3 'Locks' For Dallas Mavericks Vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Game 5 Of Western Conference Finals

Believe it or not, either team could've swept this series. Unfortunately for the Minnesota Timberwolves (1-3), the Dallas Mavericks (3-1) eked out the first three games of the 2024 Western Conference Finals. The Timberwolves prevented a sweep by winning Game 4. Minnesota hosts the Mavericks at Target Center for Game 5 Thursday.  

Dallas All-Stars Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving have been the best players in this series. Luka and Kyrie are averaging 56.3 points per game (PPG) in the conference finals. T-Wolves All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns no-showed until Tuesday. KAT scored 25 points on 9-of-13 shooting (4-for-5 from three) in Game 4. 

Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Game 5 Betting Card 

The odds are the best available at 12:30 p.m. ET Thursday, May 30th. 

• BET 1.05 units (u) on Minnesota -4.5 (-105) at Caesars. The T-Wolves are playable up to -5.5.
• BET 0.32u on T-Wolves PF Naz Reid OVER 1.5 made threes (-106) at FanDuel.
• BET 0.3u on Dallas SF Derrick Jones Jr. UNDER 8.5 points (-118) at DraftKings.

Timberwolves (-4.5) over Mavericks 

The crux of my Mavericks-Timberwolves Game 5 handicap is "fading the public". According to Pregame.com, over 60% of the action is on Dallas's spread as of noon ET Thursday. BetMGM data scientist John Ewing Tweeted that roughly 75% of the action is on the Mavs and DraftKings is reporting a similar betting split through VSIN. 

Casual bettors see the Mavericks up 3-1 in this series by winning close games, and think "Timberwolves -4.5 is too big of a number". But, the T-Wolves opened up as -4 favorites, so sportsbooks are baiting the public into taking the points with Dallas. Plus, Minnesota's season-long power rating says it's the better team on a neutral floor. 

Minnesota Timberwolves All-Star Anthony Edwards shoots a floater over the Dallas Mavericks in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. at American Airlines Center. (David Dow /NBAE via Getty Images)

Also, one of these games will be lopsided and the Timberwolves have more "blowout potential". They have six players averaging double figures in PPG this series, while the Mavs live and die with Luka and Kyrie. Ant-Man and KAT should almost negate Dončić and Irving, and Minnesota's bench was second in net rating during the regular season. 

Finally, Dallas backup big Dereck Lively II is "questionable" for Game 5 with a neck sprain. His absence would be a huge loss for the Mavericks. Lively has Dallas's second-best on/off net rating this postseason. The 20-year-old rookie is an elite rim protector, which is needed against Edwards' aggressiveness and Minnesota's bigs. 

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Game 5 Player Props 

Minnesota PF Naz Reid OVER 1.5 made threes 

This is my favorite player prop of this series. Reid has a 55.3% 3-point-attempt rate in the conference finals and he is hitting 52.4% of those threes. He's made at least two 3-pointers in 45 of his 81 regular-season games and 10 threes in Games 1-2 in Minnesota this series. Lastly, FanDuel's Over for Reid's threes is cheaper than other legal U.S. sportsbooks.

Minnesota Timberwolves big Naz Reid shoots a three vs. the Dallas Mavericks during Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. (Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)

Dallas SF Derrick Jones Jr. UNDER 8.5 points 

Typically, role players shoot worse on the road and that's the case for Jones. His PPG, offensive rating, and shooting rate are lower on the road. In fact, Jones hits just 29.4% of his threes on the road compared to 39.2% at home. Airplane Mode Jones has the lowest usage rate of Dallas's starting 5 and scored 9+ points in 32 of his 76 regular-season games. 

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