The 152nd Open Championship Bets To Win, One-And-Done Pick From An Ice-Cold PGA TOUR Bettor

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From a betting perspective, this PGA TOUR season has been a f*cking nightmare. I'm getting crushed emotionally, mentally, spiritually, and, most importantly, financially. Luckily, it's almost over. This week is golf's final major of the year, The 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon Golf Club in South Ayrshire, Scotland. 

Last year, neither I nor any golf bettor I follow predicted Brian Harman would win The Open. Harman was +15000 pre-tournament, the longest odds to win The Open since Darren Clarke in 2011 (+20000). But, even though I'm pretty much lighting money on fire, I remain confident, especially for The Open. I hit Collin Morikawa at +3500 odds in The 149th Open in 2021 and Cameron Smith two years ago at +2000.

Lord knows I need to hit The Open Championship for a third time this year. Last week, I pulled my usual -5.35-unit (u) disaster at the Genesis Scottish Open. None of my five outright picks were in contention Sunday and all of my finishing position bets bricked. Now, I'm -58.06u with only five PGA TOUR events left this season. It's frustrating and, barring a heater, I'll reassess my approach to betting golf next year. 

READ: A Redemption Spot For Rory, Must-Win Vibes For Scheffler, A Shot At History For Bryson Lead Open Storylines

That said, I'll go down with my guys. The only thing that could make this season worse is if Morikawa or Hideki Matsuyama won The Open and I didn't have money on them. I'd be a wreck if that happened. So, they'll be two of my five outright bets. Two of my other picks are Benedict Arnolds and the other has never won a PGA TOUR event. 

I.e. fade away homies.  

The Open Championship 2024 Betting Card 

‘Horses for the Course’ 

The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks.

Collin Morikawa (+1600)

I fell in love with betting on golf when I hit Collin at 35-to-1 in his 2021 Open Championship victory. Albeit Morikawa's odds suck this year. But, that's because the two-time major champion is "knocking on the door" for his next win. 

Morikawa was T3 at The Masters, T4 at the PGA Championship, and T14 at the U.S. Open. He has five more top-10 finishes this season, including second to World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler at the Memorial Tournament and T4 at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open. Collin is close to breaking through for another win because his short-game has been on point lately. 

Collin Morikawa celebrates with the Claret Jug after winning The 2021 Open (British) Championship. (Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports)

Collin Morikawa celebrates with the Claret Jug after winning The 2021 Open (British) Championship. (Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports)

The four-time PGA TOUR winner is 12th in Strokes Gained (SG): Around-the-Green (ARG) on TOUR this year and third in putts per green-in-regulation (GIR). The greens at Royal Troon are small and Morikawa’s precise ball-striking will help him hit more GIRs than most of the field. If Collin keeps up his hot putting, he’ll contend for his second career Open Championship. 

BET 1.5u on Collin Morikawa (+1600) to profit 24u. 

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Brooks Koepka (+4000)

This is just a value play. I’m betting Koepka anytime he is 40-to-1 or higher at a major. He won the 2023 PGA Championship and looked like he was "back". However, it’s been an up-and-down year for Brooks. The five-time major champion has only one win on the LIV Tour this season in Singapore in May. 

Koepka didn’t contend in the first three majors of the year. Koepka was T45 at The Masters, T26 in defense of his PGA Championship, and T26 at the U.S. Open. While he doesn’t feel like the type of player that would win an Open Championship, Brooks has played well at this major in years past. 

Brooks Koepka lines up a putt during The Open Championship 2023 at Royal Liverpool in England. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)

Brooks Koepka lines up a putt during The Open Championship 2023 at Royal Liverpool in England. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)

He was T16 at The Open in 2021, T4 in 2019, T6 in 2017, and T10 in 2015. Koepka didn’t play in the 2016 Open at Royal Troon due to injury. Americans won six straight Opens here before Henrik Stenson’s 2016 win. So there is something about this course Americans like. Maybe Koepka can be the seventh American to win in the last eight Opens at Royal Troon. At this price, I'm willing to take a shot on a proven winner. 

BET 0.55u on Brooks Koepka (+4000) to profit 22u. 

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Hideki Matsuyama (+5500) 

Let me wash the egg off my face, put my clown makeup on, and give out Matsuyama again. He missed the cut "on the number" with a -2 score at last week's Genesis Scottish Open. But, Hideki missed putts from 2-foot-11, 7-foot-5 (twice), 19 inches, 4-foot-7, 3-foot-2, 2-foot-10, and 7-foot-1. 

All in all, Matsuyama was -4.8 SG: Putting at the Scottish Open. If those putts go down, Hideki plays on the weekend and has the game to win any tournament. He gained strokes with his driver, irons, and ARG at the Scottish Open, per DataGolf.com. 

Furthermore, the Scottish Open was Matsuyama's first missed cut this year and he ranks eighth in the FedExCup standings. Hideki won The Genesis Invitational ("signature event"), tied for sixth at THE PLAYERS Championship, finished T8 at the Memorial, and T6 at the U.S. Open. 

Lastly, the 2021 Masters champion plays well at tough courses. The most challenging golf holes are long Par 4s. According to Fantasy National, Hideki is fifth in this field for Par 4 scoring: 450-500 yards. This sample includes the first three majors and five "signature events": The Genesis, Arnold Palmer Invitational, THE PLAYERS, the Memorial, and the Travelers. 

BET 0.4u on Hideki Matsuyama (+5500) to profit 22u. 
  • I'm adding a top-20 bet on Matsuyama (+225) at BetMGM for 0.6u to profit 1.35u.

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Joaquin Niemann (+6600)

Before defecting to the LIV Tour, Niemann was one of the best young talents on the PGA TOUR. Niemann won twice on TOUR, including The Genesis in 2022, which has one of the toughest fields of any non-major in golf. The Chilean is 112th in the Official World Golf Rankings because he departed from the PGA TOUR. That said, Niemann is 12th in the DataGolf.com rankings and 11th in the DP World Tour Rankings. 

He won two LIV events this year, at Mayakoba and Jeddah. Plus, Niemann finished T3 at Nashville and T6 at Andalucia in his past two LIV starts. Joaquin won the ISPS Handa Australian Open at the beginning of the DP World Tour season in December after finishing fifth in the Fortinet Australian PGA Championship and before tying for fourth in the Hero Dubai Desert Classic. 

The biggest criticism of Niemann is his poor record in the majors. His best finish at a major was T16 at The Masters in 2023. But, again, Joaquin is only 25 years old and having the best season of his career. And, at this price, there's room on my Open Championship betting card for Niemann knowing his ceiling is a multiple-time major winner. 

BET 0.4u on Joaquin Niemann (+6600) to profit 26.4u. 

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Cameron Young (+7000) 

It doesn't make sense, but Young finished second and T8 in his first two Open Championships from 2021-22. You'd think the American bomber's game doesn't fit the Open rota courses. Nevertheless, Young overpowers these links-style courses. He gained 6.6 yards off-the-tee on the field at last year's Open and 18.8 yards two years ago, according to DataGolf.com. 

Young hasn't broken his maiden on TOUR yet. But, he comes into The Open with good form, finishing T9 at the Travelers and T6 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last month. The 27-year-old shot a 59 on Moving Day of the Travelers. He was tied for third at the Rocket Mortgage entering the final round and then shot 1-over par, blowing another chance to win. 

Ultimately, this is a gut-feel bet. I mentally committed to betting on Young at The Open at the beginning of this season, and I'm holding the line. Links-style courses can get windy and Royal Troon is a better fit for bombers than most Open courses. Essentially, Young has the power to reach the Par 5's in two strokes and to handle the long Par 4's. 

BET 0.4u on Cameron Young (+7000) to profit 28u. 
  • I'm adding a top-20 bet on Cameron Young (+210) at DraftKings for a 0.5u to profit 1.05u.

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The Open Championship 2024 One-And-Done Pick: Brooks Koepka 

Like my PGA TOUR season, my One-And-Done league has sucked this year. After 26 tournaments, I have $11,635,625 and rank 1,520th in the 2024 Mayo Cup. Since only 690 entrants get paid, I need to win out to make any money. Koepka and Niemann are my only picks for The Open still available in the pool. 

Also, I've already used Scottie, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schauffele. Koepka may be popular because you can only use him in the majors. But, what can I do? I'm saving Ludvig Åberg for the FedExCup Playoffs and I don't like Bryson DeChambeau, who will be more popular than Koepka given how well he's played in the majors this year. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.