2024 NBA Playoffs: Eastern, Western Conference Finals Betting Previews
Entering the 2024 NBA Playoffs, it felt like the conference finals would be all "chalk". The Boston Celtics have been the favorites to win the championship since the end of last season. Everyone expected the reigning champion Denver Nuggets to represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals. Well, the former is meeting preseason expectations and the latter fell short.
Despite laying an egg at home in Game 2 of their first two playoff series, the Celtics coasted to the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston stomped the Miami Heat 4-1 by an average of 15.6 points per game (PPG) in the first round. Afterward, the Celtics knocked the Cleveland Cavaliers out of the NBA playoffs in five games, winning by 7.2 PPG.
READ: ESPN Had A Big Knicks Love Fest In The Semifinals, And The Pacers Kept Receipts
Indiana is the most surprising team to make the NBA conference finals. Granted, the Pacers played banged-up teams in the first two rounds. Indy "upset" the Milwaukee Bucks without two-time NBA MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo, 4-2 in the first round. Then the Pacers crushed the New York Knicks on the road in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals in one of the greatest shooting performances in NBA postseason history.
The Mavericks advanced to their second Western Conference finals in the last three postseasons by upsetting the 1-seed Oklahoma City Thunder 4-2 in the semifinals. Before, they eliminated the Los Angeles Clippers without All-Star SF Kawhi Leonard 4-2 in the first round. Dallas is led by Luka Dončić, averaging 27.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 9.1 assists in the playoffs, and Kyrie Irving, scoring 21.1 PPG.
Minnesota ended Denver's season with a stunning 98-90 Game 7 victory in the Western Conference semifinals. Timberwolves All-Star Anthony Edwards is having a breakout campaign in these playoffs. Ant-Man is averaging 28.9 PPG, the most of any player in the conference finals. But, the T-Wolves rise or fall with their defense, which ranked first in defensive efficiency during the regular season.
NBA Playoffs 2024 Conference Finals Preview
The odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:15 p.m. ET Monday, May 20th.
Eastern Conference Finals: Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics
Boston won the regular-season series with Indiana 3-2 but lost to Indiana in the inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament quarterfinals. That said, the Pacers didn't have PF Pascal Siakam in four of those five games. Indy acquired Siakam from the Toronto Raptors January 17. Siakam is leading Indiana with 21.1 PPG in the playoffs.
Series Odds
- Boston Celtics (-900)
- Indiana Pacers (+600)
Best Bet: OVER 5.5 games (+145)
The Celtics have the highest 3-point attempt rate in the 2024 NBA Playoffs, yet the Pacers generate better looks from deep. During the regular season, Indiana led the NBA in wide-open 3-point attempts per game and ranked third defensively. "Wide-open" is when there is at least 6 feet of distance from the nearest defender. Indy is hitting 4.0 more wide-open 3s per game than Boston this postseason (9.4-5.4).
Indiana Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton dribbles past Celtics SF Jayson Tatum at TD Garden in Boston. (Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, the Pacers are full strength and the Celtics are missing starting center Kristaps Porziņģis, who adds another element to Boston's offense. Porziņģis is a shot-blocking, floor-spacing, 3-point shooting big who can operate from the post. Without KP, the Celtics are worse on both ends of the floor.
Plus, Boston has the habit of taking games off in these playoffs: The Celtics got drubbed in both Game 2's at home. Between Indiana's 3-point shooting, Boston missing KP for at least the first couple of games in this series, and weird Celtics performances in the playoffs, the Pacers can steal two games from the Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals.
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Western Conference Finals: Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota hammered Dallas in the regular-season series 3-1 and the T-Wolves had a +13.3 scoring margin in those games (116.5-103.2 PPG). However, you have to take those results with a grain of salt. The Timberwolves were at full strength every game vs. the Mavericks whereas Luka played in two of those meetings and Kyrie played just once.
Series Odds
- Minnesota Timberwolves (-170)
- Dallas Mavericks (+145)
Best Bet: Minnesota Timberwolves to win the NBA 2023-24 Title (+275)
Before the 2024 NBA Playoffs, I tossed around the idea of betting the Mavericks and Timberwolves to come out of the West. I ended up only betting Minnesota at +600 odds. I wish I bet Dallas too, since having a free roll here would be nice. Instead of hedging, I'll double down on the T-Wolves and bet them to win the NBA championship. They have a blend of youth, veterans, glue guys and superstars.
Give me Edwards over Luka. Ant-Man is one of the best two-way players in the NBA and Dončić is a liability on defense. T-Wolves All-Star big Karl-Anthony Towns cannot lead a title-contending team but has found the perfect role as Minnesota's No. 2 scoring option. Timberwolves backup big, and NBA Sixth Man of the Year, Naz Reid can clog the paint and space the floor with his outside shooting.
Lastly, they say "Defense wins championships" and Minnesota is the best defensive team in the Association. T-Wolves big, and NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Rudy Gobert's rim protection allows Edwards and SF Jaden McDaniels to apply insane ball pressure. If Gobert is an offensive liability, Minnesota can go small with KAT or Reid playing center. I.e. the Timberwolves have the deepest roster in the NBA.
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