2023 Tea And Crumpets Game: London Jaguars Will Beat Atlanta Falcons In NFL Week 4
The NFL International Series kicks off Sunday in NFL Week 4 when the Atlanta Falcons (1-2) face the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) at Wembley Stadium in London. It's the 1st of back-to-back London games for the Jaguars. They meet the Buffalo Bills at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London in Week 5 for another 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff.
Aside from the 2020 COVID year, this is the 10th straight season the Jaguars are playing a London game. Jacksonville is 4-5 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in those games. The Jaguars have lost two straight games in London to the Denver Broncos last year and Miami Dolphins in 2021.
Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence throws a pass over the middle vs. the Broncos at Wembley Stadium in London. (Aaron Ontiveroz/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)
Both Atlanta and Jacksonville are coming off double-digit Week 3 losses. In the upset of the week, the Jaguars got drop-kicked by the Houston Texans at home 37-17. While the Falcons no-showed in a 20-6 loss at the Detroit Lions in last week.
However, the difference is Jacksonville's Week 3 loss was more flukey whereas Atlanta got dominated. The Jaguars had seven more 1st downs than the Texans and gave up a weird kick return TD to Houston FULLBACK Andrew Beck. The Falcons were doubled-up in yards per play by the Lions, 5.6-2.8.
Falcons vs. Jaguars NFL Week 4 odds (PointsBet)
Odds for the Falcons vs. Jaguars NFL Week 4 game in London courtesy of PointsBet as of Thursday, Sept. 28th at 11:30 a.m. ET.
I'm buying low on the Jaguars in this spot because their defense is nasty vs. the run and Trevor Lawrence is playing well but just needs his teammates to step up. Lawrence has the 2nd-best pass grade in the NFL behind Tua Tagovailoa.
Plus, I'm not overreacting to Jacksonville's losses to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2 and Houston last week. The Chiefs are the reigning Super Bowl champion and I am higher than the market on the Texans.
Jacksonville's defense allows the 6th-fewest yards per rush. If you take away Atlanta's ground game, Falcons QB Desmond Ridder will crumble. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Ridder has been the worst QB in the league through Week 3.
The Jaguars match up well with the Falcons. Jacksonville LB Foyesade Oluokun is one of the best pass-coverage linebackers in the NFL. Oluokun is better at his position than Atlanta TE Kyle Pitts. The Falcons have a below-average WR corp and the Jaguars three well-graded cornerbacks.
Despite having an elite running back (Bijan Robinson), Atlanta is 27th in 3rd-down conversion rate. Ridder ate seven sacks last week vs. a Lions defense without a particularly strong pass rush. Per PFF, he has the highest rate of turnover-worthy plays.
Lions pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson sacks Falcons QB Desmond Ridder at Ford Field in Detroit. (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the Falcons are still dining on their 6-0 ATS start to 2022. The market considers Atlanta a "feisty underdog". But, the Falcons seven consecutive games as underdogs since Week 7 last year (1-6 ATS in those outings).
Also, if the Jaguars fall behind early, I'm confident Lawrence can throw Jacksonville back into the game. The opposite is true of Atlanta and Ridder. The Falcons gained just 221 total yards in their Week 1 win over the Carolina Panthers and 183 total yards last week vs. the Lions.