2 NBA Best Bets Saturday For Clippers-Celtics, Lakers-Warriors
Technically, I made three bets in the NBA Saturday. My 1st bet was in Wizards-Pistons, which tips off noon ET. I made that bed while lying in bed and didn't have time to write up my analysis before it started.
But, I did announce my Detroit -3 look on X (formerly known as Twitter), @Geoffery_Clark, early Saturday morning. This is the shameless plug for my Twitter that you should be following for other betting thoughts and random commentary.
Anywho, there is wall-to-wall action in the Association Saturday. It's "Rivalry Week" in the NBA and, as long as the stars participate, Saturday could be one of the best days in the 2023-24 regular season. I'm handicapping both Los Angeles basketball teams in my two ...
NBA Saturday Best Bets
Los Angeles Clippers (+7.5) at Boston Celtics, 7 p.m. ET
The legal U.S. sportsbooks are dealing a Clippers +7.5 while the sharper offshore shops have Los Angeles as +7 'dogs. Usually, the U.S. sportsbooks follow the offshore spots so I'm expecting the Clippers to have their spread lowered soon.
Regardless, LAC has the best player on the floor in Kawhi Leonard. This is the 2nd of a back-to-back for the Clippers, which is definitely a reason to stay away from them here. But, Leonard didn't play in the 4th quarter of Los Angeles's 127-107 win at the Toronto Raptors Friday.
Clippers wing Paul George attacks the paint on Boston Celtics PG Jrue Holiday at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports)
The Celtics beat the brakes off of a Kawhi-less Clippers 145-108 in LA Dec. 23rd. Boston was -4.5 favorites for that game so some might see "Celtics -7.5" at home and think they are getting a good deal. Yet, the Clippers have a better record, net rating, and spread differential this month.
Ultimately, Boston isn't 6 points better than LAC so I'm willing to play the Clippers down to +5. These teams probably have the best two starting 5s in the NBA and this could be a 2024 NBA Finals preview.
Finally, the Celtics turn games into 3-point contests and Los Angeles has the best 3-point percentage in the NBA. That said, I wouldn't hate if you waited until the official starting 5's are announced since the Clippers are the biggest "load managers" in the Association.
My prediction: Clippers 119, Celtics 116
Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors (-1.5), 8:30 p.m. ET
Lakers-Warriors is the main event of Saturday's loaded NBA slate. This is the 1st time these teams have met this season. The Lake Show eliminated Golden State 4-2 in the 2023 Western Conference Semifinals.
The Lakers have alternated between winning and losing over their last five games with the most recent being a 141-132 home win over the Chicago Bulls. The Warriors split their 1st two games after a 9-day layoff due to the tragic death of one of their assistant coaches.
Warriors legend Stephen Curry passes the ball over Los Angeles Lakers All-Star LeBron James in Game 2 of the 2023 NBA playoffs at the Chase Center in San Francisco. (Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports)
With that in mind, Golden State is well rested and the Lakers are terrible on the road. LAL's defensive rating falls from 9th at home to 23rd in away games. The Lakers allow 9.4 more points per game on the road. Their defensive 3-point shooting goes from
Furthermore, the Lakers allow the highest rate of wide-open 3-pointers in the NBA. "Wide-open" is when the 3-point shooter has at least six feet of distance from the nearest defender. Obviously, the Warriors have the 3-point shooting to exploit that.
Golden State has a few athletic, defensive wings to throw at LeBron James including Warriors forwards Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, and Jonathan Kuminga. Lastly, the Dubs have the best defensive shot quality in the NBA, per CTG, and the Lakers are one of the worst outside shooting teams in the Association.