2 'Locks' For Sunday's Round Of 32 Games In The NCAA Tournament

The Round of 32 in the 2024 NCAA Tournament concludes Sunday and I'm scaling back the bets. After making four bets on each of the first two days of the tourney, I gave out three looks for Saturday's slate. Since I don't have a sports betting model and I don't follow college basketball religiously as I do with the NFL and NBA, I have no business betting 3-4 games per day. I just got caught up in the excitement. Can you blame me? 

NCAA Tournament 2024 Betting Card: Sunday, March 24th 

The odds are the best available at the time of writing. 

South Region: 2-seed Marquette (-3.5) vs. Colorado, 12:10 p.m. ET on CBS 

The Golden Eagles should own the "battle for possessions", which is the most important in one-and-done basketball. Marquette is 26th in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) out of 363 D-1 schools and 20th defensively, per Ken Pom. Colorado is 18th in offensively and 300th in defensive TOV%.

Marquette can run Colorado off the court. The Golden Eagles are 35th in field-goal attempt rate in transition, according to Hoop-Math.com. The Buffaloes are 298th nationally in defensive effective field goal shooting (eFG%) in transition.

Also, Marquette is third in minutes’ continuity and three of its starters played in the NCAA Tournament last season, including both starting guards, PG Tyler Kolek and SG Kam Jones. Whereas the Buffaloes only had two starters from this team on their NCAA tourney team last year. 

Marquette Golden Eagles PG Tyler Kolek controls the ball vs. the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers guard in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at Gainbridge FieldHouse in Indiana. (Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports)

Colorado PG K.J. Simpson and SG J’Vonne Hardley were injured for last year's tournament. Veteran leadership at guard is huge for tournament basketball and Marquette has perhaps the best backcourt in the country. Kolek led the nation in assists per game (7.6) and Jones ranks eighth in the Big East in Player Efficiency Rating.

Finally, the Golden Eagles get much better looks. Bart Torvik says Marquette has a better dunk rate and long-mid-range field goal attempt rate on both ends of the floor. The "dunk rate" stat is self-explanatory and long-mid-range 2-pointers are the most inefficient shot in basketball.

Bet 1.1u on the Golden Eagles -3.5 (-110) at Caesars. Marquette is playable up to -5. 

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South Region: 9-seed Texas A&M (+10) vs. 1-seed Houston, 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT

The Cougars aren't good enough offensively to beat the Aggies by double digits. They are 203rd in eFG% nationally, 205th in assist-per-field-goal rate, and 298th in free-throw shooting rate, per Ken Pom. Houston relies on turnovers, but Texas A&M is 18th in offensive TOV%.

Furthermore, the Aggies are aggressive and rank 1st in offensive rebounding rate and their offensive FT/FGA rate is 5.0% higher than the national average. Well, the Cougars are 223rd in defensive rebounding rate and 309th in defensive FT/FGA rate. Also, I’m not convinced the Big 12 is all it’s cracked up to be. The Cougars had the 227th-toughest in non-conference schedule. 

Texas A&M Aggies PG Wade Taylor IV drives past Houston Cougars PG Jamal Shead at Toyota Center. (Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports)

One of their out-of-conference games was against the Aggies. Houston beat Texas A&M 70-66, but the Aggies covered as +7 underdogs and these teams split the "four factors". They met at the Toyota Center in Houston, so it was essentially a home game for the Cougars. According to Erik Haslam, Houston is 360th in "away-from-home efficiency" and Texas A&M is 33rd. 

Lastly, Aggies junior PG Will Taylor IV is one of the few guys who can go toe-to-toe with Cougars PG, and Big 12 Player of the Year, Jamal Shead. Taylor was Ken Pom's MVP of the first Texas A&M-Houston meeting this season by out-scoring Shead 34-12. 

Bet 1.1u on the Aggies +10 (-110) at FanDuel. Give me Texas A&M down to +8. 

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