2 Desperation Bets In NBA Tuesday Action
Given my recent results, I should take a beat and bet the NBA when there's a larger slate. That would be the smart thing to do but doing the smart thing has failed me all season. Instead, I'm firing from the hip Tuesday so to speak. My biggest problem handicapping the NBA this season has been "paralysis by analysis."
I.e. I'm overthinking these matchups and not doing enough gambling. Or maybe I'm just being "square". Regardless, there's only three NFL games until the fall and I'm trying to avoid college basketball until March Madness. With that in mind, let's get into my
Best Bets For NBA Tuesday
New York Knicks (-4) at Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET
NYK waxed Brooklyn 121-102 in their 1st meeting this season at Barclays Center Dec. 20th. This was before the Knicks acquired SF OG Anunoby and mediocre games by PF Julius Randle and PG Jalen Brunson.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), OG has a +39.7 non-garbage time on/off net rating since going to New York. Meaning, the Knicks score 39.7 MORE points per 100 possessions when Anunoby is on the floor.
New York Knicks PF Julius Randle backs down Nets PF Dorian Finney-Smith at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. (Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
The Knicks could be without starting big Isaiah Hartenstein, which would be a huge loss if it were long-term. But, NYK don't need Hartenstein to beat the Nets. They are one of the smaller teams in the NBA and the Knicks have a good small-ball lineup featuring Julius, OG and SF Josh Hart.
Lastly, New York crushes as a road favorite. Since 2022, the Knicks are 15-5 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in that spot. They are 7-3 SU and ATS with a +8.9 scoring margin this season.
My prediction: Knicks 117, Nets 108
Utah Jazz (+7) at New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET
Utah’s home-road splits might have the biggest discrepancy in the NBA. The Jazz are 15-6 SU at home and 16-5 ATS with a +7.7 scoring margin. While Utah is 7-16 SU with a -9.8 scoring margin on the road. Yet, that’s started to even out recently. The Jazz are 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
New Orleans snapped 5-game losing skid to Utah with a 112-105 win at home Dec. 28th. However, the Jazz covered as +9 ‘dogs, extending their ATS-winning streak over the Pelicans to six games, which dates back to last season.
Utah Jazz big John Collins jams it on the Pelicans in an NBA game at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports)
The secret to Utah’s success vs. NOLA is from behind the arc. Since 2022, the Jazz average 7.3 more made 3-pointers per game vs. the Pelicans. That’s roughly a 22-point edge Utah has over New Orleans. It’s tough to overcome that big of a gap.
Quietly, the Jazz are one of the hottest teams in the NBA. Over the last two weeks, Utah is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS with a +13.9 spread differential, per CTG. The bottom line is I like how the Jazz are moving the ball and shooting and Utah has NOLA's number.