2023 Circa Million V NFL Week 12 Picks Include Bills-Eagles, Ravens-Chargers
I'm down 0-1 in Week 12 the Circa Million V NFL handicapping contest after foolishly backing the Washington Commanders to cover at the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving. I'll need a 3-1 Sunday for a 3rd straight winning week in the contest.
Week 11 Recap: (3-2)
As a result of Commanders-Cowboys, my Circa Million V record fell to 28-27-1 entering Sunday of NFL Week 12. That said, my confidence in my picks this week is sky-high and I had to whittle seven likes down to five picks.
Circa Million V NFL Week 12 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
Circa Million Pick #1: Washington Commanders (+12) at Dallas Cowboys
Well, this sucks. The Cowboys embarrassed the Commanders 45-10 in Dallas on Thanksgiving. Now, the best I can do in Week 12 is 4-1. I don't have an excuse or a "Yeah, but". It was just a complete misread.
As you can read above, I figured Washington would bounce-back after a humiliating 31-19 loss to the New York Giants and rookie QB Tommy DeVito. Also, the Commanders were 5-1-1 against the spread (ATS) as underdogs entering Week 12.
However, none of that mattered and Dallas out-classed Washington Thursday. The Cowboys are now 2-2 straight up (SU) and 1-3 ATS on Thanksgiving since hiring head coach Mike McCarthy in 2021.
(LISTEN to Commanders-Cowboys analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #2: Buffalo Bills (+3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Buffalo plus the points is my best bet in NFL Week 12 and in my Weekend Betting Guide. Instead of me spilling more ink about Bills-Eagles, I encourage you to read the article below or check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for NFL Week 12.
(LISTEN to Bills-Eagles analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #3: Los Angeles Rams (Pick 'em) at Arizona Cardinals
My rationale for backing LAR here is simple. The Rams have the better quarterback, coach, and defense. Since hiring Sean McVay in 2017, the Rams are 12-2 SU and ATS with an +8.4 spread differential vs. the Cardinals.
This is a Pros vs. Joe's game in the betting market as well. Per Pregame.com, more money is on the Rams whereas more bets are on the Cardinals. Typically, you want to follow the cash column when it's counter to the public since professional bettors wager a lot more money.
Rams head coach Sean McVay and QB Matthew Stafford converse prior to playing the Tennessee Titans at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
Finally, Arizona's cover as +5.5 underdogs in a 21-16 loss at the Houston Texans is misleading. The Texans tried to give that game away but the Cardinals wouldn't take it.
Houston out-gained Arizona by 100 total yards. Plus, Texans QB C.J. Stroud threw more interceptions to the Cardinals (three) in Week 11 than he did in the previous nine games combined (two).
(LISTEN to Rams-Cardinals analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #4: New Orleans Saints (Pick 'em) at Atlanta Falcons
Both teams had a bye in Week 11 and the extra prep time neutralizes any coaching edge. When you remove coaching from this matchup, which I consider a draw, the Saints have the better quarterback and defense.
NOLA QB Derek Carr cleared concussion protocol this week in practice and will start Sunday. But, I'd take Carr or Saints backup QB Jameis Winston over Falcons QBs Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke.
New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr drops back to pass against the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. (Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
Furthermore, New Orleans is tiers above Atlanta in net efficiency. For instance, the Saints rank 11th in expected points added per play differential (the Falcons are 22nd) and 14th in net early-down success rate (the Falcons are 19th).
Lastly, New Orleans has a veteran roster and the Saints are 6-1 SU and ATS vs. the Falcons over their last seven meetings. Atlanta's last win over NOLA came in 2021 with former Falcons QB Matt Ryan vs. former Saints QB Trevor Siemian.
(LISTEN to Saints-Falcons analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #5: Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Ravens-Chargers is the other NFL game in my Weekend Betting Guide for November 24-26. The TLDR-version of that breakdown is Baltimore has an edge at quarterback, coaching, and defense.
Plus, I'm predicting Lamar Jackson has an MVP performance on Sunday Night Football vs. this soft Chargers defense. Lamar balls out in primetime games. His QB Rating and yards per rush in primetime are better than any other time split for Jackson.
Ravens RB Gus Edwards celebrates with QB Lamar Jackson after rushing for a TD vs. the Cincinnati Bengals at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. (Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports)
Finally, I'm the "Ravens whisperer". I backed Baltimore in its last three covers against the Detroit Lions (38-6 in Week 7), the Seattle Seahawks (37-3 in Week 9), and the Cincinnati Bengals (34-20 in Week 11). I even faded the Ravens when they lost to the Cleveland Browns 33-31 in Week 10.
(LISTEN to Ravens-Chargers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark