Trump Pulls Ahead of Kamala In All 7 Battleground States in RCP Averages
Donald Trump flipped Wisconsin in Thursday's RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages, putting him ahead of Kamala Harris in all seven battleground states.
The RCP averages are consistent with the Polymarket betting odds, which also favor Trump in all seven states, giving him a 60.5 percent chance of victory.
If Trump actually goes 7 for 7, he would win the election 312-226, as shown below:
Exciting.
However, Trump's RCP lead over Harris is within the margin of error in all seven states:
– Arizona: Trump, +1.1
– North Carolina, +1.0
– Georgia: Trump, +0.9
– Michigan: Trump, +0.9
– Pennsylvania: Trump, +0.5
– Nevada: Trump, +0.5
– Wisconsin - Trump, +0.1
Essentially, Trump needs to win four of the seven, as in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. If he does, the race is over. At that point, he would not need the remaining three battleground states.
See below:
However, if Trump were to lose Pennsylvania or North Carolina, his paths to victory are slim.
See, the "It is all about Pennsylvania" argument only holds true if we assume Trump wins NC. And with the margin in the state so small in the RCP averages, the possibility of Trump winning PA and still losing the election remains on the table.
In that scenario, Harris would need to win NC, MI, WI, and just one of the three Sun Belt swing states (NA, GA, AZ) – with Nevada the most likely to go blue.
Unlikely, but not unimaginable.
See below:
In 2020, North Carolina was the only swing state Trump claimed. So, he has significant ground to make up for from four years ago.
But the consequences of the southern border loom large in the Sun Belt. The illegal thug who beat Laken Riley to death did so in Georgia.
Additionally, the exorbitant rise in the cost of living and the Harris campaign's failure to resonate with blue-collar working men – white and black – could be the difference in Michigan and Pennsylvania in November.
Finally, the most important statistic to consider is the number of Americans who view the country as "on the right track." No incumbent party has ever won a presidential election when less than 39 percent of Americans say "yes."
According to CNN polling, just 28 percent of voters say America is "moving in the right direction." Most voters agree that they were better off four years ago under President Trump.
Turning to the first person, my current map projection has Trump winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. Meaning, Harris takes Wisconsin and Nevada.
The outcome: a 296-242 victory for Trump.
[All map graphics made via 270ToWin.com]