RFK Jr. Grabs 22% of Vote Against Biden and Trump

Next week will mark exactly one year until the 2024 presidential election, in what political scientists expect to be a rematch of 2020 between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Yet Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has vowed to "spoil" the election by recently changing his bid from Democrat to independent.

A new poll suggests voters are taking him seriously.

A Quinnipiac University survey on Wednesday shows RFK Jr. with 22% support in a hypothetical three-way race against Biden and Trump.

Biden leads Trump, 39% to 36%.

The question is less about whether RFK can win the election as an independent -- he likely can't -- but which candidate would he damage more by running as a third party.

Though he first entered the race as a Democratic presidential candidate back in April, internal polling suggests he is more likely to wrest away Republican voters.

"Members of Donald Trump’s team are quietly preparing to go on offense against Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as internal campaign polling suggests his expected third party bid could draw more votes from Trump than President Joe Biden in a general election," Shelby Talcott from Semafor first reported in October.

The Quinnipiac poll projects Trump would be in a dead heat with Biden, around 47% each, in the event RFK Jr. is not on the ballot.

A POLITICO analysis also detailed how Kennedy's financial backing could be of concern to Trump:

"The poll is just another sign that Kennedy’s independent bid might have significant appeal from Americans wary of another Trump or Biden presidency. A recent POLITICO analysis recently found that Kennedy has pulled millions of dollars from people who didn’t donate in the past two presidential elections. That analysis also found that his financial backing more often come from those who gave to Trump rather than to Biden."

Still, Trump remains the favorite to win the 2024 race according to the betting market in the UK. There, Kennedy's independent bid has caused minimal movement:

For context: the odds say it's more likely Gavin Newsom or Nikki Haley overtake Biden and Trump in their respective primaries than Kennedy wins the general election as an independent.

That checks out.

The 1992 election marked the last time a third-party candidate seriously influenced the outcome of the race. That year, populist Ross Perot received 19% of the votes, or nearly 20 million votes, in the most succeeding third-party showing since 1912.

Bill Clinton ultimately won the election, topping Perot and George H. W. Bush.

And Kennedy does have supporters, some of whom have become quite passionate.

Kennedy, in addition to his rich family history, has raised his political profile by documenting his skepticism of vaccine efficacy, which led to disenchantment from his former party.

In May, he vocalized his belief that the CIA had his uncle, John F. Kennedy, killed -- lending credence to Oliver Stone who created a movie around that hypothesis in 1991.

(Why did CIA operative George de Mohrenschildt befriend Lee Harvey Oswald? We aren't allowed to ask that question.)

The media and the Democratic Party call Robert F. Kennedy Jr's stance on the vaccine and his uncle "dangerous and conspiratorial."

They aren't. And his courage to voice those opinions is why his following is so strong.