2023 Circa Million V NFL Week 9 Selections Include Seahawks-Ravens, Bills-Bengals

Aside from the New York Giants puking all over themselves and losing to the New York Jets 13-10 in overtime, last week was a step in the right direction in the Circa Million V NFL contest. Technically, it was a tie because I had the Giants +3 over the Jets. But, it felt like a loss.

Week 8 Recap: (3-1-1)

Two of my wins were clearly the right side with the other being a lucky win. However, that lucky win was offset by a brutal beat with the Cleveland Browns +3 at the Seattle Seahawks. Regardless, I’m back above .500 and my Circa Million V record is 20-19-1 entering Week 9. 

Circa Million V NFL Week 9 Picks

Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.

Circa Million Pick #1: Miami Dolphins +1.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs in Frankfurt, Germany

This is my favorite pick of the Week 9 slate and I’ve already broken this game down in detail. Feel free to read the analysis by clicking the link below. Or even better, check out the OutKick Bets Podcast. 

(LISTEN to Dolphins-Chiefs analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Pick #2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans -2.5

There’s a reason I’m fading my favorite pick from NFL Week 8. It’s the Bucs had no business covering last week vs. the Bills. The Buccaneers had a 10-min, 17-play, 92-yard luck-box TD-drive to sneak in the backdoor in a 24-18 loss. Tampa was a beneficiary of two drive-extending defensive penalties on 4th downs.

Furthermore, we are buying low on the Texans whose 15-13 loss to the Panthers last week was Carolina’s 1st win of the season. I’m throwing that loss out of the window. Maybe Houston was smelling its own farts during the Week 7 bye.

Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans celebrates with QB C.J. Stroud after a TD vs. the New Orleans Saints at NRG Stadium. (Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports)

Also, the Texans have the better quarterback and head coach combination. Houston QB C.J. Stroud is the favorite to win 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Texans are 4-3 against the spread (ATS) thus far under rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans.

Finally, my numbers say the Texans should be at least -3.5 home favorites. Houston has a higher net expected points added (EPA) per play, net early-down success rate with turnovers removed, and net yards per play (YPP).

(LISTEN to Buccaneers-Texans analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Pick #3: Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers +2.5

I'm going to fade Indy as favorites for as long as they have QB Gardner Minshew as their starter. According to Pro Football Focus, Minshew has the 2nd-worst passing grade in the NFL. Since Week 4, Panthers rookie QB Bryce Young has a better EPA/play than Minshew.

Last week, the then 3-4 Saints boat-raced the Colts 38-27 as road favorites. This leads me to my favorite NFL handicapping angle: Betting against a road favorite the week after they were home underdogs.

Indianapolis Colts QB Gardner Minshew II gets rid of the ball under pressure by the New Orleans Saints at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indiana. (Jenna Watson/IndyStar/USA TODAY NETWORK)

The logic is simple: If a team is a home underdog (especially against a sub-.500 opponent) then they probably shouldn't be road favorites. Since 2022, teams in these spots are 6-10-1 ATS.

Another angle I love in sports betting is the revenge game. Well, Colts-Panthers is a revenge game for Carolina 1st-year head coach Frank Reich who was fired by Indianapolis this offseason. Reich played in the NFL and he will get his guys up for this game.

(LISTEN to Colts-Panthers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Pick #4: Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens +6

This just reeks of the Lions-Ravens matchup from Week 7 when Baltimore blasted Detroit 38-6. First of all, Lamar Jackson is 17-1 straight up (SU) in his career vs. NFC teams. That's such a big sample size it cannot be ignored.

More importantly, the Ravens have the better quarterback-coach combination and the better defense. Baltimore's defense leads the NFL in points per game (PPG) and YPP allowed.

With that in mind, Seattle's offense has been underwhelming recently. Over their last four games, the Seahawks rank 21st in offensive EPA/play and averaging just 20.3 PPG. Seattle QB Geno Smith has committed seven turnovers (five interceptions and two fumbles).

Seahawks QB Geno Smith passes the ball vs. the Arizona Cardinals during the game at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington. (Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports)

Lastly, the Ravens are much better in high-leverage situations. Seattle is 19th or worse in 3rd-down conversion and red zone TD rates on both sides of the ball. While Baltimore's offense and defense ranks 10th or better in 3rd-down and red zone TD rates.

(LISTEN to Seahawks-Ravens analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Pick #5: Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals -1.5

I've already laid out a case for the Bengals -1.5 in my Weekend Betting Guide below. The TLDR-version is Joe Burrow is back to being an elite quarterback. And Cincinnati is 13-4 SU and ATS after Week 8 since 2021.

(LISTEN to Bills-Bengals analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).