2023 Circa Million V NFL Week 10 Picks Are All Stinky 'Dogs

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Me picking all underdogs for my Circa Million V NFL Week 10 entry isn't part of a "strategy." It is completely random. However, the public and favorites have been crashing like crazy this season and the sportsbooks will win that money back.

Week 9 Recap: (2-3)

My Circa Million V record is 22-22-1 entering Week 10. Barring a 75% win rate from here on out, I'm not cashing in this thing. But, if I finish five games above-.500 or better, I'll talk myself into entering again next year. Actually, who am I kidding? I'm playing next year.

Circa Million V NFL Week 10 Picks

Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.

Circa Million Pick #1: Cleveland Browns (+6.5) at Baltimore Ravens

I've already put pen to paper and recorded a podcast for this handicap. The TLDR-version is 'dogs in AFC North games usually cover. The Browns are underrated by the market and Cleveland's defense is good enough to keep this game close.

(LISTEN to Browns-Ravens analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Pick #2: San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)

Speaking of "underrated by the market", the Jaguars could easily be the 2nd-best team in the NFL. Jacksonville's only losses are to the Kansas City Chiefs and a weird game against the Houston Texans.

Plus, Jaguars coach Doug Pederson has more Super Bowls than 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan (1-0) and playoff wins with two different franchises. Trevor Lawrence is a top-five to top-10 NFL QB and I'm not convinced Brock Purdy isn't a "system QB" yet.

(LISTEN to 49ers-Jaguars analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Pick #3: Tennessee Titans (+1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is the biggest coaching mismatch of NFL Week 10. Bucs coach Todd Bowles will most likely be fired if Tampa misses the playoffs. Titans coach Mike Vrabel consistently gets the most from his limited roster and won the 2021 NFL Coach of the Year.

Finally, Vrabel has extra time to prep, which is a spot Tennessee is profitable in. This gives him more time to coach up Titans rookie QB Will Levis vs. the Buccaneers' weak pass defense. Tampa Bay's defense is 31st in yards per pass and 25th in opponent's QB Rating.

(LISTEN to Titans-Buccaneers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Pick #4: Washington Commanders (+6.5) at Seattle Seahawks

It's hard to pick five NFL games every week and this one is mostly a "hunch". Meaning, I have a hunch the Seahawks are overrated. The Seahawks are horrible on 3rd down and in the red zone. As a result, their recent results have been flukey.

Also, Washington QB Sam Howell has a better expected points added (EPA) per play plus completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) than Seattle QB Geno Smith, per RBSDM.com. EPA per play is essentially "positive plays" and CPOE is "throwing guys open".

Furthermore, the Commanders are +12 in 1st downs this season and the Seahawks are -28. Seattle had fewer 1st downs in games against the 2-7 New York Giants and P.J. Walker-led Cleveland Browns.

Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith calls a play at the line of scrimmage vs. the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland.

Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith calls a play at the line of scrimmage vs. the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. (Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

Everyone is expecting the Seahawks to bounce-back from an blowout loss Week 9 at the Baltimore Ravens. Per Pregame.com, roughly 75% of the betting action is on Seattle as of Saturday afternoon.

The NFL is the only sport where the public moves the odds. It should be alarming to Seahawks backers that the sportsbooks aren't moving them up to TD-favorites. And, simply put, 75% of bettors don't beat The House.

Finally, Washington is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in away games this season and three of its four victories are on the road. While the Seahawks are 3-5-1 ATS as home favorites since 2022.

(LISTEN to Commanders-Seahawks analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Pick #5: Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (+2)

I swapped the Minnesota Vikings with the Cardinals last minute. Basically, I'm gambling that Arizona QB Kyler Murray hits the ground running in his season debut. As long as Murray doesn't look like Deshaun Watson, Kyler is a top-10 starting QB in Week 10.

Murray has been practicing in-full for weeks now so I expect him to know the playbook even though Call of Duty came out Friday. Hopefully, Kyler waits until next week to start playing COD with the boys.

Pick #5 in NFL Week 10: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray congratulates his teammates after a TD vs. the New York Giants at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray congratulates his teammates after a TD vs. the New York Giants at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. (Joe Rondone/The Republic/USA TODAY NETWORK)

Rust isn't the only reason the betting market is hesitant to back Murray and the Cardinals. There's also talk about Arizona tanking for a better draft pick, which I classify as "nonsense".

The Cardinals took an offensive linemen in the 2023 NFL Draft. And there's no guarantee Southern California QB Caleb Williams or North Carolina QB Drake Maye are better than Kyler.

Lastly, who are the Falcons to be road favorites?! They are 2-7 ATS with the 2nd-easiest schedule in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. Arizona upset the Dallas Cowboys earlier this season. Atlanta doesn't have a win like that on its resume.