2023 AFC West Division Preview: Denver Broncos Are Trendy Bounce-Back Pick But Be Careful
With exactly one month left until the 2023-24 NFL season kicks off, OutKick is unveiling its team-by-team preview series. Over the next four weeks, we will go division-by-division, covering all 32 NFL teams. The series begins with the AFC and NFC West, starting with last season's worst finisher in each division. For the AFC West, that's the Denver Broncos.
Denver Broncos 2022-23 Record: 5-12
Denver Broncos 2023-24 Win Total Over/Under: 8.5
Offseason Moves
The biggest offseason move for the Denver Broncos was the hiring of head coach Sean Payton after a disastrous tenure by Nathaniel Hackett. They struggled to protect Russell Wilson last season, so the Broncos signed free agent offensive linemen Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers.
In addition, they signed former 2019 Arizona Cardinals third-round pick, defensive lineman Zach Allen, and added some additional veteran depth on defense.
Denver did not have a first-round pick in the NFL Draft thanks to last year's Russell Wilson trade. In the second round, they selected wide receiver Marvin Mims from Oklahoma. They had two third-round selections, which they used on linebacker Drew Sanders (Arkansas) and cornerback Riley Moss (Iowa).
Season Outlook
The Denver Broncos added two big-name free agents to help their offensive line. As far as the rest of the roster upgrading, the team didn't do too much. They seem content to run it back with nearly the same roster. Denver is hoping that Sean Payton helps Russell Wilson rediscover his form in a big way.
Based on the Vegas odds, oddsmakers think the addition of Sean Payton is worth 3.5 wins over last season. I don't see it.
The Denver Broncos are counting one new head coach Sean Payton to get them out of the basement of the AFC West for the 2023-24 NFL season. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
This Denver Broncos roster had myriad holes last season and they gave up their first-round pick for Wilson. To say that simply going from Hackett to Payton is worth four wins -- which is how many more games they'd need to win this season to hit their OVER -- is overrating Payton. They're the third-best team in the division and a distant third behind Kansas City and Los Angeles.
I know the Denver Broncos are a trendy pick to be a "surprise" team in 2023, but those are always the ones to shy away from. When a team gets too "trendy," that's the best time to run the other way. I think Denver improves slightly on last season, but this is a seven-win team in my estimation.