2023 NFC South Division Preview: Atlanta Falcons Due For Major Regression This Season
The 2023-24 NFL season kick-off is almost here! OutKick is unveiling its team-by-team preview series. Over the past two weeks, we covered the AFC West and NFC West and the AFC North and NFC North. This week, we're tackling the two South divisions, starting with last year's last-place finisher in the NFC South, the Atlanta Falcons.
Atlanta Falcons 2022-23 Record: 7-10
Atlanta Falcons 2023-24 Win Total Over/Under: 8.5
Offseason Moves
The Atlanta Falcons had a lot of salary cap space heading into the offseason and they put it to use, particularly on defense. They had a bottom-five defensive unit last season and were determined to improve. The biggest signing came in the former of former Bengals safety Jessie Bates. Bates can immediately enter and quarterback the new-look Falcons defense.
They also added three interior defensive linemen -- Calais Campbell, David Onyemata and Eddie Goldman -- plus edge rusher Bud Dupree, cornerback Mike Hughes and linebacker Kaden Elliss.
After spending big on defense in free agency, Atlanta turned to offense in the early part of the NFL Draft. They used the #8 overall pick on Texas running back Bijan Robinson -- an excellent player but questionable pick -- and their second round pick on offensive tackle Matthew Bergeron from Syracuse.
The Falcons turned back to defense in the third and fourth rounds, grabbing Ohio State edge rusher Zach Harrison in round three and Utah corner Clark Phillips III in round four. The team did not have another pick until the seventh round.
Season Outlook
The Atlanta Falcons are trying to turn around a terrible defensive unit with a free agency blitz while simultaneously handing the reins of the team over to second-year quarterback and 2022 third-round pick Desmond Ridder. The free agency moves to shore up the defense are nice, but nothing matters more to this team's success than Ridder's progression as a passer.
Ridder had his moments last season, but he still appears very raw as a passer. He threw two touchdowns and no interceptions in four starts. but he also passed for just over 700 yards in those games -- less than 200 yards per contest. That's not going to get it done in today's NFL.
Plus, there's no guarantee that the free agency spending spree is going to pay off. There are plenty of examples throughout sports and NFL history where teams that "win" free agency don't go on to do anything during the season.
The Atlanta Falcons are counting on quarterback Desmond Ridder to take a huge step forward in order to challenge for the NFC South crown this upcoming NFL season. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
That's where I land on the 2023-24 Atlanta Falcons. I love the Jessie Bates signing, but none of the other additions are exciting. Calais Campbell is a good get, but he's 37-years-old. Onyemata had his worst season in 2022. Bud Dupree's play has only recorded seven sacks combined over the past two seasons after a breakout 11.5-sack campaign for the Steelers in 2019.
The defense is going to need time to gel with all the new faces, plus the offense is in the very questionable hands of Desmond Ridder. He has wide receiver Drake London to throw to and tight end Kyle Pitts and ... that's about it. Their next best receiver is Mack Hollins.
I don't understand the win total at 8.5 and they should easily go under that number. The Falcons, to me, are a seven-win team AT BEST, and more likely for 6-11.