2023 Circa Million V NFL Week 8 Picks: Battle Of NY And Fading Bad QBs
Last week, my top-three picks in the Circa Million V NFL handicapping contest all won but the last two teams to make my card lost. Hey, a winning week is a winning week. Two of my covers were nail-biters and the two losses were bad reads.
Week 7 Recap (3-2):
Thanks to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers covering as +9.5 underdogs on Thursday Night Football at the Buffalo Bills, I'm off to a 1-0 start in Week 8. Entering the weekend, my Circa Million V record sits at 18-18 with four games left.
Circa Million V NFL Week 8 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
Circa Million Pick #1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.5) at Buffalo Bills
This is only the 2nd Thursday Night Football game I've entered into my Circa Million V contest. Since you have to submit all your picks at once, if you pick the TNF game, you're forgoing Friday practice intel. I.e. your TNF selection better be a lock.
Honestly, this wasn't a lock. In fact, Tampa Bay wasn't even close to being a "lock". The Bucs trailed by double digits for most of the 2nd half and their offense looked like a corpse.
But, they rose from the ashes. Tampa QB Baker Mayfield led his team to a 17-play, 92-yard TD-scoring drive with 2:44 remaining to pull of a miraculous backdoor cover for your boy.
(LISTEN to Buccaneers-Bills analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #2: Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans (+3)
I've already broken this game down so feel free to click the link below. Essentially, I'm fading Falcons QB Desmond Ridder as a road favorite backing the Titans after their bye week.
Atlanta is scoring just 13.2 points per game over the last five games and have turned the ball over 12 times. Since 2019, Tennessee is 4-0 overall and vs. the spread with a +19.3 scoring margin after a bye.
(LISTEN to Falcons-Titans analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #3: New York Jets at New York Giants (+3)
This is the definition of a sell-high spot. The Jets upset the reigning NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles as +7 home underdogs two weeks ago and are coming off their bye.
Their head coach Robert Saleh is talking trash about how well his defense has done vs. elite QBs. And Giants backup QB Tyrod Taylor will start Sunday with Daniel Jones still on the mend.
Also, I cannot pass up the opportunity to bet against Jets QB Zach Wilson as a favorite. This is the 1st time the Jets have been a favorite this season. Also, Wilson is generally awful but the G-Men's defense is a bad matchup for him.
Giants defensive linemen Dexter Lawrence II and Kayvon Thibodeaux sack Washington Commanders QB Sam Howell at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)
The Giants have the 2nd-highest blitz rate in the NFL and play mostly man coverage. Wilson has a 47% completion rate vs. man coverage, according to PlayerProfiler.com.
Furthermore, the Jets have the worst pressure rate allowed on offense. Ultimately, I don't trust Wilson to process where the blitz is coming from while making an accurate throw vs. man coverage.
Lastly, the Jets haven't won a game this year because of their offense. It's always their opponent beating themselves. Well, Taylor has the 2nd-best turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus.
(LISTEN to Jets-Giants analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #4: New Orleans Saints (-1) at Indianapolis Colts
There are three factors for my backing the Saints over the Colts in Week 8. First, New Orleans has a better early-down success rate and EPA than Indianapolis. Early-down success is a predictive metric because the whole playbook is available.
Second, Colts backup QB Gardner Minshew II played well last week but always flip flops between good and bad games. Minshew was awesome in his 1st start vs. the Houston Texans. Sucked his next start against Baltimore.
Colts QB Gardner Minshew throws a pass against the Cleveland Browns at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. (Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
He was great vs. the Titans in Week 5 then sucked the following week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Last week, Minshew carved up the Cleveland Browns so I'm expecting him to suck again in Week 8.
This leads me to the final factor: NOLA's defense. The Saints rank 4th in defensive EPA/play, 3rd in defensive success rate and 6th in yards per play allowed. I bet Minshew doesn't have two good games in a row vs. quality defenses.
(LISTEN to Saints-Colts analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #5: Cleveland Browns (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks
I just talked about how Minshew lit up the Browns last week. So you might be thinking: "Doesn't that mean Seahawks QB Geno Smith is in for a good game?" Instead, Cleveland's defense will have a bounce-back game.
Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett is the best defensive player in the NFL right now. San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson have a combined 393 passing yards against Cleveland this year.
Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett gets a strip-sack fumble on Colts QB Gardner Minshew at Lucas Oil Stadium. (Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
Also, Seattle's power ranking has been helped out by playing the EASIEST schedule in the league through Week 7. The Browns on the other hand have played the 3rd-toughest schedule thus far.
Finally, the Seahawks are terrible in high-leverage situations. Seattle's offense ranks 28th in 3rd-down conversion rate and 30th in red zone TD-rate. Cleveland is 5th in red-zone scoring and leads the NFL in 3rd-down conversion rate allowed.
(LISTEN to Browns-Seahawks analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).