2024 Big Ten Men's College Basketball Tournament Is Purdue's To Lose
On one hand, the 2024 Big Ten Men's College Basketball Tournament tips off Wednesday, March 13th at the Target Center in Minneapolis. On the other, the first round isn't all that important since the bottom four seeds play for the two remaining spots in the second round. The Big Ten tourney kicks into gear after the second round where the top four seeds await in the quarterfinals.
The four teams that earned a double-bye into the quarterfinals. They include the Purdue Boilermakers (1-seed), the Illinois Fighting Illini (2-seed), the Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-seed), and the Northwestern Wildcats (4-seed). Purdue is the 2024 Big Ten regular-season champion and reigning conference-tournament champ.
Purdue is a sizable favorite to win the Big Ten tourney at +100 odds. The Boilermakers have the Big Ten Player of the Year (C Zach Edey), the Sixth Man of the Year (SF Mason Gillis), an All-Big Ten First Team point guard (Braden Smith), and one of the Co-Coaches of the Year (Matt Painter).
Big Ten Tournament 2024 Betting Odds (per VSIN)
- Purdue +100
- Illinois +300
- Nebraska +700
- Michigan State +1000
- Penn State +1500
- Wisconsin +1500
- Northwestern +1600
- Iowa +3500
- Ohio State +3500
- Minnesota +10000
- Indiana +6000
- Maryland +6000
- Rutgers +30000
- Michigan +35000
The Favorite: Purdue (+100)
I looked for ways to bet against Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament and I couldn’t find any. The Boilermakers are 28-3 with all three losses coming on the road in conference games. They are 11-3 in Quad 1 games and no other team in the Big Ten has a winning record in Quad 1 games.
Purdue has non-conference wins over Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama and Arizona. Tennessee could be a 1-seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament and Marquette and Alabama are possibly 2-seeds. I.e. Purdue has run the gauntlet this season.
Wisconsin Badgers forward Tyler Wahl gets trapped on the baseline by Purdue Boilermakers C Zach Edey and forward Trey Kaufman-Renn at Mackey Arena. (Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, the second-best Big Ten team according to the NCAA’s NET rankings is Illinois. Edey is 5-1 in his career vs. the Fighting Illini and 2-0 this season. Edey scored 28 points on 13-of-23 shooting and grabbed eight rebounds in his previous meeting with Illinois.
Finally, the Boilermakers must redeem themselves after losing as a 1-seed to Fairleigh Dickinson in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. Four of Purdue’s starting five played in that game. Per Ken Pom, the Boilermakers are seventh out of 362 D-I schools in minutes’ continuity. This group should be on a warpath this postseason after last year’s embarrassment.
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The Sleeper: Northwestern (+1600)
The Wildcats are one of the three teams that upset the Boilermakers this season. Northwestern beat Purdue 92-88 in overtime at home Dec. 1. Then the Boilermakers got revenge and beat the Wildcats 105-96 at home, also in overtime, Jan. 31.
Northwestern senior PG Boo Buie is on the 2024 All-Big Ten First Team and balled out vs. Purdue earlier this season. Buie scored 31 points and threw nine assists in this first meeting with the Boilermakers. He scored 25 points and dished eight assists in the loss to Purdue.
Northwestern Wildcats PF Luke Hunger celebrates a three against the Purdue Boilermakers with PG Boo Buie at Welsh-Ryan Arena. (David Banks-USA TODAY Sports)
His veteran leadership is why Northwestern is first in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) in Big Ten games, per Ken Pom. The Wildcats also hit 42.4% of their 3s, which leads the conference. They are fifth in the Big Ten in defensive TOV%, so Northwestern should win the "battle of possessions".
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My 2024 Big Ten Tournament Betting Strategy
Illinois could upset Purdue. Fighting Illini SF Terrence Shannon is as good of a scorer as anyone in the conference. Illinois has the second-best net efficiency in the Big Ten, according to Ken Pom. Perhaps I'll hedge and take the points with Illinois if these teams meet in the tourney final.
But, my plan of attack is to bet a full unit (u) on Purdue (+100) to win 1u and a 0.25u on Northwestern (+1600) to win 4u. For example, let's say 1u equals $100. So, the Boilermakers winning the Big Ten tourney brings in a $75 profit minus the Wildcats' wager. A Northwestern win collects $300 after you subtract the $100 loss for Purdue.
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