2023 Circa Million V NFL Week 13 Picks: Fading Phony Broncos, Buying Rams Stock
We are nearing the final stretch of the NFL 2023 regular-season and I'm nowhere near the money in the Circa Million V football handicapping contest. If I don't hit 90% of my bets from Week 13 on, I won't finish inside the top-100.
Week 12 Recap: (3-2)
However, after the Seattle Seahawks covered +9 vs. the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football, my Circa Million V record climbed to 32-28-1. Now, I just need my other four picks to cover for my 1st 5-0 of the season.
Circa Million V NFL Week 13 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
Circa Million Pick #1: Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
First of all, I'm a bit of a "Rams whisperer" and 6-3 when betting them this year. I was high on LAR relative to the market entering this season and this is the healthiest the Rams have been since they won the 2021 Super Bowl.
The Browns on the other hand are missing QB Deshaun Watson, RB Nick Chubb, and LT Jack Conklin. Cleveland pass rusher Myles Garrett, No. 1 CB Denzel Ward, and WR Amari Cooper are all dealing with injuries.
Furthermore, the Browns signed QB Joe Flacco recently and could be starting Sunday. Flacco was one of the worst QBs in the NFL at the end of 2022. The Rams' defense isn't exactly the '85 Bears but I'll take my chances with them vs. Flacco.
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford throws a pass vs. the Cardinals at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Also, I'm buying stock in LAR's offense now that RB Kyren Williams is healthy. Rams QB Matt Stafford has an awesome WR tandem (Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp).
Finally, the Browns' defense is horrible on the road. They allow 2.4 fewer yards per play in Cleveland (5.8-3.4) and have 12 more sacks (23-11) at home. If the Denver Broncos can score 29 points vs. the Browns, so can the Rams.
(LISTEN to Browns-Rams analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #2: Seattle Seahawks (+9) at Dallas Cowboys
Usually when I submit my Circa Million V picks with a pick in the Thursday Night Football game, it's because that's my favorite bet of the week. In this case, I just had a tough time finding five other games I liked.
Well, the Seahawks came through for me when they lost to the Cowboys 41-35 Thursday. You can see my math in the link above or hear me breakdown this pick in detail on my podcast below.
(LISTEN to Seahawks-Cowboys analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #3: Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (+5.5)
This is one of the featured games in my Weekend Betting Guide so I encourage you to check that out. Essentially, the Chiefs are laying too big of a number because NFL primetime games are low-scoring affairs and Packers QB Jordan Love is playing well lately.
(LISTEN to Chiefs-Packers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #4: Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-3.5)
Broncos-Texans is another game I already handicapped in my Weekend Betting Guide below. The TLDR-version of this pick is Denver has been dumb-lucky for its active 5-game winning streak and Houston is tiers above the Broncos in raw efficiency.
(LISTEN to Broncos-Texans analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #5: Carolina Panthers (+5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I'm going to be pissed if the Panthers lose. They are a stinky 'dog and I've been dead wrong about Carolina since the preseason. Frankly, I thought the Panthers rookie QB Bryce Young and now former head coach Frank Reich would work well together.
Nope. The Panthers suck and they don't even have their 1st pick in next year's draft. That said, Carolina does get a boost in Week 13 for firing Reich.
I'm not sure if the Panthers will be better off without Reich long-term but it should motivate them this week. Last season, Carolina fired former coach Matt Rhule mid-season. Two weeks later the Panthers upset Tom Brady and the Bucs.
Carolina Panthers QB Bryce Young drops back to pass against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. (Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
Coach firings work more in the NFL than NBA or MLB because of the non-guaranteed contracts. In the NFL, players make rosters (aka have jobs) because a coach vouches for them. Once a coach is fired, players think "Oh no, will I get fired next?"
The Bucs shouldn't be more than -4 favorites vs. any NFL team. They are -29 in 1st-down differential, 27th in net yards per play, and 30th in net early-down success rate. Tampa's pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL. Even Young and the Panthers can have a good game Sunday.
(LISTEN to Panthers-Buccaneers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).