2024 NBA Finals Game 2 Best Bets, Picks, Predictions: Dallas Mavericks At Boston Celtics

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After a nine-day break, the Boston Celtics (1-0) beat the brakes off the Dallas Mavericks (0-1) Thursday in Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals. Boston jumped out to a 17-point first-quarter lead, Dallas never recovered, and the Celtics won 107-89. Boston put on a defensive and 3-point shooting clinic in Game 1: The Celtics hit nine more threes (16-7) and held the Mavs to just nine team assists. 

Dallas All-Star Luka Dončić scored a game-high 30 points, but Kyrie Irving added just 12 points on 6-for-19 shooting. The story of Game 1 was the return of Celtics C Kristaps Porzingis, who got hurt in the first round of the playoffs. KP erupted for 18 first-half points and ended with 20. Boston All-Star Jayson Tatum had only 16 points but grabbed 11 boards, and threw 5 assists. Celtics SF Jaylen Brown was the best player in Game 1, scoring a team-high 24 points, and hounding Luka on defense. 

Mavericks at Celtics NBA Finals Game 2 Bet Slip 

  • 1.14 units (u) on Boston -6.5 (-114) at FanDuel.
  • 0.33u on Celtics PF Kristaps Porzingis UNDER 15.5 points (-111) at FanDuel.
  • 0.33u on Boston SF Jaylen Brown OVER 32.5 "Player Combo" (-105) at BetMGM.
  • 0.33u on Dallas PF P.J. Washington OVER 12.5 points (-105) at BetMGM.

Celtics -7 (-110) over Mavericks 

Initially, I wanted to bet Dallas on the "zig-zag" theory, which is fading the previous series game's result. However, John Ewing from BetMGM tweeted Sunday morning that 70% of the money is on the Mavericks. Plus, Pregame.com is reporting that over 60% of the bets in the consensus market are on the Mavs and a slight majority of the cash is on the Celtics. This is enough to keep me off of Dallas in Game 2. 

Also, Porzingis looks fine and almost every Boston player can hit threes, especially at home. The Celtics got five more wide-open threes than the Mavericks in Game 1. "Wide-open" is when the 3-point shooter is at least six feet from the nearest defender. Boston is willing to leave a few Dallas shooters open while the Mavs can't give any Celtic an open look. 

Celtics SF Jaylen Brown shoots a three over Dallas Mavericks PF P.J. Washington in Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals at TD Garden in Boston. (David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports)

Celtics SF Jaylen Brown shoots a three over Dallas Mavericks PF P.J. Washington in Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals at TD Garden in Boston. (David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports)

Lastly, four of Boston's five starters are elite two-way players, so Luka and Kyrie don't have any Celtics "to hunt on defense". Boston PG Jrue Holiday is one of the best on-ball defenders of his generation. Celtics SG Derrick White is the best shot-blocking guard in the NBA. Tatum and Brown are great defensive wings; both are longer and more athletic than Doncic. 

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Boston Celtics C Kristaps Porzingis UNDER 15.5 points

KP shot his a** off last game and almost has to regress Sunday. Porzingis shot 8-for-13 shooting in 20:34 minutes off the bench Thursday. Boston staggered Porzingis's minutes so he was on the floor at the same time as Mavs rookie big Dereck Lively in Game 1. Granted, the Celtics got KP switched onto smaller defenders he could easily shoot over. 

That said, Porzingis only shot 2-for-5 (0-for-2 from behind the arc) when Lively defended him. Mavericks head coach Jason Kidd will make adjustments for Game 2 and I'm expecting Lively won't switch off of KP as much Sunday. Their defense has been much better with Lively on the floor as well. 

Boston Celtics C Kristaps Porzingis posts up Dallas Mavericks C Dereck Lively II during Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals. (David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports)

Boston Celtics C Kristaps Porzingis posts up Dallas Mavericks C Dereck Lively II during Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals.  (David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports)

Finally, as of noon ET Saturday, Pinnacle Sportsbook had Porzingis's Under juiced up to -126 and the Over at -105 while most legal U.S. sportsbooks have equal odds for both sides. Pinnacle is a "market-making" oddsmaker that the legal U.S. shops copy, so FanDuel is booking a "soft number".  

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Boston SF Jaylen Brown OVER 32.5 "Player Combo" (Points, Rebounds, Assists)

First of all, Brown could OVER his 32.5 "player combo" with points alone. Brown will continue to get one-on-one matchups against Dallas's weak defenders because he is Boston's least scary 3-point shooter. This has been the strategy of Celtics opponents all postseason, which is why Tatum and Brown are tied for Boston's highest usage rate at 28.8%. 

Furthermore, Brown has gone Over 32.5 points, rebounds, and assists in nine of his 15 games in these playoffs. He hasn't gotten more than four fouls in any game this postseason and Brown was Luka's primary defender in Game 1. So, Brown will be out there long enough Sunday to accumulate the stats. 

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Dallas Mavericks PF P.J. Washington OVER 12.5 points 

The Mavs need someone besides Luka and Kyrie to step up if they want any chance of winning the 2024 NBA Finals. The most likely candidate is Washington, who is third for minutes played on Dallas in these playoffs. Washington scored 14 points in Game 1 on 5-for-11 shooting and, was left wide open, but went 0-for-3 from behind the arc. 

Moreover, Washington didn't let his poor outside shooting Thursday shake his confidence. He attacked the basket instead of settling for threes and got to the foul line six times in Game 1 (4-for-6). The bottom line is any non-Luka or Kyrie shot is a good defensive possession for the Celtics. Hence Washington will continue to get good looks in Game 2. 

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