-Wolves because the Suns don’t have a point guard. 

Phoenix has a bunch of the same guys: Elite offensive players who are mediocre, at best, on defense. Durant, Devin Booker, SG Bradley Beal, and C Jusuf Nurkic can all score. But, who’s doing the dirty work? Minnesota PG Mike Conley sucked Saturday, yet at least he’s a traditional point guard. Timberwolves SF Jaden McDaniels and C Rudy Gobert are defensive specialists. 

Gobert grabbed a game-high 16 rebounds in Game 1 and McDaniels locked up Booker. Against McDaniels, Booker shot just 1-for-6 from the field. Booker is too good offensively to expect two bad games in a row. However, McDaniels and Edwards are two of the best perimeter defenses in the NBA, so it won't be easy for Phoenix’s scorers to get good looks. 

Phoenix Suns SG Devin Booker shoots a contested jumper over Timberwolves SF Jaden McDaniels during Game 1 of the 1st round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Target Center in Minnesota. (Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports)

Plus, T-Wolves PF Karl-Anthony Towns is as dynamic of an offensive player as anyone in this series. KAT scored just 19 points in Game 1, but he shot 5-for-9 from the field and threw a couple of nice assists. Minnesota backup SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker is good at both ends of the floor and backup big Naz Reid is a finalist to win NBA Sixth Man of the Year. 

Ultimately, this Suns team just lacks juice and was overrated entering the NBA Playoffs. While the Timberwolves have more ways to win and a better roster. 

Bet 1.1u on Minnesota -3 (-110) at FanDuel. The Timberwolves are playable up to -4. 

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Indiana Pacers (-102) at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 p.m. ET

I gave out a 2.3u play on Indy's -115 moneyline for Game 1 because the Bucks were missing two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee made me look stupid by roasting Indiana 109-94 Saturday. I felt dumb about giving out the Pacers for Game 1 roughly 10 minutes before tip-off. 

For whatever reason, Bucks coach Doc Rivers' teams have overperformed without their best players since he was coaching the LA Clippers from 2013-20. So, Indy's moneyline for Game 1 was a sucker bet. Bucks All-Star PG Damian Lillard stepped up and scored all of his 35 points in the 1st half Saturday. 

The market is going to be thrown off by Milwaukee only being -1 favorites despite holding a lead as high as 30 over Indiana Saturday. Nonetheless, these teams are closer than that 15-point margin suggests. They split the "four factors" in Game 1 and the outcome was decided by the Bucks hitting six more 3-pointers (14-8). 

Dame and his teammates hit a bunch of tough threes and the Pacers bricked a ton of great looks. But, I expect that to even out at some point. Indiana attempted 15 more "wide-open" 3-pointers than Milwaukee Saturday (31-16). "Wide-open" is when the shooter has at least six feet of distance from the nearest defender. Furthermore, Indy All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton no-showed in his 1st-ever playoff game. 

Indiana Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton gets a layup vs. the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 1 of the 1st round in the 2024 NBA playoffs at Fiserv Forum in Wisconsin. (Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports)

Haliburton scored just 9 points on 4-of-7 shooting and looked like a deer in headlights (pun intended). Aside from Bucks PG Patrick Beverley, Milwaukee has one of the worst defensive backcourts in the NBA. Haliburton averaged 27.0 points and 11.0 assists per game vs. the Bucks during the regular season. I'm betting Haliburton plays better Tuesday and the Pacers tie this series before it goes to Indiana. 

Bet 1.02u on the Pacers moneyline (-105) at FanDuel. Indiana is playable through zero and up to -2 favorites. 

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Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers (+110), 10 p.m. ET

While I stuck to my guns in the Suns-Timberwolves and Pacers-Bucks series, I'm flip-flopping on this one. Originally, I didn't think the Clippers could beat the Mavs without All-Star, and leading scorer, Kawhi Leonard. After watching LAC's 109-97 Game 1 whooping of Dallas, I now think the Clippers could win this series without Kawhi. 

LAC's Ty Lue is a better coach than Dallas's Jason Kidd. The Mavericks have a soft interior defense and Lue drew plays up for Clippers C Ivica Zubac, who's sixth on the team in usage rate among rotation players. Zubac scored 20 points on 10-for-17 shooting and grabbed a game-high 15 rebounds. Essentially, Lue attacked the Mavericks where they were most vulnerable. 

Furthermore, if Dallas had a better defensive backcourt, James Harden might struggle as he usually does in the playoffs. But, Harden could offset, or even outplay, Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving. Paul George is the best two-way player in this series and Los Angeles SG Terance Mann is the best on-ball defender. Luka went 2-for-9 in Game 1 when Mann guarded him. 

The Clippers have a deeper roster and more ways to win. Whereas the Mavericks cannot survive a bad Dončić game. Kyrie and Luka combined for 64 points in Game 1 while PG scored just 20 points on 8-of-20 shooting and LAC still hammered Dallas. It wouldn't be shocking if Clippers backups Russell Westbrook and Norman Powell had monster games in this series. 

Bet 1u on Los Angeles's moneyline (+110) at Caesars. I'd lay up to -3 with the Clippers in Game 2. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.