BMW Championship 2024 Betting Card From A PGA TOUR Analyst Defending His Title
Like last season, I'm saving my best for last. I hit Hideki Matsuyama at last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship, the first round of the PGA TOUR's FedExCup Playoffs, and I hit Viktor Hovland at the BMW Championship last year. So I'm pumped for the 2024 BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club in Colorado and the course looks amazing.
Matsuyama winning last week's St. Jude put him on my top-five current athlete list. I've been saying Hideki is underrated since I started betting golf in 2021, and he came through for me, again. His St. Jude win added a crucial +16.75 units (u) to my PGA TOUR 2024 (and Olympics) bankroll, which is still -41.08u this year.
Initially, I was focusing on bombers since Castle Pines is 8,100+ yards, but, the elevation nerfs the distance. So, after careful consideration, I've decided to go with accurate ball strikers that are good throughout the bag. Two of my picks are guys that have won for me this year and the other is due for a win. Essentially, I'm going with "my guys" in the playoffs.
BMW Championship 2024 Betting Card
Outright Picks
The odds are the best available from legal U.S. sportsbooks as of 4 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 20.
Collin Morikawa (+1600) at FanDuel
Castle Pines reminds me of a U.S. Open and PGA Championship course. Morikawa won the 2020 PGA Championship and two top-fives at the 2021-22 U.S. Open. According to Fantasy National, Collin is fourth in total Strokes Gained (SG) at several recent U.S. Open and PGA Championship venues.
He tied for fourth at this year’s PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club and finished second at the Memorial, both played at courses designed by the Golden Bear. Morikawa has four more top-10 finishes this season, including T3 at The Masters and ninth in the RBC Heritage.
Collin Morikawa tees off during the final round of the 2024 Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. (Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, we are "buying low" on Collin because he tied for 22nd at last week's St. Jude. Per DataGolf.com, Morikawa gained strokes with his putter and around-the-green (ARG), and his short-game is a weakness. But, he lost strokes with his irons and driver, and Collin is one of the best ball strikers in golf.
Ultimately, I'm betting the two-time major champion has a bounce-back effort with the ball striking. Morikawa's short-game has been on point all year, which is why he's the best PGA TOUR player in 2024 without a win. If Collin puts it all together, he'll get his first win of the season at the BMW.
BET 1.5u on Collin Morikawa (+1600) to profit 24u.
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Hideki Matsuyama (+1800) at DraftKings
I'm rolling with my guy again. Hideki doesn't need his caddie or his swing coach. F*ck it. Matsuyama is the third-best PGA TOUR golfer this season behind World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and No. 2 Xander Schauffele. There is value on Hideki at +1800 because he should be switched with Rory McIlroy at +1200.
Also, Castle Pines is the "Muirfield Village (venue of the Memorial Tournament) in the Rocky Mountains". Nicklaus designed both courses and his biggest influence was the Augusta National Golf Club, host of The Masters. TPC Scottsdale, at the Phoenix Open, is another comp course for Castle Pines. Well, Hideki won the 2014 Memorial, back-to-back Phoenix Opens in 2016-17, and The Masters in 2021.
Hideki Matsuyama poses with the trophy after winning the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship golf tournament at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. )Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports)
Matsuyama has gained strokes tee-to-green in 11 consecutive tournaments with shot-link data, per Fantasy National. He's picked up strokes on the greens in eight of those starts, including +8.2 SG: Putting at the St. Jude last week. Hideki can win any tournament if his putts are falling, and he putts well on the Muirfield and Augusta greens.
The now 10-time PGA TOUR champion had to win the St. Jude twice last weekend. First by having a five-stroke lead going into Sunday. Then, he went down by a stroke to Viktor Hovland before birdieing holes 17 and 18 and winning the St. Jude by two strokes. Again, Matsuyama did this without his swing coach and caddie, showing mental toughness.
Initially, I had Patrick Cantlay at +1800 on my BMW Championship betting card. However, I cashed that bet out and bet Hideki. At +2000 or higher, Cantlay had a good number. But, them being tied on the odds board just reminded me that Matsuyama is underrated and value is value. Basically, I'd rather lose with Hideki at +1800 than Cantlay at +1800.
BET 1.25u on Hideki Matsuyama (+1800) to profit 22.5u.
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Robert MacIntyre (+6600) at BetMGM
Look, I’m not going to lie, I’m biased. MacIntyre is "one of my guys" after I hit him at the RBC Canadian Open. But, the Scot finished T7 at the St. Jude last week and should be priced ahead of several guys at the BMW. MacIntyre won the RBC Canadian and Scottish Opens this year and played for Europe in the 2023 Ryder Cup.
The latter was pretty much a major for MacIntyre since it was his home open. I.e. He is a proven winner of big-boy tournaments and one of the top 20 golfers in the world. However, MacIntyre is priced beneath Cameron Young and Tommy Fleetwood, who have never won a PGA TOUR event.
Robert MacIntyre of Scotland celebrates his 2024 Genesis Scottish Open victory at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick. (Octavio Passos/Getty Images)
On top of his win equity, MacIntyre can hit the ball hard enough to cover the distance at Castle Pines. According to DataGolf.com, he gained distance on the field in 10 consecutive starts. Plus, MacIntyre is fourth in approach shots from 200+ yards on TOUR this year.
Finally, Bobby Mac was T8 at the 2024 PGA Championship and gained strokes in the four main golf stats: Off-the-Tee (OTT), Approach (APP), ARG, and Putting, according to Bet The Number.
BET 0.35u on Robert MacIntyre (+6600) to profit 23.1u.
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Finishing Position Bets
Place finishing position bets at BetMGM, DraftKings, or FanDuel. BetMGM never applies "dead heat" rules. DraftKings and FanDuel have top-5, -10, and -20 bets that "include ties" for the BMW Championship 2024.
Viktor Hovland Top-10 (+135) at DraftKings: 1u to win 1.35u
Now's a good time to buy back into Hovland. He's the reigning BMW champion and crushes at Nicklaus courses. His three best finishes this season are a T2 at last week's St. Jude, third in the 2024 PGA Championship, again, played at a Nicklaus course, and T15 in the Memorial at Jack Place's. Plus, Viktor won last year's Memorial.
Per Bet The Number, Hovland leads the field in SG: OTT over the last 30 rounds and ranks sixth in SG: APP. The six-time PGA TOUR winner has gained strokes with his putter in four straight starts and five of the last six, including the PGA, U.S. Open, Scottish Open, and St. Jude.
Viktor Hovland with Jack Nicklaus after winning the Memorial Tournament in 2023 at Muirfield in Dublin, Ohio. (Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Hovland's chipping is a disaster. But, besides a few weeks last season, his chipping always sucks. It's less of a concern this week because Nicklaus courses have long APP shots into small greens. If golfers are missing greens and chipping, they aren't going to win the 2024 BMW anyways.
Tony Finau Top-10 (+200) at DraftKings: 0.75u to win 1.5u
This is mostly a random "gut play". Don't get me wrong, Finau is playing well lately and his ball-striking numbers are fantastic. However, Finau always models well and I rarely bet him. For instance, Tony is second behind Scheffler in my 30-round model at Bet The Number.
I'm taking Tony at the BMW because he's a Utah native, familiar with playing at elevation, and the ball striking, of course. Over the last 30 rounds, Finau is fifth in Ball Speed, third in both SG: APP and Par 5 scoring. "Par 5 scoring" is my favorite metric because you have to use several clubs and those are the best "scoring holes".
Wyndham Clark Top-10 (+200) at FanDuel: 0.75u to win 1.5u
Clark has a hometown advantage as a Denver native. I’m using similar logic at the BMW as last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. Sam Burns made my St. Jude card because of his familiarity with the South. The St. Jude was in Memphis, Tennessee, which had hot, sticky weather last week with temperatures in the upper-90s that felt like mid-100s.
Furthermore, Clark is sixth in driving distance on TOUR this year and 10th in Club Head Speed. Granted, that distance is misleading because the ball travels further in elevation. Yet, having plus-distance at an 8,000-yard course has to be a good thing. He is sixth in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 200+ yards, per Bet The Number.
More importantly, Clark has started to show some form recently. He was T9 at the Travelers Championship, T10 at the Genesis Scottish Open, T14 at the Men’s Olympic Golf Competition, and T7 at the St. Jude.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.