2024 NBA Playoffs 1st-Round Best Bets, Picks For Game 1's On Saturday
My weekends are booked now that the 2024 NBA Playoffs are here. Besides the NFL's regular season and PGA TOUR major championships, NBA postseason games are my favorite sporting events to gamble on. In the playoffs, we can guarantee motivation and participation.
LISTEN: OutKick Bets With Geoff Clark's NBA Play-In Finales, Game 1 Betting Previews Ft. David Troy
Unlike the regular season, which is marred by inconsistent effort and "load management". Nonetheless, we have three-plus months of NBA playoff basketball to the rescue. I'm starting the NBA's "real season" with a bang and making bets for all four games Saturday.
2024 NBA Playoffs Betting Card: Saturday, April 20th
The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers (-4.5), 1 p.m. ET
These teams split their regular-season series 2-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). But, the Cavaliers have a +5.0 scoring margin, and they made 4.75 more threes and grabbed 4.75 more rebounds per game vs. Orlando in those games. Plus, Cleveland has the best player in this series for now.
Eventually, Magic All-Star PF Paolo Banchero will be the best player on either team. Currently, Cavs All-Star SG Donovan Mitchell is better. Orlando doesn’t shoot many threes and spends most of its time around the basket. Cleveland has two elite defensive bigs in C Jarrett Allen and PF Evan Mobley to keep Banchero and Magic SG Franz Wagner out of the paint.
Cleveland Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell drives past Orlando Magic combo guard Jalen Suggs at Amway Center in Florida. (Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, I cannot take Orlando’s offense seriously until it gets a true point guard. Magic guards Jalen Suggs, Markelle Fultz, and Cole Anthony don’t get teammates looks. The secret to beating Cleveland is attacking Mitchell and fellow guard Darius Garland. Since Orlando won’t be able to do this, I’m not sure how it’ll score against the Cavaliers.
Lastly, the Magic are a young team that struggled on the road during the regular season, and playoff experience is a "thing". Orlando has a +7.6 scoring margin at home and a -3.6 scoring margin on the road.
Bet 1.1u on the Cavaliers -4.5 (-110) at Caesars. Cleveland is bet-able up to -6.
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Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves (-118), 3:30 p.m. ET
"The Suns to eliminate the Timberwolves in the 1st round" is becoming a trendy pick. Phoenix swept the regular-season series with Minnesota 3-0 SU and ATS and the Suns had a +15.7 scoring margin. However, it wasn’t all bad for the T-Wolves once you dug into those games.
Minnesota beat Phoenix in three of the "four factors": Rebounding, free-throw attempt differential, and the turnover battle. The Suns hit an unsustainable 48.8% of their threes. The Timberwolves will win Saturday if they shoot better at home and Phoenix’s 3-point shooting regresses to the mean.
Minnesota Timberwolves PF Karl-Anthony Towns looks to pass out of a double-team by Phoenix Suns SG and All-Star Kevin Durant at Target Center. (Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports)
T-Wolves All-Star big Karl-Anthony Towns (KAT) returned from a 5-week injury absence two games before the regular season. The market doesn't have enough respect for how much better Minnesota is with KAT on the floor. The Timberwolves are 42-20 in games Towns plays and 12-14 SU without him. If KAT never got hurt, they would have home-court advantage for the Western Conference playoffs.
He is their 2nd-leading scorer at 21.8 points per game on 50.4% shooting and 41.6% from behind the arc. When Towns, All-Star Anthony Edwards, and C Rudy Gobert are on the floor together, the T-Wolves have a +9.3 non-garbage time net rating, per CleaningTheGlass.com. I’m not sold that they will win this series. But, the Timberwolves will hold down home court in Game 1.
Bet 1.18u on Minnesota's moneyline (-118) at DraftKings. The Timberwolves are playable up to -135 before laying up to -3.
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New York Knicks C Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 19.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists ("PRA") vs. Philadelphia 76ers
I will avoid betting this series as much as possible since I'm a biased Knicks fan. Objectively, I lean toward the Sixers advancing since they have the best player in this series, Joel Embiid. That said, Hartenstein's PRA has been easy money over the last month or so. Isaiah has gone Over 19.5 PRA in 13 of his final 16 regular-season games.
Furthermore, Hartenstein has a nice little "float game", crashes the offensive glass, and is one of the best passing bigs in the NBA. He is averaging 9.0 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 3.5 assists since the All-Star break. Isaiah has a bigger role in New York's offense due to the injury of Knicks All-Star PF Julius Randle.
New York Knicks C Isaiah Hartenstein dunks the ball on the Philadelphia 76ers at Madison Square Garden. (Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)
NYK will run plays for Hartenstein and test Embiid's injured knee. Embiid was noticeably less than 100% for the Heat-76ers play-in game Wednesday. Hartenstein has gone Over 19.5 PRA in one of his four games against Philly this season. That one Over is in Embiid’s only regular-season meeting with the Knicks in 2023-24.
Bet 0.58u on Knicks C Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 19.5 PRA (-115) at FanDuel, up to 20.5.
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Los Angeles Lakers (+7.5) at Denver Nuggets, 8:30 p.m. ET
Denver owns LAL. Dating back to last season, the Nuggets have an 8-game winning streak over the Lakers, including a 4-game sweep in the 2023 Western Conference Finals and all three meetings this season. Yet, three of Denver's four wins in last year's conference finals were by 6 or fewer points and these teams split the "four factors".
The Nuggets were -7 favorites vs. the Lakers for Game 1 of the 2023 Western Conference Finals. But, LAL is better this season and Denver is a little worse. The Lakers overhauled their roster at the trade deadline last season. They have more continuity and the supporting cast understands their roles better entering these playoffs.
Los Angeles Lakers PF Anthony Davis jams it on Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokić during Game 4 of the 2024 NBA Western Conference Finals at Crypto.com Arena. (Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)
On top of that, I'm more confident Lakers All-Star Anthony Davis can offset Nuggets C, and likely 2023-24 NBA MVP, Nikola Jokić this time around. AD's 76 games this season is a career-high and he's been a monster at both ends of the floor. Davis is averaging 24.7 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game this season.
Finally, I like how many 3-point shooters Los Angeles put around AD and LeBron James. Lakers PG D'Angelo Russell shoots 41.5% from behind the arc, SG Austin Reaves is 36.7%, and PF Rui Hachimura is 42.2%. These guys are playing confidently and Los Angeles will give Denver all it can handle in the 1st round.
Bet 1.08 on the Lakers +7.5 (-115) at BetMGM for Game 1. Give me Los Angeles down to +5.5.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.