2024 Emirates NBA Cup Semifinals Best Bets: Hawks-Bucks, Rockets-Thunder

If there was ever a time to bet on the NBA before Christmas, it's the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup Semifinals Saturday, December 14 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Army vs. Navy is the only college football game this weekend and there are two Saturday games in the NFL next week. For those who wager on the Association, or people who (responsibly) crave sports betting action like myself, keep reading for my looks in the NBA Cup semifinals. 

NBA Cup 2024 Semifinals Best Bets 

• Atlanta Hawks +4 (-110) vs. Milwaukee Bucks via DraftKings, risking 1.10 units (u).
• Hawks moneyline (+154) vs. Bucks via DraftKings, risking 0.5u.
• Atlanta SG Dyson Daniels OVER 11.5 points (-115) via FanDuel, risking 0.5u.
• Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 (-108) vs. Houston Rockets via FanDuel, risking 1.08u.
• Thunder C Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 3.5 assists (-115) via FanDuel, risking 0.5u.
• Rockets C Alperen Sengun UNDER 19.5 points (-110) via BetMGM, risking 0.5u.

Hawks (+4) at Bucks, 4:30 p.m. ET

As much as I "basketball-hate" Trae Young, Atlanta (14-12) did a fantastic job building around him. Young's heliocentric style fits this roster because glue guys surround him. His diminutive stature makes Young a defensive liability, but the Hawks' other starters are athletic, lengthy, and can defend. 

Furthermore, Atlanta hustles more than Milwaukee (13-11). The Hawks have the highest rebounding rate in the NBA over the last six games. They have more deflections (19.6-16.1) and loose balls recovered (5.1-3.9) than the Bucks. Also, Atlanta is third in assists per game, and Milwaukee is 25th. 

The Atlanta Hawks meet the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2024 NBA Cup Semifinals at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas (Michael McLoone-Imagn Images)

Young leads the NBA with 12.2 assists per game and is a true floor general. With that in mind, the Bucks don't have anyone to defend Young, whereas the Hawks can sic SG Dyson Daniels, the NBA's leader in steals per game (3.0), on Bucks All-Star PG Damian Lillard. 

Speaking of "hustle", Atlanta can kill Milwaukee in transition. The Hawks are sixth in fastbreak points per game (PPG) and the Bucks are 23rd in fastbreak PPG allowed while ranking last in offensive rebounding rate. Hence, Milwaukee doesn't crash the glass and still doesn't get back on defense. 

Player Prop: Atlanta SG Dyson Daniels OVER 11.5 points 

Daniels will be tasked with slowing down Dame Time. This is simple basketball logic, but if you see your teammate busting his a** on defense, you want him to get shots up, to keep him engaged and happy. Plus, Daniels doesn't need plays run for him to score since he crashes the glass and creates turnovers. 

Perhaps Daniels gets a couple of easy putbacks or layups after a steal. Despite being a poor shooter, Daniels averages 13.5 PPG. He's scored 12+ points in 13 of his 24 games this season. This month, Daniels has a 118 offensive rating, up from his 104 offensive rating on the season. 

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Rockets at Thunder (-5.5), 8:30 p.m. ET

People need to pump the brakes on calling Houston (17-8) a "title contender". Bill Simmons said the Rockets are the third-best team in the West on his podcast, which is laughable. Oklahoma City (19-5), the Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies, Golden State Warriors, and Phoenix Suns would all beat Houston in a seven-game series. 

That said, "casual" NBA fans might see "Rockets +5.5" and think it's too big of a spread for the Thunder to cover. Yet, DunksAndThrees.com's power rankings include strength of strength. Oklahoma City has a +10.1 net rating, according to that site, and Houston has a +3.6 net rating. 

The Oklahoma City Thunder face the Houston Rockets in the 2024 NBA Cup Semifinals Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. (Troy Taormina-Imagn Images)

The NBA is all about the 3-pointer nowadays and the Rockets cannot shoot worth sh*t. They are 27th in effective field goal shooting, which factors in 2- and 3-point shooting rates. SF Dillon Brooks is the only decent 3-point shooter in Houston's rotation. OKC has four guys hitting better than 38% from deep that play at least 20 minutes per game. 

Over the last six games, the Thunder are getting roughly 10 more wide-open 3-point attempts per game than the Rockets. Lastly, Oklahoma City 2023-24 NBA MVP finalist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is on a warpath: Shai is averaging 32.6 PPG on 52.8% shooting over the last 10 games. 

Player Prop: Rockets C Alperen Sengun UNDER 19.5 points 

Thunder C Isaiah Hartenstein is going to lock Sengun up. OKC is second in PPG allowed to opposing centers and Hartenstein is one of the better defensive bigs in the NBA. Granted, Sengun scored 20 points vs. OKC with Hartenstein on December 1, but he shot just 7-for-17 from the field. Otherwise, Sengun has scored 20+ points in 12 of his 25 games this season. 

Houston Rockets C Alperen Sengun tries to secure the ball from Oklahoma City Thunder C Isaiah Hartenstein and PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Toyota Center. (Troy Taormina-Imagn Images)

Player Prop: Thunder C Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 3.5 assists 

Hartenstein has thrown 4+ assists in six of his nine games this season. Per CTG, Hartenstein's 19.6% assist rate is in the 90th percentile of bigs in the NBA. OKC doesn't have a traditional point guard and will run plays with Hartenstein as its "point center". The Knicks did the same thing, and Hartenstein dished 4+ assists in seven of his 13 in the playoff games last season. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.