2023 BMW Championship Best Bets: Hideki Matsuyama, Viktor Hovland
Only the top-50 golfers of the FedExCup Playoff rankings will be in the 2023 BMW Championship field at Olympia Field Country Club in Chicago this week. It's the penultimate event of the PGA Tour 2022-23 season and precedes next week's TOUR Championship.
Lucas Glover won the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship last week for his 2nd straight victory on Tour. Glover beat reigning back-to-back BMW champion Patrick Cantlay in a playoff to win the St. Jude.
The Olympia Fields Country Club's North Course in Chicago hosts the BMW. Unlike recent hosts of the BMW, Olympia Fields has the difficulty of U.S. Open-style venue.
Olympia hosted the BMW Championship in 2020 and Jon Rahm beat Dustin Johnson in a playoff with a winning score 4-under. Only five golfers shot under-par that week at Olympia.
The North Course is a par 70 course with Bentgrass greens that is 7,366 yards. There are two Par 5s, four Par 3s, and 12 Par 4s. The North course has eight holes with water hazards and 91 sand traps.
Crossover courses with Olympia Fields CC
Key stats used for the 2023 BMW Championship
BMW Championship 2023 Best Bets
For placement bets, shop at sportsbooks that pay in full instead of applying “dead heat rules”. My strategy for the BMW Championship is to earn 20 units (u) if one of my guys wins. Otherwise, I’m betting placements to profit 1u plus the outright wager lost.
Hideki Matsuyama
One of the five golfers that shot under-par at the 2022 BMW Championship was Matsuyama. It's insanely difficult to hit the greens-in-regulation at the North Course so golfers need to get up-and-down with chip shots usually.
At the 2020 BMW, Matsuyama led the field in SG: ARG. Matsuyama ranks 14th in SG: ARG on Tour this season. ARG-play is one of the most underrated parts of Hideki's game.
If it weren’t for putting, Matsuyama would have a win on Tour this season. Over the last 36 rounds, he leads the field in scoring chances. But, Hideki is the 2nd-worst putter in this field on Bentgrass over the last 24 rounds.
The good thing about Olympia Fields is the course is so difficult most of the field won't be putting for birdie anyways. In fact, none of the Par 4s at Olympia Fields played under-par at the 2020 BMW.
Matsuyama won the 2021 Masters and plays well at U.S. Open-type courses. Hideki won the 2014 Memorial Tournament and finished solo 4th at the 2022 U.S. Open, both played at comp courses to Olympia Fields.
Finally, Matsuyama is 4th in my stats-based model, 5th in SG: APP, 6th in Bogey Avoidance, and 10th in Par 4 EFF: 450-500 yards out during that stretch. Hideki is solid throughout the bag, which is required at tough courses.
My 1st pick for the BMW Championship: Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Olympia Fields is a big-boy, driver-heavy course. Hovland is 6th in total driving this season on Tour, which accounts for accuracy and distance off-the-tee (OTT).
He is actually lost strokes OTT last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. But, I'm willing to consider than an outlier because Hovland picked up strokes OTT in the 17 events prior to last week's St. Jude.
Also, Hovland has been the best player on Tour this season that hasn't won a major. He finished T13 at The 151st Open Championship in July, solo 19th at the 2023 U.S. Open, T2 at the PGA Championship in May and T7 at the Masters in April.
Viktor Hovland lines up a putt on the 18th green during the 1st round of the BMW Championship on the North Course at Olympia Fields Country Club. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Hovland got his 1st big win on Tour at the Memorial in June. He finished T3 at THE PLAYERS Championship in March and hasn't missed a cut all season. Aside from the Big 3 (Rory, Scheffler, and Rahm), Hovland is having the best season on Tour.
Furthermore, Hovland leads this field in Par 4 EFF: 450-500 yards over the last 36 rounds. Hovland ranks 5th on Tour this season in birdies or better on Par 4s.
The bottom line is Hovland has the clubhead speed and ball striking to overpower any course in the world. He notoriously weak ARG but Hovland is 8th in this field for SG: Putting on Bentgrass over the last 24 rounds.
My 2nd pick for the BMW Championship: Viktor Hovland
Heads up: DraftKings has a promotion that allows you to put a +300 odds boost on any golfer's outright at the BMW. It's only a $50 maximum bet. Definitely use this "odds boost" on the shortest favorite you bet for this tournament.