2023 NBA Playoffs: A Gambler's Guide To The First Round And Why You Should Mostly Avoid Series Bets
After a heinous regular season from a betting perspective, I'm excited to recoup lost units in the NBA Playoffs 2023. Four 1st-round series start Saturday. The other four begin Sunday and the 8-seeds for each conference still need to be decided.
Apologies if you've heard me say this on a podcast or read this from one of my posts but I'm mostly avoiding series bets. Last season, I was 31 games above-.500 entering the postseason and went heavy on 1st-round series with little success.
NBA Playoffs 2023 bracket courtesy of NBA.com.
Instead, I'm going to be more fluid in these playoffs and use most of my bankroll on single games. I got stuck in my ways and left money on the table due to not adjusting from my pre-series analysis.
Below, I'll cruise through the known NBA 2023 playoff series by giving a brief overview of the matchups and a prediction for who advances.
Eastern Conference
6-seed Brooklyn Nets (45-37) at 3-seed Philadelphia 76ers (51-31)
Series
Series Spread
Prediction: 76ers in 5
7-seed Atlanta Hawks (45-37) at 2-seed Boston Celtics (57-25)
Series
Series Spread
Prediction: Celtics in 6
5-seed New York Knicks (47-35) at 4-seed Cleveland Cavaliers (51-31)
Series
Series Spread
Knicks All-Star Julius Randle is still sidelined with an ankle injury and NYK hopes to have him back when the series goes to the Garden. Either way, the Knicks still have a chance to advance.
One of their victories over the Cavs was without Randle, another was without star PG Jalen Brunson and NYK had a rest disadvantage in all three wins vs. Cleveland this season.
Gimme Brunson, probable NBA Sixth Man of the Year Immanuel Quickley and 3-and-D guards Josh Hart and Quentin Grimes over Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell.
Knicks PG Jalen Brunson drives past Cavs SG Donovan Mitchell at Madison Square Garden. (Elsa/Getty Images)
Brunson destroyed Mitchell in last postseason's Mavericks-Jazz series. Brunson out-scored Mitchell 27.8-25.5 PPG and out-shot him from the field and behind the arc. Luka Doncic missed the 1st two games of that series as well.
On paper, Cleveland's frontcourt has a massive edge over New York's sans Randle. But, in reality, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen aren't reliable offensively.
BET: Knicks (+185) in 7
The New York Knicks' 1st-round NBA Eastern Conference playoff odds vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Western Conference
6-seed Golden State Warriors (44-38) at 3-seed Sacramento Kings (48-34)
Series
Series Spread
This has to be one of the most disrespectful series prices I've ever seen. I don't recall a 6-seed being more than a 2-to-1 favorite in the 1st-round and I've been watching the NBA my whole life.
I've made a bunch of money back the Warriors since they started winning NBA titles. They are the defending champions and I power-rank Golden State (at full strength) 2nd behind the LA Clippers in the West.
Warriors' Stephen Curry is defended by Kings big Chimezie Metu and PG De'Aaron Fox at Chase Center in San Francisco. (Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
That said, the Kings are going to give the Warriors hell in this series. Or at least I'm betting they will. Golden State has been awful on the road all season and the excuses just don't hold up anymore. A 41-game sample size is enough.
Sactown covered all three meetings vs. a healthy Golden State (with Andrew Wiggins in the lineup) earlier this season. The Kings have two strength-on-weakness edges in ball security and free-throw-attempt margin.
BET: Kings +1.5 (+125) series spread
The Sacramento Kings' 1st-round NBA Western Conference series spread vs. the Golden State Warriors from DraftKings.
7-seed Los Angeles Lakers (43-39) at 2-seed Memphis Grizzlies (51-31)
Series
Series Spread
Prediction: Grizzlies in 6
5-seed Los Angeles Clippers (44-38) at 4-seed Phoenix Suns (45-37)
Series
Series Spread
Speaking of "disrespectful odds," I completely disagree with Phoenix's NBA playoff pricing. Of all the storylines entering the NBA playoffs, the Suns being favorites to win the West is the most interesting.
However I'm fairly pot-committed to the Clippers going all the way. I've made several bets at many prices for the Clippers to win both the West and NBA Finals. Do I feel good about them if Paul George doesn't return? No.
Clippers' Kawhi Leonard dribbles past Suns' Devin Booker at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
That said, I firmly believe that the Clippers have the best roster in the Western Conference at full strength. Even without PG, there is no way LAC should have worse odds to win the title than the Lakers or Grizzlies.
Kawhi Leonard is the best wing in the West, with all due respect to Kevin Durant and LeBron James. Actually, that's a lie. LeBron and KD can't play defense like Kawhi can.
My prediction is that the Clippers win this series in 6 but their +1.5 series price feels like a lock.
BET: LA Clippers +1.5 (+125) series spread
The LA Clippers' 1st-round NBA Western Conference series spread vs. the Phoenix Suns from DraftKings.