2023 Circa Million V NFL Week 3 Selections: NY Jets Can Break Belichick Curse, Kirk Cousins Will Outduel Justin Herbert
The Circa Million V 1st quarterly prize is in my rear view after a losing NFL Week 2. Two entries are 10-0 through the 1st two weeks and more than a thousand players have a better record than my 6-4 effort.
That said, my confidence isn't shaken and I'm not going to let Week 2 deter me from my goal, which is winning this damn thing. Just like most of the teams I'm picking in Week 3, I'm expecting a bounce-back week in the NFL.
Week 2 Recap (2-3):
Here are the Circa Million V lines for NFL Week 3 followed by my picks …
Check out the audio versions of my NFL Week 3 betting breakdowns on this week’s OutKick Bets podcast featuring Fox News and Business contributor Scott Martin.
Circa Million V NFL Week 3 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
Circa Million Pick #1: New England Patriots at New York Jets (+2.5)
I'm not going to spill any more ink on this matchup. You can click the link below to read the analysis or listen to my OutKick Bets podcast for my handicap. The gist of my breakdown is New York's defense will abuse New England QB Mac Jones Sunday.
(LISTEN to Patriots-Jets analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #2: Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (-1)
The Chargers are the fake sharp pick of the week. A majority of the action is on LA yet Minnesota is a home favorite. Most football handicappers expect LA to bounce back in Week 3 because everyone is smitten with Chargers QB Justin Herbert.
But, I'm more impressed with Vikings QB Kirk Cousins through the 1st two weeks. Plus, Minnesota 1st-year defensive coordinator Brian Flores has extended prep time to find ways to give Herbert looks he's not ready for.
(LISTEN to Chargers-Vikings analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #3: Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs (-13)
This is another game I hit earlier this week. Essentially, Kansas City's offense is due and the Chiefs have an underrated defense. Whether Patrick Mahomes goes nuclear or KC shuts down an inept Bears QB Justin Fields, I'm willing to lay the -13 with the Chiefs in Week 3.
(LISTEN to Bears-Chiefs analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #4: New Orleans Saints (+2) at Green Bay Packers
This is a case of Wrong Team Favored. NOLA is healthier with a better defense, starting QB (Derek Carr) and offensive weapons. In fact, I'd go as far as to say New Orleans has a top-five defense in the NFL.
The Saints smacked the Packers 38-3 when these teams last met in Week 1 of 2021. NOLA held Green Bay to just 229 total yards and turned the Packers over three times. Granted, Aaron Rodgers was still Green Bay's QB and Sean Payton was still New Orleans' coach.
New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr rolls out to pass vs. the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
Otherwise, these teams have a lot of the same personnel. Current Packers coach Matt LaFleur was on the sidelines for Green Bay in that game. And current Saints coach Dennis Allen was their defensive coordinator.
Also, Green Bay's offense has mad injury concerns. Packers LT David Bakhtiari, RB Aaron Jones, and No. 1 WR Christian Watson all missed last week's game and are "questionable" to play in Week 3. Green Bay G Elgton Jenkins is out as well.
If two of these three players are officially ruled out Sunday morning, I'm betting more money on the Saints. But, as it stands, New Orleans makes my Circa Million V card because road 'dogs have been profitable thus far and I don't love the options this week.
(LISTEN to Saints-Packers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #5: Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)
Ultimately, this is a fade a public 'dog and recency bias pick. Pittsburgh beat the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football last week and Las Vegas got crushed at the Buffalo Bills.
Las Vegas Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo drops back to pass vs. the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. (Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)
However, no one in the NFL is as bad as or as good as their previous game. Most of the action is on the Steelers as of Saturday afternoon. If Pittsburgh was that good it wouldn't have gone from a favorite to an underdog.
(LISTEN to Steelers-Raiders analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).