Three 'Best Bets' For The Final Day 2024 Emirates NBA Group Play December 3

If you aren't fading my NBA picks, there is something wrong with you because I'm cursed. Entering the final day of group play in the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup Tuesday, December 3, I'm 43-59-1 this season. I'm +2% in closing line value on my picks with a -20.8% return on investment. It's almost impossible to run that badly, but I keep ripping defeat out of the jaws of victory. 

What's even better for people looking to profit off my unlucky, or terrible, basketball betting is I'm fading the two hottest teams in the NBA Tuesday and backing the team with the worst record last season. What could go wrong? "Trust the process", "I'm due for a hot streak", blah blah blah. Here's how I'm burning money in the Association Tuesday. 

NBA Cup 2024 Best Bets: December 3

• Detroit Pistons +3.5 (-115) vs. the Milwaukee Bucks via BetMGM, risking 1.15 units (u).
• New York Knicks -4.5 (-108) vs. the Orlando Magic via DraftKings, risking 1.08u.
• Sacramento Kings moneyline (-115) vs. the Houston Rockets via Fanatics Sportsbook, risking 1.15u.

Pistons (+3.5) at Bucks, 7 p.m. ET

This is a revenge game for me and Detroit because we (yes, I'm counting myself in this since I bet the Pistons +6.5) lost to Milwaukee 127-120 in overtime November 13. First of all, losing with a +6.5 underdog in an overtime game is the epitome of a bad beat. Detroit SF Ron Holland II missed two free throws at the end of regulation, and he is an 80.8% free-throw shooter. 

More importantly, the Pistons were the "right side". They won three quarters, held the biggest lead in the game (18 points), and led for 36:11 minutes compared to the Bucks leading for just 10:39 minutes. Detroit scored more fastbreak points and points in the paint. 

To be fair, Milwaukee was missing All-Star PG Damian Lillard. But, Giannis Antetokounmpo scored a season-high 59 points and hit 16-of-17 free throws. This isn't something the Bucks can count on because Giannis is shooting a career-worst 61.2% from the foul line this season. 

Milwaukee Bucks PF Giannis Antetokounmpo celebrates after scoring a basket in overtime vs. the Detroit Pistons at Fiserv Forum. (Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images)

Speaking of "unsustainable shooting", Milwaukee hit 42.9% from behind the arc vs. Detroit last month. However, The Bucks are 40.3% from deep and score 117.5 points per game (PPG) at home vs. 35.7% from 3-point range and 107.6 PPG on the road. They'll likely need big games by Giannis and Dame to cover Tuesday. 

Given all this, Milwaukee -3/-3.5 seems like a trap line. According to Pregame.com, roughly 85% of the action is on the Bucks as of noon ET, but the line is moving toward Detroit. Lastly, home underdogs have a 54.5% cover rate this season, the highest among all spread trends. 

Prediction: Detroit 110, Milwaukee 106

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Magic at Knicks (-4.5), 7:30 p.m. ET

This is a sell-high spot for the Magic, who are 9-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) over their last 10 and have a six-game winning streak. They are easy to defend because they are 21st in true shooting rate, which accounts for 2-point, 3-point, and free-throw shooting. 

Furthermore, All-Star Paolo Banchero is still injured, and Orlando runs its offense through SG Franz Wagner, who averages six more field goals than his teammates. That said, New York has three elite defenders to throw at Wagner, such as wings OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart. 

New York Knicks wing Josh Hart closes out on a Brooklyn Nets SG Dennis Schroder 3-pointer in the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup at Madison Square Garden. (Brad Penner-Imagn Images)

The Knicks crushed the Magic 98-74 in their final meeting last season at home. Granted, NYK had former big Isaiah Hartenstein, who is a much better defender than Knicks All-Star big Karl-Anthony Towns. Yet, Orlando had Banchero in that game and a higher offensive rating last season than this, and New York leads the NBA in offensive rating. 

Also, the Knicks and Magic play much better at home. New York is 6-2 SU with a +14.1 scoring margin at home and 4-3-1 ATS with a +5.7 spread differential. Orlando is 9-0 SU at home but 6-7 SU and ATS on the road. Finally, the Magic are third in points per game (PPG) off turnovers and the Knicks allow the fourth-fewest PPG off of turnovers. 

Prediction: New York 112, Orlando 102

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Rockets at Kings (-115), 10 p.m. ET

Per Pregame.com, nearly three-fourths of the action is on Houston's moneyline. Nonetheless, Sacramento has gone from a slight 'dog in the opener (+120) to a slight favorite currently. That line movement is sketchy considering the Rockets beat the 1-seed Oklahoma City Thunder Sunday, the Kings are below .500, and Houston was 3-0 SU and ATS vs. Sactown last season. 

Moreover, the Rockets rely on hustle points: Houston is fifth in points per game off turnovers and second in second-chance PPG. But, the Kings are third in defensive rebounding rate, and their two highest usage players — PG De'Aaron Fox and SF DeMar DeRozan — don't turn the ball over. 

Sacramento Kings SG Malik Monk goes to the rack on the Houston Rockets at Golden 1 Center. (Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images)

Ultimately, Sacramento's roster has no business being 9-12". Kings coach Mike Brown inserted SG Malik Monk into the starting 5. While I prefer Monk off the bench, I'm encouraged by Brown changing things. Monk is Sactown's fourth-leading scorer and plays better as a starter. Perhaps Monk gives the Kings the boost they need. 

Prediction: Sacramento 114, Houston 110 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.