2023 Circa Million V NFL Week 4 Selections: Fading A Bad Chargers Defense And Gimpy Joe Burrow

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After a 4-1 start to the season, I've gone 2-3 in back-to-back weeks of the 2023 Circa Million V NFL handicapping contest. I still have a winning record (8-7) and tied for 2,125th-place out of 5,273 entries. But, at this rate, I'm not making the money (top-100).

Week 3 Recap (2-3):

Here are the Circa Million V lines for NFL Week 4 followed by my picks …

Circa Million V NFL Week 4 Picks

Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.

Circa Million Pick #1: Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (+2)

This is my favorite game on the board because Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel is a beast as an underdog and the Titans respond after getting their butts whooped. On top of that, Bengals QB Joe Burrow is obviously less than 100% and Tennessee's defense line can bully Cincy's offensive line.

The Titans have bounced between +2 and +2.5 all week. Circa Sports is predicting Tennessee closes at +2 despite a majority of the action being on the Bengals. That tells me sharps are betting the underdog in this game.

(LISTEN to Bengals-Titans analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Pick #2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (+5.5)

New Orleans's defense mops Tampa Bay's offense annually. The Saints shutdown the Bucs when they had Tom Brady. Over the past two seasons, NOLA is 5-2 against the spread (ATS) with a +8.8 ATS margin vs. Tampa.

There's another nugget that I left out out of the handicap below. Since last year, the Saints are 4-0 overall (3-1 ATS) with a +10.3 scoring margin at home following a loss.

Finally, New Orleans got good injury news Friday as QB Derek Carr could end up playing. Carr left hurt in last week's loss to the Green Bay Packers but his injury isn't as bad as originally thought.

(LISTEN to Buccaneers-Saints analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Pick #3: Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)

I've spilled enough ink on Falcons-Jaguars. Let's just say I'm buying low on Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence and shorting Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder. If Lawrence's WRs would catch some of his deep balls, the Jaguars wouldn't be 1-2.

Plus, if the Falcons aren't winning or covering if they cannot run the ball. Ridder is one of the lowest graded QBs in the NFL and Jacksonville has a top-five run defense. This is a get-right spot for the Jaguars and the Falcons won't be able to keep up.

(LISTEN to Falcons-Jaguars analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Pick #4: Los Angeles Rams (Pick 'em) at Indianapolis Colts

Indy rookie QB Anthony Richardson will return to action after missing Week 3 with a concussion. Honestly, I'd prefer if Colts backup QB Gardner Minshew was out there because I don't believe he could win back-to-back games as a starter. That said, I'm zagging on the results of both teams.

Last week, the Rams had a TD called back, resulting in a short-field goal and were 1-for-11 on 3rd down in a 19-16 loss at the Bengals. LAR's offensive line is a question mark. But, if they can hold up vs. the Colts, Rams QB Matthew Stafford will carve up Indy's secondary.

Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford makes presnap reads vs. the Bengals at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio.

Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford makes presnap reads vs. the Bengals at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Furthermore, Indianapolis's upset on the road at the Baltimore Ravens was super flukey. Colts PK Matt Gay made four 50-yard FGs in the wind and rain.

Lastly, LAR closed as +3.5 underdogs in Cincinnati on Monday Night Football in Week 3. You're telling me the Colts are only 3.5 points worse than the Bengals with Burrow out there? That's not true even if Burrow was playing on one leg.

(LISTEN to Rams-Colts analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Pick #5: Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

I'm running it back with the Raiders after they let me down last week. Las Vegas was the last team to make my Week 3 card. Pittsburgh beat the Raiders 23-18 thanks to turnovers by Jimmy Garoppolo and dumb decisions by Vegas head coach Josh McDaniel.

But, there's no way the Chargers should be laying -5.5 with their injury report. They will be without WR Mike Williams and C Corey Linsley. FS Derwin James, edge rusher Joey Bosa, and RB Austin Ekeler are also on LAC's injury report as "doubtful" or "questionable".

Furthermore, the Chargers (-5.5) is too big of a number considering their defense. LAC's defense allows the 2nd-most yards per play in the NFL and rank 28th in points per game allowed.

Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo is slow to get up after getting hit by the Pittsburgh Steelers at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo is slow to get up after getting hit by the Pittsburgh Steelers at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. (Sam Morris/Getty Images)

Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo spent time in the concussion protocol but practiced later in the week. Even if he cannot go, the Chargers have no one that can cover Raiders WR Davante Adams. Either Raiders backup QBs Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O'Connell can move the ball vs. LAC's defense.

Also, the Chargers don't have a home-crowd advantage in this game. The Raiders have more fans in LA than the Bolts. Since 2022, the Chargers are 2-4-1 ATS as home favorites.

(LISTEN to Raiders-Chargers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).