2023 NFC East Division Preview: Dallas Cowboys Are Major Negative Regression Candidate
The 2023-24 NFL season kick-off is almost here! OutKick is unveiling its team-by-team preview series. Over the past three weeks, we covered the AFC West and NFC West, the AFC North and NFC North and the AFC South and the NFC South. This week, we've turned our attention to the final two divisions. And that continues with last year's runner-up in the NFC East, the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas Cowboys 2022-23 Record: 12-5
Dallas Cowboys 2023-24 Win Total Over/Under: 10.5
Offseason Moves
Dallas moved on from several staples on their offense this offseason. The Cowboys cut ties with running back Ezekiel Elliott, tight end Dalton Schultz and guard Connor McGovern. Each player started at least 14 games for the team in each of the past three seasons. In Zeke's case, obviously longer.
Part of the reason is that they gave quarterback Dak Prescott a four-year, $160 million contract in March that carries a nearly $60 million cap hit next season. So, the team couldn't be overly aggressive in free agency. Instead, they traded for cornerback Stephon Gilmore and wide receiver Brandin Cooks. And they prioritized keeping their defensive core mostly in tact.
That makes perfect sense for a team that won 12 games last season -- and the year prior. Unfortunately, 24 regular season wins resulted in just one playoff victory. But there are still major questions about this offense. Brandon Cooks has six 1,000+ yard receiving seasons under his belt, but he's about to turn 30.
Tony Pollard ran extremely well last season, but he's never had to be a workhorse running back before. Pollard eclipsed 200 touches for the first time in his career last season. Zeke Elliott averaged over 300 touches in his seven years as the Cowboys lead back.
The Dallas Cowboys are counting on running back Tony Pollard to carry the load for the first time in his NFL career. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
But in the NFL Draft, they continued to prioritize defense. They selected Michigan defensive tackle Mazi Smith -- a player I raved about prior to the draft -- in the first round. The Cowboys selected another Michigan player, tight Luke Schoonmaker, in round two to help replace Schultz. Then, they went back to defense in rounds three and four taking Texas linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and San Jose State defensive lineman Viliami Fehoko Jr.
Though I love Smith, the Cowboys opted for non-premium position players in each of the first four rounds. That's a curious NFL Draft strategy. Especially since the Cowboys had needs at offensive line and for offensive playmakers.
Season Outlook
There was an old adage in NFL gambling: bet against the Dallas Cowboys. The theory was simple: the public loves to bet on the Cowboys, so their spreads are always inflated. Thus, betting against them created value. However, the Cowboys have dominated against-the-spread over the past two seasons. In fact, they are a ridiculous 23-11 (68%) vs. the number in that span.
But this is the year for the trend to reverse. Many people look at this 12-win Dallas team and think there's no reason they can't be better this year. Several publications ranked their offseason as one of the best in the league. There's no question the Dallas defense is great. But the offense has a lot of questions for a team that needs to win 11 games to beat its season win total.
This is a massive season for quarterback Dak Prescott and his future with the Dallas Cowboys, as he needs the team to compete for the NFC East crown against the reigning NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
Outside of guard Zack Wilson, none of the Cowboys offensive linemen ranked in the Top 20 at his position according to Pro Football Focus. The line struggles contributed to Dak Prescott throwing a league-high 15 interceptions. Now, they expect Tony Pollard to carry the load behind that same line. CeeDee Lamb is an elite wideout. But is there another player on the Cowboys offense that worries defensive coordinators? I don't think so.
Plus, although they play in the much weaker NFC, the Cowboys play in the conference's toughest division. The Eagles are the reigning conference champions, the Giants were a playoff team that improved this offseason and even the Commander figure to be better. And they have to play the AFC East in inter-conference play. Dallas plays a rather tough schedule and it's hard to see 11 wins. In fact, I think the Cowboys might miss the playoffs entirely, sending the franchise into panic mode next offseason.