2024 Big 12 Men's Basketball Tournament Pick: Can Anyone Stop Houston?
Officially, the Big 12 Conference Tournament begins Tuesday, March 12th at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. But, the bottom four teams — Oklahoma State, UCF, West Virginia, and Cincinnati — play in the 1st two days, none of whom are my pick to win the Big 12 tourney. The next six seeds play those 1st-round winners and the top-four teams in the Big 12 have a double bye into the quarterfinals.
The Houston Cougars (+100) are favorites to win the conference tourney in their 1st season in the Big 12. Houston won the regular season conference title by three games and will be a 1-seed in the 2024 NCAA Tournament regardless of how it performs this week. Cougars senior PG Jamal Shead won the Big 12 Player and Defensive Player of the Year awards. Houston coach Kelvin Sampson took home Coach of the Year honors.
Big 12 Tournament 2024 Betting Odds (FanDuel)
- Houston Cougars (+1000)
- Iowa State Cyclones (+430)
- Baylor Bears (+550)
- BYU Cougars (+1100)
- Kansas Jayhawks (+2500)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders (+1500)
- Texas Longhorns (+2000)
- TCU Horned Frogs (+3500)
- Cincinnati Bearcats (+5000)
- Oklahoma Sooners (+4500)
- Kansas State Wildcats (+7500)
- UCF Knights (+13000)
- Oklahoma State Cowboys (+25000)
- West Virginia Mountaineers (+25000)
The Favorite: Houston
As boring as it sounds, the answer to my question in the headline is "Probably not." Frankly, it's Houston's world and the rest of the Big 12 is just living in it. The Cougars lead the country in defensive efficiency, according to Ken Pom. Plus, they dominate the "battle for possessions". Houston is 8th nationally in offensive turnover rate and 2nd defensively.
Baylor Bears SG Jayden Nunn drives to the basket on the Houston Cougars at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion. (Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports)
Guard-play and strong backcourts usually succeed in tournament basketball. Not only do the Cougars have the Big 12 Player of the Year in Shead. But, Houston guard, and Baylor transfer, LJ Cryer leads the conference in Bart Torvik’s PRPG!, which is essentially WAR for college basketball. One of their opponents going nuclear from behind the arc is the only way the Cougars lose the Big 12 tourney.
With that in mind, I'm going to bet on one of the teams discussed below. It's March Madness and I don't want to play an even-money favorite in a conference tournament. More importantly, I have a hunch that Houston's lack of size, poor shooting, and tendency to get into foul trouble will be its undoing in the Big 12 tourney.
The Sleeper: BYU
I'm fascinated by another Big 12 newcomer's stat profile: BYU. The Cougars are 17th in average height, per Ken Pom, but mostly live on the perimeter. More than half of their shots are 3-points and BYU has the 3rd-highest 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) in the country. The Cougars do a tremendous job on the glass, ranking 53rd in offensive rebounding and 19th defensively.
BYU Cougars guard Jaxson Robinson drives the ball on Baylor Bears PG RayJ Dennis at Marriott Center. (Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports)
BYU is deep and leads the conference in "minutes' continuity." Cougars forward Jaxson Robinson is the 2024 Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year and leads the team in scoring at 13.9 points per game. BYU is on Houston's side of the bracket, but, Houston's one defensive blemish is its 304th-ranked 3PAr allowed. BYU could pull off an upset vs. Houston on a hot-shooting night.
My Pick: Baylor (+550)
Despite winning the 2021 national championship and back-to-back regular-season Big 12 titles, Baylor has never won a conference tournament since its inception in 1997. That said, I'm willing to take a shot with the Bears at this price because they have veteran leadership in their backcourt and a proven head coach (Scott Drew).
Baylor has two upperclassmen guards in PG Rayj Dennis and SG Jayden Nunn and the 2024 Big XII Freshman of the Year, SF Ja'Kobe Walter. Furthermore, the Bears are an aggressive team that can shoot the lights out. The Bears rank 4th nationally in 3-point percentage, 16th in FT/FGA rate, and 26th in offensive rebounding rate, per Ken Pom.
Baylor Bears PG RayJ Dennis shoots a three vs. the Oklahoma Sooners at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion. (Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, Baylor is on the opposite side of the bracket from Houston and the same side as the Kansas Jayhawks. This is kind of a "free square" for the Bears since Kansas will be without its two best players for the Big 12 Tournament: C Hunter Dickinson and SF Kevin McCullar. They have been hardened by the 3rd-toughest schedule in the nation.
The Big 12 is the best conference in college basketball and Baylor's non-conference opponents include Auburn, Florida, Michigan State, and Duke. Three of Baylor's nine losses have come in overtime (one against Houston) with 2- and 3-point losses on the road to BYU and Kansas, respectively.
_____________________________
Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.