2024 ACC Tournament Best Bets Feature Two Longshots
March Madness is officially here and it tips off, for me at least, Tuesday, March 12th with the Big XII and Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) Tournaments. I say that because I'm only gambling on the major conference tournaments, which include the Power 5 schools and Big East. The Capital One Arena in Washington D.C. hosts the 2024 ACC Tournament with the title game slated for Saturday, March 16th.
Fifteen ACC teams compete in the tournament with the bottom-six playing in the 1st round. Winners of the 2nd round advance to play the top-four seeds of the conference tourney, all clinched double byes into the quarterfinals. The North Carolina Tar Heels are the 1-seed and ACC regular-season champion. UNC is followed by the Duke Blue Devils (2-seed), the Virginia Cavaliers (3-seed), and the Pittsburgh Panthers (4-seed).
ACC Tournament 2024 Betting Odds (FanDuel)
- North Carolina (+180)
- Duke (+180)
- Wake Forest (+750)
- Clemson (+950)
- Pittsburgh (+1500)
- Virginia (+1600)
- Virginia Tech (+3000)
- Syracuse (+5000)
- NC State (+6000)
- Florida State (+7000)
- Miami (+9000)
- Notre Dame (+19000)
- Boston College (+19000)
- Georgia Tech (+25000)
- Louisville (+2500)
The Favorites: North Carolina & Duke
For UNC and Duke, this is the "tournament before the tournament". I'm not predicting the Tar Heels and Blue Devils will mail it in, but their eyes are on the Big Dance. I've considered betting a full unit (u) on North Carolina (+180) because the Tar Heels rolled through the ACC this season. Yet, at +180 odds, pass. The Blue Devils and UNC average more turnovers than takeaways and the "battle for possessions" is the most important thing in tournament basketball.
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Clemson (+950)
Clemson has better odds than Pittsburgh despite having to play an extra game because the Tigers have lost a bunch of coin-flip games. Half of their losses are by 3 or fewer points including a pair of 1-point losses at Duke and vs. Virginia at home. Clemson is on the same side of the ACC Tournament bracket as Duke and Virginia.
Otherwise, the Tigers rank 3rd in the ACC in Ken Pom’s adjusted net efficiency rankings. They are 27th nationally in DI experience and 21st in average height, per Ken Pom. Tigers SG Joseph Girard, C P.J. Hall, and PF Ian Schieffelin are in the top 15 of the ACC in Bart Torvik’s PRPG!, which is essentially WAR for college basketball. Hall is on the All-KenPom.com team for the ACC and 2nd in PER.
Clemson PF P.J. Hall (24), left, SG Dillon Hunter, and SF Chauncey Wiggins celebrate after Clemson senior 3-pointer against the Miami Hurricanes at Littlejohn Coliseum. (Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports)
Clemson has six wins against teams in the top 50 of Ken Pom’s net efficiency. The Tigers beat Alabama, TCU, and North Carolina at the Dean E. Smith Center. They have the 2nd-best offensive efficiency in ACC games and the best free-throw shooting percentage. I want to back teams that can hit their free throws in tournament games because there’s nothing worse than seeing a college basketball team you bet miss free throws.
Bet 0.5u on the Clemson Tigers (+950) to win the 2024 ACC Tournament at FanDuel
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Pittsburgh (+1500)
The Panthers are my favorite bet here when you factor in their odds. I'm nervous about their chances against Wake Forest if the Demon Deacons beat their 2nd-round foe. Then against UNC in the ACC tournament semifinals. Pitt split the season series with Wake Forest. The unlikelihood of the Panthers upsetting the Tar Heels in the ACC semifinals is evident by the +1500 price tag.
That said, I love Pittsburgh's team profile. The Panthers are 2nd in the ACC in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and 6th defensively. They average 4.1 more rebounds per game than their opponents and are the 2nd-tallest team in the conference. According to Bart Torvik, Pitt attempts the 2nd-highest share of dunks per 2-point attempts in the ACC and ranks 3rd defensively.
Furthermore, the Panthers force teams into more long, inefficient 2-point shot field goals than they attempt. They have the highest 3-point attempt rate in the conference and the 3-pointer is the great equalizer in basketball nowadays. Plus, Pitt has one of the best wings in the ACC, SF Blake Hinson, who led the conference in threes this season.
Lastly, Pittsburgh had an ACC-best 20-11 against the spread (ATS) record during the regular season and a 12-6-2 ATS record in conference games. Again, will Pitt win the 2024 ACC Tournament? It's unlikely. But, at 15-to-1, the Panthers are worth taking a flyer on.
Bet 0.5u on the Pittsburgh Panthers (+1500) to win the 2024 ACC Tournament at FanDuel
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