Milwaukee Bucks Are A 'Live Dog' Vs. Oklahoma City Thunder In 2024 Emirates NBA Cup Championship

Heads up (because I know no one is paying attention): The 2024 Emirates NBA Cup Championship between the Milwaukee Bucks (14-11) and Oklahoma City Thunder (20-5) tips off Tuesday at 8:30 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Milwaukee beat the Atlanta Hawks 110-102 in the NBA Cup semifinals, and OKC destroyed the Houston Rockets 111-96. 

The Thunder are rightfully the highest-power-rated team in the market through the first two months of the NBA season. However, the Bucks are playing well after a slow start: Milwaukee is 12-3 in the previous 15 games. Plus, Bucks three-time All-Star, and 2021 NBA champion, Khris Middleton returned to action four games ago. 

Granted, Middleton is scoring just 7.0 points per game (PPG) in 21.3 minutes. But, he has a +11.7 on/off net rating in non-garbage time, according to CleaningTheGlass.com. That said, as long as Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Damian Lillard are healthy, Milwaukee should be a top-10 team in the Association. 

Furthermore, with all due respect to Oklahoma City All-Star PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis is the best player in this game, which is important for a must-win game. Antetokounmpo is scoring an NBA-best 32.7 PPG on a career-high 61.4% shooting with 11.5 rebounds and 6.1 assists. 

Also, Milwaukee has a strength-on-weakness edge in free-throw discrepancy. The Thunder attempt 5.6 fewer free throws per game than the opponents and the Bucks have a +2.3 free-throw-per-game margin. On top of that, Oklahoma City relies on creating turnovers, but Milwaukee doesn't turn the ball over. 

Milwaukee Bucks All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo goes to the rack vs. the Atlanta Hawks in the semifinals of the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. (Kyle Terada-Imagn Images)

The Bucks are shooting better from behind the arc than the Thunder this month (40.3-36.7%) and have a better shot quality on both ends of the floor. Milwaukee is shooting a higher volume of 3-pointers and attacking the rim more than OKC. The Bucks are allowing fewer 3-pointers and shots at the rim defensively too. 

Even though the TV ratings and ticket pricing for the NBA Cup are embarrassing, this might be the rare NBA game where public betting splits matter. After all, there is no football to bet Tuesday. Per Pregame.com, more than 90% of the money is on OKC as of 11 a.m. ET Tuesday morning. You don't need me to tell you that 90% of sports bettors don't beat The House. 

Prediction: Bucks 109, Thunder 105 

• I'm betting 1.05 units (u) on the Bucks +5 (-105) and sprinkling a 0.5u on Milwaukee's +180 moneyline at Caesars Sportsbook, which has the best available odds for my wagers. For example, let's say your average "unit" is $10, I'm risking $10.50 on the Bucks to cover and $5 on them to win outright.

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Player Prop: Milwaukee Bucks SG Gary Trent Jr. OVER 1.5 made 3-pointers 

First of all, you should always look for the best odds before placing a bet. With that in mind, FanDuel has the Over for Trent's made 3-pointer prop at -110. In contrast, DraftKings has the Over at -115 and Pinnacle Sportsbook has it at -117. Pinnacle is a "market-making" offshore shop. So, whenever legal U.S. oddsmakers are different, I side with Pinnacle. 

Nonetheless, Trent has hit at least two 3-pointers in 15 of 23 games this season while shooting 38.8% from behind the arc. Lastly, the Thunder aren't game-planning to stop Trent. If he's on the floor with Dame or Giannis, Trent will get great looks from 3-point range. 

Bet 0.28u on Bucks SG Gary Trent Jr. OVER 1.5 made 3-pointers 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.