Back These Three Road Underdogs Friday In The 2024 Emirates NBA Cup
I'm going back to the drawing board with my bets on the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup Friday. When I was making money betting the NBA a couple of years ago, I considered betting splits more than I have in recent seasons. I stopped paying attention to betting splits because I've heard enough professional sports bettors say that stuff is useless.
That said, what I've done this season and last isn't working. I'm tired of losing money and excusing those losses with "right bet, wrong results" or bowing at the altar of "Closing Line Value". Instead, I'm making those uncomfortable bets, selling and buying teams like they were stocks, and fading the public. Hopefully, this works or else it'll be a long winter betting the Association.
NBA Best Bets: Friday, November 22
- Portland Trail Blazers +12.5 (-110) vs. Houston Rockets at Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.1 units (u).
- Indiana Pacers +5.5 (-110) vs. Milwaukee Bucks at BetMGM, risking 1.1u.
- Dallas Mavericks +3 (-110) vs. Denver Nuggets at FanDuel, risking 1.1u.
Trail Blazers (+12.5) at Rockets, 8 p.m. ET
Trail Blazers (6-9) C Deandre Ayton is doubtful for Friday. But, rookie C Donovan Clingan is already an elite rim protector in the NBA, as is backup big Robert Williams III. Ayton is a terrible defender, so his absence is addition by subtraction. He's missed the last four games and Portland is 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread without Ayton.
That isn't a coincidence. The Trail Blazers are allowing just 106.3 points per game (PPG) on defense over that span and holding their opponents to 29.2% from behind the arc. Per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Portland's opponents are shooting 3.1% worse at the rim when Clingan is on the floor and 7.1% worse when Williams is in the game.
Also, Portland's 109-99 loss at the Oklahoma City Thunder Wednesday was closer than the 10-point margin suggests. The Trail Blazers covered as +12.5 underdogs. They split the four quarters, there were nine lead changes, and the game was tied 10 times, including with 8:56 remaining.
Furthermore, Thunder C Isaiah Hartenstein made his team debut against the Trail Blazers Wednesday. Hartenstein is one of the best rebounding and passing bigs in the Association, and Oklahoma City is better than Houston when Hartenstein plays.
Finally, Houston (11-5) relies on getting second-chance points because it is 27th in true shooting percentage, which factors in 2-point, 3-point, and free-throw shooting. However, since the Rockets cannot shoot, the Trail Blazers can pack the paint and have more defenders on the glass.
Prediction: Houston 114, Portland 107
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Pacers (+5.5) at Bucks, 8 p.m. ET
Everyone is betting the Bucks (6-9) since this is their revenge game after the Pacers (6-9) eliminated Milwaukee in the first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs last season. According to Pregame.com, nearly 90% of the action is on the Bucks as of 12:40 p.m. ET. With that in mind, wait until closer to tip-off before betting Indiana because we might get a better number.
I'm overlooking Indiana's terrible defense because Milwaukee's offense blows. The only Bucks getting buckets are two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and All-Star PG Damian Lillard. Plus, at least the Pacers have PF Pascal Siakam and C Myles Turner, to throw at Giannis. Siakam and Turner are athletic, long, and good defenders.
Indiana Pacers C Myles Turner blocks Milwaukee Bucks All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo in the 2023 NBA Cup Semifinal at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. (Kyle Terada-Imagn Images)
Lastly, Milwaukee is terrible at defending 3-pointers and Indy has a bunch of sharpshooters. The Bucks are 26th in 3-point attempts allowed per game and 23rd in defensive 3-point percentage. The Pacers can hang in this game, or sneak in the backdoor to cover +5.5, with their 3-point shooting.
Prediction: Milwaukee 118, Indiana 115
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Mavericks (+3) at Nuggets, 10 p.m. ET
Dallas (8-7) All-Star Luka Dončić is out for at least a week with a wrist injury. Because of this, and the possibility of Denver (8-5) three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokić returning from a three-game absence for "personal reasons" (he is questionable as of the NBA's 11:30 a.m. ET injury report), everyone will bet the Nuggets Friday.
In fact, roughly 70% of the action is on them at the time of writing, per Pregame.com. Despite one-way betting traffic towards Denver, Dallas has gone from +4 underdogs on the opener to +3 currently. Either someone in the market knows Jokic isn't returning or sharp NBA bettors are backing the Mavs for whatever reason.
Meanwhile, Mavericks All-Star Kyrie Irving always steps up when his superstar teammates miss games. To be clear, Kyrie isn't good enough to be the best player on a title-contending team. But, Irving is good enough to hold down the fort when Luka and, previously, Kevin Durant or LeBron James missed games.
The public will bet the Nuggets because they beat the Mavs 122-120 with Luka playing earlier this month. Nevertheless, Kyrie dominated Denver that night. Irving scored a game-high 43 points while hitting 17-of-22 shots, grabbing 5 rebounds, and dishing 5 assists.
Dallas upset OKC 121-119 Sunday as +7 road underdogs without Dončić. Kyrie scored an efficient 23 points, Mavs PF P.J. Washington chipped in 27 points and 17 rebounds, and four of their bench players scored in double figures. There is more ball movement with Luka off the floor, which is good in today's NBA with all the 3-point shooting.
Prediction: Dallas 119, Denver 115
- I'd wait until the Nuggets release their official starting 5 before betting the Mavericks. If Jokic plays, Denver's spread will shoot up to -5.5 or higher. If he doesn't, I'm cool with betting Dallas up to -2, which is the highest their line could go. Unfortunately, I need to lock in a bet upon publishing this.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.