2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Best Bets From An Analyst Who Went 3-0 Last Year

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The 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest July 4th is up for grabs after Major League Eating (MLE) banned the Michael Jordan of its sport, Joey Chestnut. A 16-time Mustard Belt champion, Chestnut is excommunicado from this year's beef-frank eating showdown for partnering with Impossible Foods, a producer of Vegan protein. 

To put into context Chestnut's dominance, he had -4000 odds to win the 2023 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, which is a 97.6% implied win probability. Geoffrey Esper, a three-time runner-up to Chestnut, is the favorite to win this year's hot dog eating contest at DraftKings (-115). Esper ate 13 fewer hot dogs than Chestnut last year (62-49). 

The women's winner, Miki Sudo, and men's champion, Joey Chestnut, after the 2023 Nathan's Dog Eating Contest on July 4, 2023 in Coney Island, Brooklyn. (Alexi J. Rosenfeld/Getty Images)

The women's winner, Miki Sudo, and men's champion, Joey Chestnut, after the 2023 Nathan's Dog Eating Contest on July 4, 2023 in Coney Island, Brooklyn. (Alexi J. Rosenfeld/Getty Images)

After successfully cashing all three bets last year, I'm ready to "run it back". But, before getting into the best bets, let's review the rules of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest: 

  • There is a 10-minute time limit for eating the most hot dogs and buns (HBD).
  • The top five eaters in the field get a paycheck.
  • A mustard-yellow belt is awarded to the men's champion and the lady's winner receives a pink-colored strap.
  • Water and other beverages are allowed.
  • Condiments are permitted but usually not used.
  • Hot dogs being chewed as the final buzzer goes off count if swallowed.
  • Sloppy eating and puking can lead to penalties.
  • A sudden death "eat-off" will break a tie at the end of regulation.

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Championship Competitors, Odds 

The odds are courtesy of DraftKings as of 3:50 p.m. ET Wednesday, July 3. 

Men's Bracket

  • Geoffrey Esper (-115)
  • JAMES WEBB (+175)
  • Nick Wehry (+750)
  • Patrick Bertoletti (+1000)
  • Field (+2500)
  • Gideon Oji (+4000)
  • Derek Hendrickson (+7500)
  • Darrien Thomas (+7500)
  • Max Stanford (+7500)
  • George Chiger (+7500)

Women's Bracket 

  • Miki Sudo (-900)
  • Mayoi Ebihara (+500)
  • Michelle Lesco (+2200)
  • Katie Prettyman (+5000)
  • Field (+5000)
  • Larell Marie Mele (+10000)

There is no value in this market since Sudo has won nine consecutive pink belts. 

James Webb to win the Men's Bracket (+175) 

Esper, the betting favorite, knows this is his shot at winning the Mustard Belt finally. He told the NY Post: "If I get second place again I’m going to be like, ‘ah, not again'. It’s a lot more pressure, I’ll tell you that". Not only is Esper feeling the pressure, but Webb is peaking at the right time. 

The Aussie is MLE's fifth-ranked eater and has set five world records this year. Per his Bib Sheet, Webb scarfed 70 glazed donuts in eight minutes, 51 2.5-ounce Texas sausages in 10 minutes, 350 donut holes in eight minutes, 338 pistachios in eight minutes, 224 chicken wings in 10 minutes, and 13.5 pounds of fudge in eight minutes in 2024. 

Also, Webb reduced the gap between him and Esper last year. In his Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest debut in 2022, Webb downed 41 franks while Esper ate 47.5. But, last year, he ate 47 HBD, two fewer than Esper. Finally, Webb is a full-time competitive eater. Whereas Esper moonlights in this sport and is a full-time school teacher. 

Miki Sudo/Nick Wehry Combined Hot Dogs Eaten

  • 85.5 or more (-145)
  • 85.5 or less (+115)

This is the first family of competitive eating. Wehry proposed to Sudo in 2021, and they have a child together. Yet, I'm fading MLE's power couple. Wehry is averaging just 39.25 HBD in his six career Nathan's contests with a record-high of 45 last year. Sudo is a nine-time Nathan's women's champion but has only eaten 40+ HBD three times. Both would have to overachieve to combine for more than 85.5 HBD eaten. 

Nick Wehry vs. Patrick Bertoletti (+130)

I'm going off of Bertoletti's recent form. Aka Deep Dish, Bertoletti won the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier in Cleveland, Ohio by taking down 48.25 HBD. Bertoletti ate a career-best 51 HBD in the 2012 Nathan's contest. At a plus-money payout, give me Bertoletti's ceiling and experience. 

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