2023 Circa Million V NFL Week 1 Picks

The Circa Million V in Las Vegas is the most famous NFL handicapping contest. Entrants have to pick five NFL games against the spread every regular-season week. It's a $1,000 entry with $6 million in prizes and the winner gets $1 million at the end of the regular season.

This is my 3rd straight season playing in the Circa Million. In 2022, my Geoffrow Records Circa Million IV entry went 48-38-4 to tie for 668th out of 4,683 entries. This year, I have two entries. One for myself, which I'll track on OutKick, and the other with my brother.

Here are the Circa Million V lines for NFL Week 1 followed by my picks ...

Circa Million V NFL Week 1 Picks

Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.

Circa Pick #1: Houston Texans (+10) at Baltimore Ravens

Frankly, this is a "gut-feeling" pick. I just have a good feeling about Texans 1st-year coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie QB C.J. Stroud. Friends think I'm crazy but I like Houston's roster. The Texans have a good mix of veterans and young talent.

The Ravens lack talent at premium defensive positions. They are thin in the secondary aside from CB Marlon Humphrey, who had foot surgery and is "out" for Week 1. Plus, Baltimore's defense had a bottom-10 pressure rate in 2022.

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson warms up prior to an NFL preseason football game vs. the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida. (Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

Also, the Ravens are ushering in a new offensive scheme. First-year Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken is supposed to have Ravens QB Lamar Jackson air it out more this season. And I'm not convinced that's what's best for Baltimore.

Essentially, I think the Ravens take a step back defensively in 2023 and their offense could have growing pains in the 1st year of a new system.

(LISTEN to Texans-Ravens analysis on this week's OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Circa Pick #2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Most NFL talking heads mentioned fading the Vikings this season after their unsustainable winning record in one-score games last year. Well, I'm fading Minnesota in Week 1 with a team no one likes.

The Buccaneers are one of the least popular NFL teams entering 2023. They have the worst odds to win a terrible NFC South and Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles is on the hot-seat.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield celebrates with LT Tristan Wirfs after throwing a TD against the Ravens at Raymond James Stadium. (Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

However, the Bucs have a top-10 NFL defense when healthy and the Vikings cannot stop a nosebleed. I'm optimistic QB Baker Mayfield has success vs. this trash Minnesota defense and Tampa's defense can slow the Vikings' attack.

Again, this is mostly a "fade the public" pick. I don't see the Buccaneers getting a lot of Circa Million V contest clicks in Week 1. And typically the less popular picks are more successful.

(LISTEN to Buccaneers-Vikings analysis on this week's OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Circa Pick #3: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+2)

This is a hell of a Monday Night Football game to cap off Week 1. These teams split their 2022 season series but the Jets covered both meetings. The only change New York made to its roster this offseason was trading for Aaron Rodgers.

Jets QB Aaron Rodgers warms up prior to the game vs. the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

I project the Jets to have the best defense in the NFL this season. If Rodgers is a league-average QB, the Jets should be favorite at home vs. every team. Rodgers has a certified No. 1 WR to work with in Garrett Wilson.

More importantly, home underdogs in division games in Week 1 are 15-2 against the spread over the past 10 seasons. This is a "wrong team favored" situation and we are getting at least 3.0 points worth of value with the Jets.

(LISTEN to Bills-Jets analysis on this week's OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Circa Pick #4: Los Angeles Rams (+5.5) at Seattle Seahawks

This would be my favorite Week 1 pick if Rams WR Cooper Kupp were playing. But, Seahawks QB Geno Smith should not be a -5.5 favorite vs. Rams QB Matt Stafford and LA coach Sean McVay.

Smith was pretty much out of the league before Seattle coach Pete Carroll gave him another shot. I'm not convinced the old Geno Smith won't return at some point this season. And if Stafford is healthy, he is a top-three QB in the NFC.

Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford throws the ball during minicamp at Cal Lutheran University. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

I'm willing to give the Rams a slight pass for last season. LA had some of the worst injury-luck in the NFL last season and Stafford only played nine games. The Rams finished 5-12 but played hard at the end of the year.

Finally, this is another game to "fade the public" in. Per Pregame.com, more than 80% of the action is on the Seahawks as of Saturday morning. That matches what I'm reading on social media and hearing on podcasts about these teams.

(LISTEN to Rams-Seahawks analysis on this week's OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).

Circa Pick #5: Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+2.5)

The Browns are the pick I'm least confident in because I hear too many people picking them. Every Tom, Dick, and Jerry with an NFL betting podcast is giving Cleveland out as their "upset special".

That said, this is another "wrong team is favored". The Browns give Bengals QB Joe Burrow issues and there is slow-start potential for Cincy this season. Burrow missed a lot of practice this offseason with a calf injury.

Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett sacks Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio. (Nick Cammett/Getty Images)

He missed a lot of practice in last year's offseason with an appendix removal and the Bengals started 0-2 in 2022. Also, Cincinnati losing both starting safeties (Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell) in free agency weakens the defense.

Finally, this game means a lot more to Cleveland. Deshaun Watson wants to prove he's still an elite QB. He can start to earn his reputation back as a top-10 NFL starting QB with a good game vs. the Bengals Sunday.

(LISTEN to Bengals-Browns analysis on this week's OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).