2023 Fortinet Championship 'Locks' Include Justin Thomas
It's only been a couple of weeks since the 2023 TOUR Championship but the PGA Tour resumes Thursday with its FedExCup Fall schedule. The 1st of the seven fall events tees off at the Silverado Resort & Spa's North Course in Napa, California with the 2023 Fortinet Championship.
Instead of waisting words explaining this FedExCup Fall series, I'll direct you to the PGA Tour's lengthy breakdown. Essentially, most of golf's biggest names won't be in a PGA Tour field until The Sentry in Jan. 2024.
Only four players in the top-50 of the Official World Golf Rankings are teeing it up this week at Silverado. The highest-ranked golfer in the field is reigning back-to-back Fortinet champion, Max Homa.
Max Homa celebrates with the trophy after winning the Fortinet Championship at Silverado Resort and Spa North course in Napa, California. (Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)
The other big name in the Fortinet field is Homa's Ryder Cup teammate, Justin Thomas. JT is making his 1st Fortinet start since 2019 after missing out on the FedExCup Playoffs last season. Thomas needs to earn points to enter the PGA Tour's "Signature Events".
Thanks to Viktor Hovland, who's not in the Fortinet field, I hit back-to-back winners to end the 2022-23 PGA Tour season. Hovland won both the 2023 BMW and TOUR Championships. Despite those wins, I finished the -17.43 units (u) last season.
But, I left some meat on the bone last season by not betting more on my early-season outright winners. With that in mind, I'm betting to WIN 20u for any outright and ensuring those with placement bets. Make your placement wagers at BetMGM because that sportsbook doesn't apply "Dead Heat" rules.
2023 Fortinet Championship 'Horses for the Course'
Justin Thomas
Honestly, I'm nervous about JT's Ryder Cup schedule. Thomas just traveled to Rome with Team USA to see the Ryder Cup's host course. Plus, the Ryder Cup tees off in two weeks. However, the Fortinet is a perfect slump-buster for JT.
In his past three Fortinet starts, Thomas finished T4 in 2019, T8 in 2016, and T3 in 2015. This is JT's 1st appearance at Silverado in four seasons because the Fortinet was beneath him. But, now Thomas needs all the FedExCup points he can get.
Justin Thomas off-the-tee at the 9th hole during the first round of the 2019 Fortinet, then called the "Safeway Open", at Silverado Resort. (Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)
A big reason JT struggled on Tour last season was due to his awful putting. He's picked up strokes on the greens at Silverado in four of his five career Fortinet starts. More importantly, Thomas's game fits this course.
Silverado has runoffs around-the-green (ARG) and JT's ARG-play is some of the best on Tour. Over the last 50 rounds, Thomas leads this field in scoring chances. Since Poa is JT's best putting surface, I think he cashes in this week on those opportunities.
1st horse for Silverado: Justin Thomas
Andrew Putnam
Over the last 50 rounds, Putnam ranks 3rd in this field for Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP). He’s also 4th in Par 5 scoring and Good Drives Gained and 8th in Par 4 Efficiency (EFF): 400-450 yards during that stretch.
Approach play is the most important stat in golf handicapping. Good Drives Gained is a blend of distance and accuracy off-the-tee. Also, the North Course at Silverado has six Par 4s within 400-450 yards.
Andrew Putnam chips on the 17th green during the final round of the 2023 Sony Open at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Putnam is one of the best putters on Tour. In fact, last season, Putnam was 6th in total SG: Putting. He’s picked up an average of +3.0 SG: Putting per event in his last five starts.
Finally, Putnam had a strong finish to last season. Putnam made nine straight cuts from the Charles Schwab in May to the 2nd-round of the FedExCup playoffs, the BMW Championship, in August. He placed T10 at the BMW and T5 at the Memorial Tournament, which is a "Signature Event" on Tour.
2nd horse for Silverado: Andrew Putnam
Akshay Bhatia
Bhatia is an elite ball striker but the captain of “Team No-Putt”. Take it from me, someone who has bet Bhatia often. Over the last 50 rounds, he is 7th in this field for SG: Ball striking (BS) and 9th in SG: APP.
That said, Bhatia is -2.8 SG: Putting per event over the last five starts and -2.0 SG: Putting in the past 10. Despite his putting woes, Bhatia is still 6th in this field for birdie average over the last 50 rounds.
Furthermore, Bhatia ranks in the top 20 among these golfers in Par 4 EFF: 400-450 yards, Par 5 scoring, and Opportunities Gained during that span.
Akshay Bhatia lines up his putt during the 2nd round of the Safeway Open at Silverado Country Club. (Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Silverado doesn’t play a lot of defense and Bhatia putts well here. Bhatia missed the cut in his 1st Fortinet start in 2019. He rallied back to finish 9th the year after. But, he was +2.0 SG: Putting two years ago and +3.0 SG: Putting in 2020.
Bhatia won the 2023 Barracuda Championship. The Barracuda is an alternate event on the PGA Tour and it plays the same week as The Open Championship.
Lastly, Bhatia has SG: Newly Engaged vibes. He got engaged in Napa Valley (home of Silverado) earlier this month.
3rd horse for Silverado: Akshay Bhatia
Doug Ghim
This is mostly a "gut-play". Ghim is 1st in my stat-based model over the last 36 rounds and 2nd in the last 50. Moreover, Ghim ranks top-30 across all my key stats over the last 50 rounds highlighted by a 2nd in Good Drives Gained and 9th in SG: BS.
Doug Ghim plays his tee shot from on Hole No. 4 during the 2nd round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club in Michigan. (Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)
Since Silverado doesn't play a lot of defense, golfers will have a bunch of birdie looks. Ghim ranks 39th in this field for SG: Putting on Poa grass greens over the last 24 rounds. He finished in the top-20 four times last season including a stretch of three straight from May to June.