2024 NBA Finals Game 3 Betting Fiesta: Boston Celtics At Dallas Mavericks

It's put up or shut up time for the Dallas Mavericks down 0-2 entering Game 3 of the 2024 NBA Finals vs. the Boston Celtics. No team in NBA history has come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a playoff series. The Celtics have won and covered the first two games even though their leading scorer in the regular season, Jayson Tatum, has shot poorly. 

More importantly, Boston's defense has clamped down on Dallas. Luka Dončić is "getting his" while averaging 31.0 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 6.0 assists in The Finals. Yet, Kyrie Irving is getting shut down. The Mavericks will need Luka and Kyrie to ball out plus help from role players if they want to get back into this series. 

Boston could be missing a key piece for Game 3. Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis has a rare torn medial retinaculum, leading to a dislocation of the posterior tibialis tendon. I have no idea what this injury means, but it sounds bad. ESPN NBA insider Brian Windhorst told The Pat McAfee Show on Wednesday that Boston is "debating giving Porzingis two more days off and playing him in Game 4". 

That said, I see an opportunity to fade the public in Celtics-Mavericks Game 3. The market is overreacting to the Porzingis injury news and he is just the cherry on top of Boston's championship sundae. The Celtics can win the NBA Finals with or without KP. Boston has paid its dues and this could be the start of a dynasty.

Celtics at Mavericks NBA Finals Game 3 Bet Slip 

• 1 unit (u) on Boston +2.5 (+100) at Caesars.
• 0.55u on UNDER 214 in Game 3 (-110) at Caesars.
• 0.35u on Dallas C Dereck Lively II UNDER 7.5 points (-118) at FanDuel.
• 0.32u on Celtics PG Jrue Holiday UNDER 13.5 points (-106) at FanDuel.
• 0.36u on Boston SF Jayson Tatum OVER 9.5 rebounds (-120) at DraftKings.

Celtics +2.5 over Mavericks

Since the public hammered Dallas before the start of the 2024 NBA Finals, no one is expecting a sweep. But, I ask, "Why not"? Boston is out-performing Dallas in all "four factors" in this series. The Celtics have won six consecutive games vs. the Mavs. They have four elite on-ball defenders to throw at Luka and Kyrie. What if this is just a bad matchup for Dallas? 

Boston Celtics All-Star Jayson Tatum gets into the paint against the Dallas Mavericks in Game 2 of the 2024 NBA Finals at TD Garden. (Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports)

Ultimately, Boston is up 2-0 in the NBA Finals despite Tatum averaging just 17.0 points on 31.6% shooting. You'd think Tatum will eventually go off, and what does that look like for the Mavericks? Plus, more than three-fourths of the action is on Dallas's spread, per Pregame.com. And there's an old sports betting adage that "Public 'dogs get slaughtered" by sportsbooks. 

UNDER 214 in Game 3

This is a de facto elimination game since no team has ever rallied from down 3-0 to win an NBA playoff series. With that in mind, I'm expecting a "pace melt" for Celtics-Mavericks Game 3. Through the first two games of the NBA Finals, the pace was 91.9, which is slower than the 92.7 average pace in the playoffs. 

Dallas doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Boston in a shootout. It makes sense for the Mavs to slow down the tempo and hope Luka wins Game 3 in "clutch time". Besides Dončić, no one is playing well offensively for Dallas. Luka's "Robin", Kyrie Irving, is scoring just 14.0 points per game in the finals on 35.1% shooting. Kyrie hasn't hit a 3-pointer in this series (0 for 8).  

Finally, the market is expecting the Mavericks to shoot better at home and the Celtics to be able to match them. According to Pregame.com, over 80% of the action is on the Over as of 1 p.m. ET Wednesday. It's typically sharp to bet UNDER in primetime games since the public loves betting Overs. 

Dallas Mavericks C Dereck Lively II UNDER 7.5 points

First of all, FanDuel is dealing an "off-market" number for Lively's point prop. Pinnacle Sportsbook, a "market-making" oddsmaker, has the Under for Lively's point-prop priced at -169. DraftKings has the Under at -122 and BetMGM at -130. Legal U.S. sportsbooks will eventually move their odds closer to Pinnacle's number since it is the sharpest shop in the market. 

Dallas Mavericks C Dereck Lively II dunks on Celtics SG Derrick White in Game 2 of the 2024 NBA Finals at TD Garden in Boston. (David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports)

Second, with the injury to Porzingis, Lively might get less playing time in Game 3. The Celtics shoot a lot of threes and the Mavericks will need Lively's elite rim protection less if KP isn't out there. Lively's 69 offensive rating is the second-worst among Mavs who have played at least 10 minutes in the 2024 NBA Finals. 

Most of Lively's shots are around the rim. Per CleaningTheGlass.com, Boston is fourth in field goal rate at the rim allowed this postseason and Dallas is 14th in rate of field goals attempted at the rim. Essentially, the Mavericks stick to mid-range jumpers and threes and the Celtics keep opponents out of the paint. Meaning, Lively probably doesn't get many shots in Game 3. 

Boston Celtics PG Jrue Holiday UNDER 13.5 points

I made a similar bet in Game 2 fading Porzingis after he erupted for 20 points in the series opener. Holiday scored a team-high 26 points on 78.6% shooting (11-for-14) in Game 2, which almost has to regress. He scored just 12 points in Game 1. During the regular season, Holiday scored 14+ points in just 27 of 69 games. 

Also, he is second in usage rate for Boston in the finals among players with at least five minutes of court time. Holiday's true shooting rate, combining 2- and 3-point and free-throw shooting and offensive rating drops in road games. Jrue is Boston's best on-ball defender, so he could save energy for defense.

Boston Celtics SF Jayson Tatum OVER 9.5 rebounds

If Porzingis misses Game 2, Tatum will play closer to the basket. However, Tatum has been rebounding his a-- off this postseason. He is grabbing 10.3 rebounds per game in these playoffs, up from 8.1 rebounds per game in the regular season. Tatum has pulled in double-digit rebounds in 12 of his 16 games this postseason. 

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