2023 Circa Million V NFL Week 5 Selections: Backing The 2021 Super Bowl Teams And Fading the Falcons
Like Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 5, I got off the mat in the Circa Million V last week. After consecutive losing weeks in Vegas's biggest NFL picks contest, I scratched out a 3-2 record in NFL Week 4.
Week 4 Recap (3-2):
As you'll read below, I submitted my NFL Week 5 card early. I'm heading into the weekend with a 1-0 record after the Bears beat the Washington Commanders Thursday. Through four-plus weeks, I'm 12-9 in the Circa Million V.
Circa Million V NFL Week 5 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
Circa Million Pick #1: Chicago Bears (+6) at Washington Commanders
If you submit your Circa Million picks early with the Thursday Night Football game then it has to be a LOCK. You have to enter all the selections at once. Meaning, you won't have the latest injury news for the other four picks you're submitting.
Well, Chicago (+6) is my favorite look this week. Not only did I take the points with the Bears but I sprinkled on their +220 moneyline as well. I'm happy to report that Chicago snapped its 14-game losing skid by upsetting Washington 40-20 Thursday.
Honestly, I'm jacked to the tits about this win. This is a tone-setter for my week. If you're in one of these season-long NFL handicapping contests, the best feeling in the world is banking a win before the weekend starts.
(LISTEN to Bears-Commanders analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #2: Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Arizona Cardinals
Instead of wasting more ink on this handicap, I'll just redirect you to my audio and written analysis below. Essentially, I'm backing Bengals QB Joe Burrow in a must-win and buying Cincinnati at its absolute low-point.
The Bengals were -7 on the lookahead line and the market is hammering the Cardinals. Cincy has looked awful and should be lowered in the power ratings. However, the pendulum has swung too far on this game.
The question I asked myself when assessing Bengals-Cardinals "At the end of the season will I look back at this game and feel dumb about not betting Cincinnati -3 over Arizona?" Obviously, my answer is "Yes, I'd feel like I left money on the table".
(LISTEN to Bengals-Cardinals analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #3: Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (+4)
This is another game I've already broken down in length. Please, please, please check out my OutKick Bets Podcast featuring NFL analyst Dan Zaksheske and Scott Martin where we give out our best bets for NFL Week 5.
Dan, Scott, and myself all had winning record last week. Scott and I are aligned with the Rams (+4) over the Eagles. When Scott and I have agreement, we are undefeated on the OutKick Bets Podcast.
My brief football analysis for this game is three of Philly's four wins this season have been by six or fewer points and LA has the better coach (Sean McVay) and QB (Matthew Stafford) combination.
(LISTEN to Eagles-Rams analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #4: Houston Texans (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons
When I circled the Texans after the NFL Week 5 spreads dropped, I felt like I could be falling into recency bias. Houston has won back-to-back games by at least 20 points vs. the Jaguars and Steelers. Atlanta has gotten clobbered in two straight by Jacksonville and Detroit.
But, I remembered that I was high on the Texans entering the season (relative to the market) and low on the Falcons. I leaned to Houston going Over its 7.5 alternate win total at +200 and bet Atlanta to go Under its 6.5 alternate win total at +310.
Texans QB C.J. Stroud celebrates after a TD vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL Week 4 at NRG Stadium in Houston. (Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports)
With that in mind, I'm not going to be scared off of the Texans now that the market is catching up to me. I like what I see out of Houston 1st-year offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and rookie QB C.J. Stroud.
In fact, everyone likes what they see out of Stroud since, entering Week 5, he is the favorite to win 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Stroud is averaging more than 300 passing yards per game with a 100.6 QB Rating and 0 INTs.
DESMOND RIDDER TRIES TO HIGH FIVE TEAMMATE, GETS YELLED AT INSTEAD DURING HEATED EXCHANGE
Also, Falcons QB Desmond Ridder is NOT a franchise quarterback. Ridder will be on the bench by Atlanta's Week 11 bye. Sharps backed the Falcons coming into the season with Ridder being the biggest question mark.
We are getting a reminder that no one is quarterback proof in the NFL. People are finding out that this season not even the GOAT, Bill Belichick, is quarterback proof. It is a long-shot to think Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith would be.
Typically, I'd avoid this spot. But, I truly think the wrong team is favored. My prediction is the Houston Texans win 24-20.
(LISTEN to Texans-Falcons analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #5: Tennessee Titans (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts
This is the last game to make my card. It was between the Titans or the Steelers (+4) at home vs. the Baltimore Ravens. The uncertainty around Pittsburgh's QB situation and the Ravens having a bunch of starters return to practice this week spooked me off the Steelers.
That said, Titans head coach Mike Vrabel is a stud and Tennessee's strength neutralizes Indy's. The Titans are allowing just 2.9 yards per rush, which leads the NFL. If Tennessee takes away the Colts' rushing attack, I don't see Richardson picking apart the Titans.
Furthermore, I found an awesome trend that instills confidence in me for Tennessee. Since Titans QB Ryan Tannehill became the starter in 2019, Tennessee is 9-0 straight up on the road in AFC South games with a +12.1 margin of victory.
Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill celebrates a TD vs. the Los Angeles Chargers at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. (Andrew Nelles/The Tennessean/USA TODAY NETWORK)
On top of that, I was pessimistic about Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson and 1st-year head coach Shane Steichen entering the year. At this point, I feel wrong about both. Richardson has flashed and the Colts appear to be well coached.
This is a Pros vs. Joe's game in the betting market. According to Pregame.com and Pro Football Focus, there is more money on Tennessee but more bets are on Indianapolis.
Finally, the Titans are getting bodies back on their offensive line. Tennessee RT Nicholas Petit-Frere returns from suspension. Titans 1st-round rookie offensive linemen Peter Skoronski is practicing this week after missing the last three games with an appendectomy.
(LISTEN to Titans-Colts analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).