2023 Circa Million V NFL Week 6 Selections: Holding Panthers Stock And Shorting The Bengals

The Houston Texans losing vs. the spread by a half-point to the Atlanta Falcons cost me a winning record in the Circa Million V last week. Even though my record is still above-.500 (13-12), I'm nowhere near the money in this contest. In fact, I'm not even going to look up where I'm at in the standings.

Week 5 Recap (2-3):

Circa Million V NFL Week 6 Picks

Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.

Circa Million Pick #1: Carolina Panthers (+13.5) at Miami Dolphins

I might be the last person holding Panthers stock but Carolina rookie QB Bryce Young will turn it around. Young made some good plays in garbage time last week vs. the Detroit Lions and Miami's defense has the 2nd-worst success rate in the NFL.

More importantly, since 1989, winless teams in Week 6 are 14-4-1 against the spread as double-digit underdogs. The Panthers are still a professional football team and being winless is an embarrassment. Carolina sneak in the backdoor or steal this game outright. Crazier things happen in the NFL every season.

(LISTEN to Panthers-Dolphins analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Pick #2: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+3)

The Vikings shouldn't be road favorites in a divisional game without Justin Jefferson. The Bears are a bad team. They are 1-4 overall and against the spread but so is Minnesota.

Chicago was a -1 favorite for this game on the preseason line. Since I cannot figure out why the market upgraded the Vikings 4 points in this spot, I'm just going to take the points with the Bears.

(LISTEN to Vikings-Bears analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Pick #3: Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4)

The Colts haven't won in Jacksonville since 2014 and Trevor Lawrence is the truth. I disagree with the notion that Indianapolis backup QB Gardner Minshew "isn't a big downgrade" from rookie QB Anthony Richardson. Minshew would've been Indy's Week 1 starter if that were true.

Finally, they say a "good ground game is a QB's best friend". Well, Jacksonville's defense is one of the best in the league vs. the run. If the Jaguars can make the Colts one-dimensional, I'll take my chances with Minshew beating me.

(LISTEN to Colts-Jaguars analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Pick #4: Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5)

Imma dig deeper into this game Monday morning but this line is disrespectful. If you combine the matchup and LA's situational edge, I don't see how you land on the Chargers being home underdogs.

Furthermore, this could certainly be a flat spot for the Cowboys. They got blasted last week by the San Francisco 49ers in primetime and served some humble pie. Dallas was reminded that it's a tier below the Niners and Philadelphia Eagles still.

Also, the fact that Dallas will have more fans in LA than the Chargers may hurt the Cowboys. They are better off playing in a difficult environment because that might wake Dallas up. But, that won't happen because the crowd at SoFi Stadium will be 75/25 Cowboys fans.

(LISTEN to Cowboys-Chargers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Pick #5: Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Seattle is the last team to make my Week 6 Circa Million V card because maybe Cincinnati is back to being good. The Bengals beat the Arizona Cardinals 34-20 in Week 5 and covered as -3 favorites. This is one of my two wins in last week's Circa Million.

That said, Cincy's offense is not "back to being good". The Bengals got out-gained by the Cardinals in yards per play. Joe Burrow did the right thing by connecting with WR Ja'Marr Chase 15 times for 193 receiving yards and 3 TDs.

Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase leaps over Cardinals CB Kei'Trel Clark (13) at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. (Joe Rondone/The Republic/USA TODAY NETWORK)

But, the Seahawks had their bye last week, which gives Pete Carroll extra time to figure out how to slow down Burrow and Chase. Speaking of which, Seattle has historically performed well in the 1 p.m. Sunday slate in the Eastern Time Zone.

D.K. METCALF GIVES JA’MARR CHASE BULLETIN BOARD MATERIAL, SETS UP TEAMMATE TO GET COOKED

Plus, the Seahawks have four good to elite players in their secondary including S Jamal Adams and CBs Tariq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon. The QB of Seattle's defense — LB Bobby Wagner — is still a top-five linebacker in football.

Moreover, the Seahawks have an edge in the trenches. They are in the top-10 for pass and run win rates on both sides of the ball, according to ESPN, whereas the Bengals rank 20th or worse in all four.

Lastly, Carroll believes in "establishing the run" and Cincinnati struggles to stop the run. The Bengals are 30th in yards per rush allowed on defense and Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III is 7th in rushing success rate among running backs.

(LISTEN to Seahawks-Bengals analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).