3 Picks In 2024 Emirates NBA Cup Tuesday Includes Milwaukee Bucks Vs. Miami Heat
If I don't have a winning night in the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup Tuesday, this will be my last hurrah betting on the Association until Christmas. I'm beating the market on my NBA best bets with a +1.9% rate on "closing line value" (CLV), but I have an -18.6% return on investment. That rate of losing, despite "getting it in good" most times, is soul-crushing.
For example, I went 0-3 Monday while getting positive CLV for both of my spread picks, and my Over 13.5 points bet for Knicks SF Josh Hart stayed Under when he finished with 12 on 5-for-5 shooting (1-for-1 from the foul line) and New York scored 145 points. With that in mind, perhaps fade my picks for the NBA Cup Tuesday since I'm clearly cursed.
NBA Best Bets for November 26
- Miami Heat -2 (-110) vs. the Milwaukee Bucks via FanDuel, risking 1.1 units (u).
- Minnesota Timberwolves PF Julius Randle OVER 19.5 Points vs. the Houston Rockets via FanDuel, risking 0.56u.
- Utah Jazz +2.5 (-110) vs. the San Antonio Spurs via BetMGM, risking 1.1u.
Bucks at Heat (-2), 7:30 p.m. ET
Milwaukee (8-9) is likely to close as a "public underdog", which gets slaughtered by sportsbooks. Per Pregame.com, more than 60% of the bets are on the Bucks as of 1 p.m. ET Tuesday. They had +1100 odds to win the NBA title entering the season, and the Heat (7-7) were +4000. Despite that and the one-way betting action towards Milwaukee, Miami is still a slight favorite.
Also, the Heat are a better 3-point shooting team and typically win the battle for possessions. Miami has a +1.4 differential in made 3-pointers per game and Milwaukee has a -1.1. The Heat have a better assist-to-turnover ratio (2.02-1.70) and average +1.3 more shots per game than their foes while the Bucks have a -4.6 margin in shots per game.
Milwaukee Bucks All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo goes to the basket on Miami Heat C Bam Adebayo at Kaseya Center in the 2023 NBA Cup. (Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)
Finally, this is a better spot for Miami. Milwaukee goes on the road after a four-game home-stand and Miami is playing its third straight home game. The Bucks are 1-6 straight up (SU) and 2-5 against the spread (ATS) in road games with a -8.1 spread differential. Over the last two weeks, Milwaukee has a +1.3 ATS margin and Miami has a +5.4, per CleaningTheGlass.com.
Prediction: Miami 117, Milwaukee 110
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Player Prop in Rockets at Timberwolves, 8 p.m. ET
Houston (12-6) heads to Minnesota (8-8) for their first meeting this season. The T-Wolves swept the season series 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) with the Rockets last season. For what it's worth, I lean toward the Timberwolves winning and covering as -3.5 home favorites Tuesday. However, I prefer the Over for Randle 20.5 points instead.
Randle has scored 22+ points in nine of his 16 games this season and four of his seven home games. His 3-point percentage (41.0-30.8%) and offensive rating (124-116) significantly improve at home. Last season, Randle scored 31 points on 57.9% shooting in his one game vs. Houston while playing for the New York Knicks.
Bet Minnesota Timberwolves PF Julius Randle OVER 20.5 points (-111) at FanDuel
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Spurs at Jazz (+2.5), 9 p.m. ET
San Antonio (9-8) has won and covered two of its three meetings with Utah (4-12) this season. The Spurs beat the Jazz 126-118 without Victor Wembanyama as -3 home favorites Thursday. People will look at San Antonio winning without Wemby and figure the Spurs will do so again with him, which makes sense.
In fact, according to Pregame.com, Spurs-Jazz is a Pros vs. Joes game in the betting market. Nearly 70% of the bets at the time of writing are on San Antonio ATS, whereas roughly 60% of the money bet is on Utah. Typically, it's wise to follow the money when it's counter to the public in sports betting.
San Antonio Spurs big Victor Wembanyama drives to the hoop on the Utah Jazz guard at Delta Center. (Rob Gray-Imagn Images)
But, Utah held a 20-point lead in its loss to San Antonio last week and was leading going into the fourth quarter. Plus, the zigzag theory is in effect. That's when you bet the team that just lost in their rematch since it's tough to beat the same team consecutively in a short period.
The Spurs are a completely different team away from home. They score 13.8 fewer points per game (PPG) on the road (114.6-100.8 PPG) and shoot 70 percentage points worse from the field (48.3-41.3% field goal rate). San Antonio is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in away games with a -9.7 scoring margin. Lastly, the Spurs lost by 17 and 27 points in their last two road games.
Prediction: Utah 113, San Antonio 110
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