2024 Canadian Open Bet Slip: 'Horses For The Course', One-And-Done Pick
Our neighbors to the north host the PGA TOUR’s 2024 RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf & Country Club (G&CC) in Ontario. Countryman Nick Taylor broke Canada’s 69-year losing streak after beating Tommy Fleetwood with a 72-foot eagle putt in a playoff to win last year’s RBC Canadian Open.
Taylor defends his title in a field with four top-20 players in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR): World No. 2, and two-time Canadian Open champion, Rory McIlroy, No. 12 Sahith Theegala, and No. 13 Fleetwood, and No. 17 Cameron Young. Rory won the 2019 Canadian Open, the last time it was held at this course. No. 33 Shane Lowry tees it up this week at Hamilton G&CC and finished T2 in 2019, seven strokes behind McIlroy.
Martin Ebert renovated Hamilton after the 2019 Canadian Open. Ebert and his team "advises eight of the 10 venues in The (British) Open rota, including this year’s host, Royal Troon", according to PGATOUR.com, and Royal Liverpool, host of last year’s Open Championship. Remember, Rory and Lowry finished first and second in the 2019 Canadian Open at Hamilton. McIlroy won the 2014 Open Championship in Liverpool and Lowry won in 2019 at Troon.
For the record, my PGA TOUR 2024 betting season has been an abject disaster. I'm down -54.86 units (u) after bricking the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge. Three of my winning picks missed the cut and none were in contention Sunday as Davis Riley won the Charles Schwab by five strokes. At this point, I'm just hoping to break even until the start of football season.
RBC Canadian Open 2024 Betting Card
Stats courtesy of Bet The Number from the Tour Junkies and the PGA Tour.
‘Horses for the Course’
The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks as of 12:30 p.m. ET Tuesday, May 28th.
Rory McIlroy (+400)
I’m just sick of wasting money on guys who can’t win. I know Rory can win. There isn’t a leak in McIlroy's game right now, hence the +375 odds. He is dialed in with the irons, rolling the rock well on the greens, and crushing the ball OTT. Rory won back-to-back events: The Zurich Classic team event with Lowry and the Wells Fargo Championship, a "signature event" on TOUR. Rory finished T12 at the 2024 PGA Championship.
Furthermore, McIlroy getting a divorce frees him up to golf with the boys. Regardless of who’s right or wrong, we can all agree it sucks being in a failing relationship. Rory won his fourth Wells Fargo a day before filing for a divorce and I’m assuming his divorce didn’t come out of nowhere.
Rory McIlroy poses with the trophy and two members of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police after winning the 2019 RBC Canadian Open golf tournament at Hamilton Golf & Country Club. (Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports)
Finally, McIlroy can overpower Hamilton G&CC even after the renovations. Rory is a two-time Canadian Open champion and won in 2019 at Hamilton G&CC by seven strokes. He hit the ball 27.2 yards further OTT per drive than the field at Hamilton G&CC in 2019, per DataGolf.com. Over the last 36 rounds, McIlroy is second in Strokes Gained (SG): Off-the-Tee (OTT), and Ball Speed and fourth in Carry Distance, according to Bet The Number.
BET 2.5u on Rory McIlroy (+400) at BetMGM to win 10u.
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Robert MacIntyre (+8000)
Due to Ebert’s involvement with the Open rota courses, my Canadian Open betting card has three Europeans with success on the DP World Tour and links-style courses. MacIntyre has two career wins on the DP World Tour, a T6 in the 2019 Open Championship at Royal Portrush and a T8 in the 2021 Open at Royal St. George’s Golf Club.
Rory beat MacIntyre by one stroke at the co-sanctioned Genesis Scottish Open in July 2023 with back-to-back birdies at Holes No. 17 and 18 in the final round. Otherwise, MacIntyre would have a win on the PGA TOUR too. The Scot missed the cut at last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge but finished T8 at the 2024 PGA Championship and T13 at the Myrtle Beach Classic earlier this month.
Robert MacIntyre hits an approach shot on the 18th hole during the final round of the 150th Open Championship at St. Andrews Old Course in Scotland. (Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, MacIntyre is good with his long irons, strong from the bunker, and putting his a** off lately. The 27-year-old leads the TOUR this season on approach (APP) shots from 200+. He is 12th in Sand Save rate over the last 36 rounds, per Bet The Number. Finally, MacIntyre has gained strokes on the greens in six consecutive starts with shot-link data, according to DataGolf.com.
BET 0.25u on Robert MacIntyre (+8000) at FanDuel to win 20u.
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Nicolai Højgaard (+9000)
This is Højgaard’s first full season on the PGA TOUR. The Dane made the cut in seven of his 12 starts this season with a second at the Farmers Insurance Open and a T16 at The Masters. However, he’s 40th in the Official World Golf Rankings because he played well on the DP World Tour.
With that in mind, Højgaard has true "win equity". Højgaard won the 2023 DP World Tour Championship in November. The DP World Tour Championship had a loaded field featuring Rory, Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick, etc. The 23-year-old played for the 2023 winning European Ryder Cup team as well.
Lastly, Højgaard flushes it and I think the driver could be the most useful club in the bag at Hamilton G&CC. Højgaard is 26th in this field for SG: OTT, 11th in Ball Speed, and 13th in Carry Distance over the last 36 rounds, according to Bet The Number. Between his high-end talent and power OTT, Højgaard has the game to win the Canadian Open if Rory doesn’t bring his "A" game.
BET 0.25u on Nicolai Højgaard (+9000) at BetMGM to win 22.5u.
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Additional Finishing Position Bets
Make placement bets at BetMGM or DraftKings Sportsbooks. BetMGM doesn't apply "dead heat" rules and DraftKings now has top-5, -10, and -20 bets that "include ties".
Akshay Bhatia Top-20 (+188): 0.75u to profit 1.41u at BetMGM
The 22-year-old already has two career PGA TOUR wins: 2023 Barracuda Championship and 2024 Valero Texas Open. Bhatia is 12th in total SG this season, which is better than all but four golfers in the 2024 RBC Canadian Open field (Rory, Alex Noren, Theegala, and Maverick McNealy).
Akshay Bhatia poses with a pair of boots after winning a playoff in the final round of the 2024 Valero Texas Open in San Antonio. (Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports)
He has finished T18 or better seven times this season. This includes his Texas Open win, T14 at The Sentry ("signature event"), T13 at the Sony Open, T13 at the Farmers, T17 at the Valspar Championship, T11 at the Texas Children's Houston Open, and T18 at the RBC Heritage ("signature event").
Doug Ghim Top-20 (+275): 0.5u to profit 1.38u at BetMGM
This is just a "value bet" since Ghim is 14th in my 2024 RBC Canadian Open power rankings built on the tools of Bet The Number. Over the last 36 rounds, Ghim is 15th in this field for SG: OTT and 10th in SG: APP. He finished T12 at last year's RBC Canadian Open and T18 in 2022. Ghim had five consecutive T16 or better finishes earlier this season: T13 at the Farmers, T12 at the WM Phoenix Open, T8 at the Mexico Open, T16 at the Cognizant Classic, and T16 at THE PLAYERS Championship.
Cameron Young Top-10 (+235): 0.5u to profit 1.18u at DraftKings
Golf gambling analyst Pat Mayo said on his weekly best bets show for the 2024 RBC Canadian Open: "The last three times that Cam Young has played in a non-"signature event", he's come second, fourth, and eighth". Plus, Young plays well at links-style courses. He finished second at the 2022 Open Championship and T8 at last year's Open.
Moreover, Young ranks eighth in my 2024 RBC Canadian Open power rankings because his driver is a weapon. Over the last 36 rounds, Young is 12th in this field for SG: OTT and seventh in Ball Speed, per Bet The Number. He is 12th in SG: APP in his last nine starts, which include five "signature events" and two majors.
Shane Lowry Top-10 (+225): 0.5u to profit 1.13u at DraftKings
The 2019 Champion Golfer of the Year won the Open Championship at Royal Troon and finished T2 earlier that year in the RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton G&CC. The Irishman won the 2022 BMW PGA Championship on the DP World Tour at Wentworth Golf Club. Ebert worked on all three courses.
Including a win with Rory at the Zurich Classic, Lowry has three additional T6 or better finishes this season: Third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T6 at the 2024 PGA Championship. Lowry leads the PGA TOUR in driving accuracy this season, ranks 10th in SG: APP, and third in Par 4 scoring.
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RBC Canadian Open 2024 One-And-Done Pick: Shane Lowry
Somehow, I'm still "in the money" despite missing a second straight cut with my one-and-done pick for the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge and sixth overall this year. Granted, less than 1% of the 2024 Mayo Cup used Riley last week. After the 19 events of the 2024 Mayo Cup, I'm tied for 630th out of 4,400 entries with $10,100,122 collected. If the league ended today, I'd win $400 on top of my $200 entry fee.
Previous Picks
- J.T. Poston for the Sony Open: 6th for $300,875
- Xander Schauffele for the American Express: T3 for $635,600
- Sahith Theegala for the Farmers Insurance Open: T64 for $19,080
- Jordan Spieth for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: T39 for $70,125
- Tom Kim for the WM Phoenix Open: T17 for $125,400
- Collin Morikawa for the Genesis Invitational: T19 for $251,400
- Taylor Pendrith for the Mexico Open: Missed cut for $0
- Tom Hoge for the Cognizant Classic: T28 for $59,014
- Scottie Scheffler for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: 1st for $4,000,000
- Hideki Matsuyama for THE PLAYERS Championship: T6 for $875,000
- Min Woo Lee for the Valspar Championship: Missed cut for $0
- Keith Mitchell for the Houston Open: Missed cut for $0
- Corey Conners for the Valero Texas Open: T25 for $67,735
- Wyndham Clark for The Masters: Missed cut $0
- Cameron Young for the RBC Heritage: T62 for $43,600
- Adam Scott for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: $52,293
- Rory McIlroy for the Wells Fargo Championship: $3,600,000
- Jon Rahm for the PGA Championship: $0
- Harris English for the Charles Schwab Challenge: $0
Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry pose for fans and the media after winning the 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. (Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)
I already used four of the seven golfers ahead of Lowry in the OWGR in this RBC Canadian Open field: Rory, Theegala, Young, and No. 26 Tom Kim. The other three ranked higher than Lowry are Fleetwood, No. 27 Sam Burns, and No. 30 Taylor. But, Fleetwood's ball striking isn't where I want it to be, Burns is too inaccurate with his driver, and Taylor hasn't played well since winning the WM Phoenix Open in February.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.