2023 NFL Draft: Bet Bengals To Draft Tight End And More Can't-Miss Wagers Based On Team Needs
It's been impossible to handicap the NFL Draft 2023. Hours, if not days, of research is needed to successfully bet the draft. There have been so many swings in betting odds for the No. 1 overall pick.
"Tanking for Alabama QB Bryce Young and Ohio State C.J. Stroud" was a thing entering the 2022 NFL regular season. Stroud was the favorite to go first after Young's physical measurements from NFL Scouting Combine.
As of Tuesday (two days before the 2023 NFL Draft), Young is the clear favorite for 1st pick (-1600) at DraftKings Sportsbook. But, even that is murky. Kentucky QB Will Levis's odds to be the 1st pick suspiciously climbed to +500 Tuesday morning.
That said, we're going to circumvent the QB confusion and focus on team needs. Keep in mind, these are only pizza bets to add some gambling action to our draft night. My bankroll for these markets is $100 spread across five bets.
2023 NFL Draft Team Specials
Cincinnati Bengals
Betting odds for the Cincinnati Bengals' first player taken at the 2023 NFL Draft from DraftKings as of Tuesday, April 25th.
Outside of Bryce Young at #1, the Bengals taking a tight end makes the most sense in the 2023 NFL Draft. Cincy has the 28th overall pick and tight end is a position of need for the Bengals.
They haven't selected a tight end since Drew Sample in the second round of the 2019 draft. Sample has just 58 catches in 44 games over his four seasons in the NFL.
There are perhaps three 1st-round quality tight ends in this draft including Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer, Utah TE Dalton Kincaid and Georgia TE Darnell Washington.
Georgia TE Darnell Washington runs with the ball as during a game at the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville. (Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
NFLMockDraftDatabase.com, which aggregates thousands of mock drafts, predicts Cincinnati will select Kincaid. The editorial team for Pro Football Focus (PFF) and NFL.com has Cincy drafting Mayer.
Personally, I'd take Washington if I were the Bengals. Washington is the best run-blocking tight end of the group and Cincy's offensive line is the weakest part of the team.
I.e. Washington checks two boxes for the Bengals: 1) A pass-catching threat for QB Joe Burrow and 2) A run-blocker who can help set the edge.
BET: Bengals to draft a tight end with their 1st pick (+150) at DraftKings
Detroit Lions
Betting odds for the Detroit Lions' first player taken at the 2023 NFL Draft from DraftKings as of Tuesday, April 25th.
Four defensive backs left Detroit in free agency and three cornerbacks including No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Jeff Okudah. The Lions won't miss any of these guys considering of how bad they were defending the pass in 2022.
However, upgrades are needed in Detroit's secondary. The Lions were 25th in opposing QB Rating, 30th in passing yards allowed per game and dead-last for adjusted yards per pass attempt last season.
Illinois Fighting Illini CB Devon Witherspoon lines up for a play vs. the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois. (Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
NFLMockDraftDatabase.com and NFL.com agree that Detroit will select Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon with the 6th overall pick. PFF has the Lions trading back in the 1st round and picking Penn State CB Joey Porter Jr.
More importantly, the betting market forces us to pay a tax for the Lions to select a CB with their 1st pick. It sucks laying money in an NFL draft bet but this feels like a lock.
BET: Lions to draft a cornerback with their 1st pick (-130) at DraftKings
Green Bay Packers
Betting odds for the Green Bay Packers' first player taken at the 2023 NFL Draft from DraftKings as of Tuesday, April 25th.
I got to be honest: This bet is being made mostly for comedic purposes. How funny would it be if the Packers drafted a WR the same week they traded Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets? That kind of pettiness would win draft night for me.
NFL talking heads have been complaining for years about Green Bay not drafting WRs for Rodgers. It always made sense why the Packers didn't draft a WR. They had Aaron Rodgers, one of the highest paid players in the NFL.
Aaron Rodgers looks on against the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
It was Rodgers' job to help develop a wide-out. All QBs need to find a groove and gain comfort with their pass catchers. Former Pro Bowl Packers WRs Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings were all 2nd-round picks.
Now that Green Bay is turning to QB Jordan Love, I could see the Packers trying to get him some help. They have a top-tier offensive line, an elite backfield and have drafted a ton of defensive players recently.
BET: Packers to draft a wide receiver with their 1st pick (+250) at DraftKings
New York Giants
Betting odds for the New York Giants' first player taken at the 2023 NFL Draft from DraftKings as of Tuesday, April 25th.
As a Giants fan, I can say with absolute certainty that NYG's offensive line was the weakest part of their team in 2022. It got worse this offseason when two starters (G Jon Feliciano and C Nick Gates) left in free agency.
Giants QB Daniel Jones was pressured on 29.4% of his dropbacks in their 38-7 loss in the 2023 NFC Divisional Round to the Eagles. To put that into context, the Titans' had the worst pressure rate allowed last season at 27.5%.
NYG have one of the best tackles in the biz — LT Andrew Thomas — and used the 7th overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft on RT Evan Neal. New York's interior linemen situation is scary though and the Giants need to draft one.
Giants LT Andrew Thomas gets set against the Dallas Cowboys at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
They already added TE Darren Waller and slot WR Parris Campbell this offseason. Giants WRs Sterling Shepard and Wan'Dale Robinson will return after suffering season-ending injuries in 2022.
My hunch is the Giants workout a deal with Pro Bowl RB Saquon Barkley who is a dual-threat out of the backfield. Also, NYG coach Brian Daboll is an offensive mastermind but it's hard to scheme up a crappy offensive line.
BET: Giants to draft a offensive linemen with their 1st pick (+380) at DraftKings
Kansas City Chiefs
Betting odds for the Kansas City Chiefs' first player taken at the 2023 NFL Draft from DraftKings as of Tuesday, April 25th.
Kansas City drafting an outside tackle with the final pick of the 1st round is a good look. Tackle is a premium position in the NFL and the Chiefs just let LT Orlando Brown walk in free agency.
Say the Chiefs select an OT in the 1st round. They can then exercise a fifth-year option if that offensive lineman is a reliable starting NFL tackle. NFLMockDraftDatabase.com predicts KC will draft Oklahoma OT Anton Harrison with its 1st pick.
Oklahoma Sooners LT Anton Harrison runs onto the field for a game vs. the Kansas State Wildcats at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman. (Brian Bahr/Getty Images)
Per PFF, Chiefs LT Jawaan Taylor whom they signed to replace Brown was the 65th graded player in the NFL out of 81 tackles. KC RT Lucas Niang was terrible in 2021 and played just 10 offensive snaps in 2022.
Also, I'm a believer that WR is the most overrated position in the NFL, especially if you have a franchise QB. The New England Patriots won several Super Bowls without having an All-Pro receiver.