2024 NBA Finals Gambling Primer: Dallas Mavericks Vs. Boston Celtics
Reluctantly, I'm here to discuss the 2024 NBA Finals between the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics. I say "reluctantly" because I've gotten my teeth kicked in this season betting on the NBA. After going on a 15-game winning streak during the NBA Play-In Tournament and the first round of the playoffs, I've cooled off significantly.
My disgruntlement aside, it also feels like this Mavericks-Celtics is lacking juice. I mean, the biggest NBA story on the morning of Game 1 is the Los Angeles Lakers possibly giving Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley a blank check to be their next head coach. This is just another example of ESPN butchering its NBA coverage.
But, that's neither here nor there. As a hoops betting junkie, I'll be boozing and ordering Uber Eats for every 2024 NBA Finals game. Plus, I am interested in whether this is the beginning of a Boston dynasty or the Luka Dončić era. The Celtics have their dynamic duo, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, not even in their primes with the best supporting cast in the NBA. Luka will be the favorite to win the NBA MVP next season and, his co-pilot, Kyrie Irving, finally seems normal again.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics NBA Finals 2024
The odds are as of 1:30 p.m. ET Thursday, June 6th.
Series Odds (DraftKings)
- Boston (-210)
- Dallas (+175)
Series Spread (DraftKings)
- Celtics -1.5 (+100)
- Mavericks +2.5 (-120)
Money is pouring in on the Mavs to win the 2024 NBA Finals and it feels like "sucker money". I get Dallas just beat three straight lower seeds in the Western Conference Playoffs and Boston has struggled to cover in its wins this postseason. However, the Celtics have been the favorite to win the title since trading for PG Jrue Holiday this offseason. They won 64 regular-season games and have lost two games in the playoffs.
With this in mind, I'll invoke the handicapping angle of "Public ‘dogs get slaughtered". Usually, when the public backs an underdog, it loses. Since the public loves betting favorites, it’s rare for sportsbooks to root for the better team on paper. Yet, that's what we have in the 2024 NBA Finals. We witnessed Luka and Kyrie torch the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals and Boston "play with its food" in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Celtics beat the Mavs in both regular-season meetings by an average score of 128.5-110.0. One win was pre-trade deadline, the other was afterward, and Dončić and Irving played in both. I mention the trade deadline because Dallas added two starting bigs to their team, C Daniel Gafford and PF P.J. Washington, Feb. 9th.
LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast's 2024 NBA Finals Preview, Celtics-Mavericks Ft. David Troy
Nonetheless, following the trade deadline, Boston led the NBA in non-garbage time net rating (+14.8) and spread differential (+5.4), according to CleaningTheGlass.com. Whereas the Mavericks had a +15.8 adjusted net rating and a +2.0 spread differential.
Also, in their first meeting this season, Boston was on the second of a back-to-back and Dallas had four days' rest. Regardless, the Celtics went on the road and beat the Mavs by nine. Boston All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown crushed the Mavericks. Tatum averaged 35.5 points on 52.5% shooting and Brown put up 29.5 PPG on 57.1% shooting.
The Celtics host the Dallas Mavericks for Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals at TD Garden in Boston Thursday, June 6th. (Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images)
The biggest factor in my pro-Celtics handicap is the gap from Luka and Kyrie to Tatum and Brown is big enough to make up the edge Boston's supporting cast has over Dallas's. Let's agree both tandems average 60+ PPG. Holiday and Boston SG Derrick White will outplay Washington, Gafford, and Mavericks SF Derrick Jones Jr. That's not even factoring in the return of Celtics big Kristaps Porziņģis.
Finally, both teams chuck threes but the Celtics are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. This postseason, Boston is +3.0% in 3-point shooting and Dallas is +1.6%. Between their starting 5 and backup big Al Horford, the Celtics have six good 3-point shooters. While any Dallas possession that ends with a Washington, Gafford, or Jones contested shot is a good one for Boston's defense.
Best Bet: Boston Celtics -1.5 NBA Finals spread (+100)
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2024 NBA Finals MVP Odds (FanDuel)
- Jayson Tatum (-125)
- Luka Dončić (+215)
- Jaylen Brown (+700)
- Kyrie Irving (+1800)
- Kristaps Porziņģis (+3300)
- Derrick White (+3500)
- Jrue Holiday (+10000)
- Al Horford (+37000)
- Derrick Jones Jr. (+50000)
- P.J. Washington (+50000)
- Daniel Gafford (+50000)
- Mavericks C Dereck Lively (+50000)
This is essentially a "value bet". Considering Tatum is -125 to win the 2024 NBA Finals MVP, Brown's +700 odds are disrespectful. Tatum isn't that much better than Brown. He is only averaging one more PPG in these playoffs and Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP. Since the Mavs don't have two guys to guard Tatum and Brown, Dallas will have to pick its poison, so to speak.
Boston Celtics SF Jaylen Brown gets to the hoop on the Dallas Mavericks at TD Garden. (David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, Brown is shooting 54.1% from the field this postseason and Tatum is shooting just 44.2%. Brown's ability to bully defenders gets him good looks inside the paint, and he is shooting 61.5% on twos. Lastly, Tatum is settling for too many threes and 29.0% from behind the arc in the playoffs. Brown will win the Bill Russell Award (NBA Finals MVP) if these shooting splits continue.
Bet: Boston Celtics wing Jaylen Brown (+700)
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.