2024 Emirates NBA Cup Quarterfinals Best Bets: Magic-Bucks, Mavericks-Thunder
OK, I know most sports fans don't take the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup seriously. This is the NBA Cup's second year and the Association's reputation, and product, are in the dumps right now. Yet, for a lifelong fan like myself, the NBA Cup has been pretty cool. Or, at least, the players seem like they are taking it seriously, which is all you can ask for nowadays.
The knockout stages of the NBA Cup tip off Tuesday with a TNT doubleheader and the other two quarterfinal games are Wednesday. Then the NBA Cup heads to Las Vegas for the semifinals Saturday, December 14, and the finals next Tuesday, December 17. Without further ado, here are my picks for the first two quarterfinal games.
Best Bets for NBA Cup 2024: Tuesday, December 10
- Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 (-112) vs. Orlando Magic via FanDuel, risking 1.12 units (u).
- Dallas Mavericks +4.5 (-110) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder via BetMGM, risking 1.1u.
Magic at Bucks (-6.5), 7 p.m. ET
In December 2023, Milwaukee closed as a -8.5 favorite at home vs. Orlando. The Bucks had their Big 3 — Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and Khris Middleton — and Magic All-Star PF Paolo Banchero and SG Franz Wagner both played. Milwaukee's Big 3 will play Tuesday, but Orlando will be without Paolo and Wagner.
Granted, Middleton isn't at the peak of his powers. This is his third game back and his season debut was Friday in the Bucks' 111-105 loss to the Boston Celtics. However, Banchero looked like an All-NBA guy before getting hurt, albeit in five games. Wagner is the Magic's second-leading scorer at 24.4 points per game (PPG) and their leader in assists per game (5.7).
Also, I try not to use motivation or "narratives" in my handicapping. But, a 2024 NBA Cup title, as stupid as it sounds, would be a nice boost in morale for the Bucks. Between injuries and poor play, they've gotten off to a disappointing start. Milwaukee is starting to turn it around though. Since November, the Bucks are 41.8% from 3-point range.
The Milwaukee Bucks face the Orlando Magic in the quarterfinals of the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup Tuesday at Fiserv Forum. (John Jones-Imagn Images)
The Magic are phenomenal at home and terrible on the road. They are 10-0 straight up (SU) at home with a +14.4 scoring margin and 7-9 SU on the road with a -1.9 scoring margin. The Bucks are tough to beat when their role players are knocking down 3-pointers and role players usually shoot better at home.
Milwaukee was +1400 to win the NBA title at DraftKings preseason and Orlando was +6500. The Magic are missing their two best players and struggle on the road. The Bucks are peaking and underrated in the market. Maybe I'm a sucker, but the Bucks should be at least -9 favorites here.
Prediction: Milwaukee 115, Orlando 100
_____________________________
Mavericks (+4.5) at Thunder, 9:30 p.m. ET
Simply put, I'd rather back Dallas (16-8) All-Stars Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving in a high-profile game than Oklahoma City (18-5) All-Star PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Even though Shai is the second betting favorite to win the 2024-25 NBA MVP at DraftKings, Luka is the best player on the floor.
Furthermore, the Thunder already lost to the Mavs without Dončić at home in their season's first meeting last month. OKC didn't have bigs Chet Holmgren or Isaiah Hartenstein either, but the Thunder closed as -7 home favorites. Seven Mavericks scored 10+ points and out-rebounded the Thunder 53-29.
The Dallas Mavericks visits the Oklahoma City Thunder at Paycom Center Tuesday in the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup quarterfinals. (Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images)
Oklahoma City relies on creating turnovers with intense defense. But, Luka and Kyrie won't be rattled by OKC's defense. Otherwise, Dallas is the better rebounding and shooting team. Plus, the Thunder are 28th in free throws per game and 26th in free-throw attempts allowed per game.
Ultimately, this will probably be a close game late, so the value is the Mavericks +4.5 here. Depending on how the first NBA Cup goes, I might put a half-unit on their spread, which I'll post about on X, because I trust Luka and Kyrie in "clutch time".
Prediction: Dallas 116, Oklahoma City 114
_____________________________
Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.