The AFC East Is The Buffalo Bills' To Lose As Long As Josh Allen Is In His Prime

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With Aaron Rodgers returning, sportsbooks think there will be a three-team race to win the AFC East in 2024. On FanDuel, the New York Jets are the betting favorites (+160) after preseason, followed by the Buffalo Bills (+195) and Miami Dolphins (+210) with the New England Patriots (+2600) bringing up the rear.

New York's season was effectively over once Rodgers tore his Achilles in Bills-Jets on Monday Night Football in Week 1. Impressively, the Jets went 7-10 in 2023 despite former QB Zach Wilson being one of the worst in the NFL. New York is elite-quarterback play away from being a Super Bowl contender. But, does Rodgers have enough left in the tank?

Buffalo was in danger of missing the postseason in 2023 after a 6-6 start. With their backs against the wall and an injury-depleted defense, the Bills won their final five games of the season to sneak into the playoffs. Buffalo's Week 18 win vs. Miami gave the Bills the tiebreaker over the Dolphins with both teams finishing 11-6. 

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen scrambles against the Miami Dolphins in Week 18 of 2024 at Hard Rock Stadium in Florida. (Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports)

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen scrambles against the Miami Dolphins in Week 18 of 2024 at Hard Rock Stadium in Florida. (Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports)

Miami has one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL but hasn't figured out how to beat good teams. The Dolphins are 3-10 vs. teams with a winning record since head coach Mike McDaniel was hired at the beginning of last year. They suffered two epic beatings last year by the Bills (48-20 in Week 4) and Baltimore Ravens (56-19 in Week 17). 

It would take a miracle for New England to win the AFC East this season. The Patriots drafted North Carolina QB Drake Maye with the No. 3 overall pick after going 4-13 in 2024 and hired head coach Jerod Mayo to replace Bill Belichick. While New England is in a rebuilding year, perhaps the Patriots will be this year's Houston Texans. 

AFC East 2024 record predictions 

  • Buffalo Bills 12-5
  • New York Jets 11-6
  • Miami Dolphins 7-10
  • New England Patriots 5-12

New York Jets (+160) 

I’m not investing in the NYJ’s future markets for the most obvious reason. The Jets have a 40-year-old quarterback returning from a season-ending Achilles injury and playing behind an offensive line with three new starters. However, mad year-over-year regression factors are in New York's favor heading into 2024.

For instance, the Jets had a -6 turnover differential last season and were 27th in "Adjusted Games Lost" to injuries in 2024, according to FTN. Turnovers and injuries are random and typically regress year over year. Plus, they have the fourth-easiest schedule this season based on Las Vegas projected win totals, per Warren Sharp. 

Furthermore, It’s impossible to overstate how much of a difference it makes to go from Wilson to Rodgers. According to RBSDM.com, Wilson had the worst expected points added per play plus completion percentage over expectation in 2024. In 11 games last season, Wilson had 8 TDs, 7 INTs, and a 77.2 QB Rating. 

If Rodgers can play at a league-average level, the Jets will be in good shape because they have a championship-caliber defense. New York has the best secondary in the NFL: CBs Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter III. NYJ has a top-five secondary, linebacker group, and defensive line in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF).

‘Lean’ OVER 9.5 wins (-162) 

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Buffalo Bills (+195)

They have a top-five quarterback-coach combo in the league. Bills head coach Sean McDermott is a defensive mastermind. QB Josh Allen is the second-best quarterback in the league, per Mike Sando's "Quarterback Tiers" column at The Athletic, which polls 50 NFL coaches, coordinators, executives, and analysts. 

Allen has to overcome the loss of former WR Stefon Diggs, who the Bills traded to the Houston Texans this offseason. From 2020-23 in Buffalo, Diggs had four 100-catch, 1,000-yard seasons and made four Pro Bowls. Yet, Diggs started to tail off at the end of 2023 and his departure could be "addition by subtraction". 

Diggs was a diva wide receiver, who, like other diva wide receivers, would throw temper tantrums when he wasn’t getting targets. Not having Diggs as a distraction and handing the ball off more to RB James Cook may help Buffalo. Allen is good enough that the Bills should win 10+ games while he is in his prime. 

Meanwhile, over the past four seasons, Buffalo’s defense has ranked second in points allowed (2020), third (2021), second (2022), and sixth (2023). McDermott kept opponents from getting into the end zone even though the Bills were 27th in "Adjusted Games Lost" due to injury on defense last season. 

Despite the loss of a few veterans, the Bills still have Pro Bowl talent on all three levels of their defense. Buffalo’s starting three CBs Christian Benford, Rasual Douglas, and Taron Johnson all graded out eighth, 11th, and 17th among 127 qualified cornerbacks last season, per PFF. 

Lastly, McDermott can scheme up pressure even though the Bills don’t have Pro Bowl pass rushers. When you average blitz rate, sacks, and pressure rate rankings, Buffalo’s defense ranked fourth in the NFL last season. 

Best ‘Value’ Bet: Sean McDermott to win NFL Coach of the Year (+5000)

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Miami Dolphins (+210)

I disagree with the market’s projection of Miami’s defense. When you analyze the spreads and totals for every game this season, the Dolphins are expected to be 16th in points per game (PPG) allowed. In comparison, they were 22nd in PPG allowed last season. Nonetheless, I’m downgrading Miami’s defense year over year. 

Former Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio left the coaching staff, and they might have seven new starters on defense. While I like Miami’s offseason additions, they essentially offset the losses. The Dolphins were third in sacks and defensive pressure rate but were tied for the third-most missed tackles. That tells me the scheme was better than the players last year. 

Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa talks to head coach Mike McDaniel during training camp. (Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports)

Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa talks to head coach Mike McDaniel during training camp. (Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports)

Moreover, Miami faces tougher quarterbacks in 2024 such as Los Angeles Rams QB Matt Stafford, Houston Texas QB C.J. Stroud, San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy, and Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love. The Dolphins didn’t have to play Rodgers in 2023 and should twice this year, barring injury. 

Finally, their brutal schedule from Thanksgiving gives me a bad feeling about the 2024 Dolphins. They are an underdog in seven of their last 10 games. Miami visits the Green Bay Packers Thanksgiving night, plays two games against the Jets, has road games in Houston and at the Browns in cold-a** Cleveland, and hosts the Niners. They have a rest disadvantage in those last three games.

Best Bet: Miami Dolphins UNDER 7.5 alternate wins (+330)

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New England Patriots (+2600) 

For New England to win 6+ games next season, Maye would have to win 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and Mayo would have to be the second coming of Belichick. Maye will be the second-best QB in the 2024 draft class, but he is throwing to a bottom-five WR corp. Patriots WR Demario Douglas led the team with 561 receiving yards last year, and they didn’t sign anyone this offseason. 

Also, Mayo’s coaching is a complete wild card, who has less defensive talent than last year. New England traded Pro Bowl edge rusher Matt Judon to the Atlanta Falcons and standout DT Christian Barmore has been dealing with blood clots this offseason and could miss games in the regular season. 

I correctly predicted the Texans would have a good season in 2023. Ryans hired Bobby Slovik, one of 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offensive assistants, to be the OC. Even though I’m optimistic about Maye’s NFL chances, I liked Stroud more out of college. Yet, Maye must be better than Stroud for the Patriots to have a Texans-like 2024. 

Spoiler Alert: That ain’t happening.

‘Lean' OVER 4.5 wins (-132)

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Actual NFL 2024 Futures in the account 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. 

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Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events. Previously, Clark was a writer/podcaster for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB. Clark graduated from St. John University.