Projecting NFL Win Totals

Football is back! Well not really but the NFL schedule release last week means we’re only a few short months from kicking off the regular season (cue the excessive draft dialogue for 4 days).  With such a fine line separating teams from one another, there's no greater equalizer in pro football than a soft schedule.  For those unfamiliar with the betting hype surrounding season long win total wagers, they’re a better predictive measure of Vegas' true expectations for each team than future odds.

As a former bookmaker, setting win totals always provided a welcomed challenge because they attract professional bettors the same way AAU basketball tournaments attract sports agents. Regular season wins create great buzz however they're rarely a lucrative venture for most casinos, paling in comparison to the profits achieved by a competitive futures market.

For those reading the column out there about to go; "wait, your win projections don't equal the exact number of wins available during the season!" That's not a mistake or done on accident; the prices are inflated in anticipation of the public's tendency to look for overs. Afterall, most recreational gamblers find it more entertaining to root for wins all season long over teams compiling 2-14 regular seasons

Gambler's Note: Juice you see attached to my win totals indicate additional “tax” or vigorish used to increase or decrease payouts on a wager.  Juice is the biggest deterrent to back professionals off a particular bet because consistently laying a steep price erodes your bankroll faster than the traditional 11/10. Half games are used as an intermediate step but juice is added at every price point before a half game would be added or subtracted from the opener. 

Example of a typical line move:

Step 1: Price Opens 8
Step 2: Line moves to 8 Over -120
Step 3: Line moves to 8 over -140.
Step 4: So much money keeps flowing in on the over the next step is to go to 8.5
Step 5: Line than goes to 8.5 over -120, 8.5 over -140 etc. You get the idea



Each bookmaker determines how large a move to make between price points based on expected liability and risk threshold.

Rather than speculate on who may come from off the pace to have a surprise season, here are my way too early projected win totals for all 32 NFL teams. 

2013 Projected Win Totals

Broncos 12.5

Patriots 12.5

49ers 12

Packers 12

Seahawks 11.5

Falcons 11 Over -125

Colts 10

Texans 9.5

Bears 9

Bengals 9

Giants 9

Saints 9

Cowboys 8.5

Redskins 8.5 Over -125

Steelers 8.5

Ravens 8 Over -130

Panthers 7.5 Under -125

Buccaneers 7

Rams 7

Vikings 7

Bills 6.5 Over -125

Chiefs 6.5 Over -125

Dolphins 6.5 Over -120

Eagles 6.5 Under -125

Lions 6.5

Browns 6

Chargers 6 Over -120

Jets 6 Over -125

Titans 6

Cardinals 6 Under -125

Raiders 5

Jaguars 4 Under -120


Updated Super Bowl odds from LVH Superbook


PATRIOTS 5

49ERS 6

BRONCOS 6

PACKERS 12

SEAHAWKS 7

TEXANS 12

FALCONS 16

STEELERS 20

SAINTS 18

RAVENS 30

GIANTS 18

REDSKINS 30

BEARS 30

BENGALS 30

COWBOYS 30

CHARGERS 50

LIONS 50

VIKINGS 50

COLTS 30

PANTHERS 60

JETS 100

EAGLES 60

DOLPHINS 40

RAMS 60

BUCS 40

BROWNS 60

CHIEFS 60

TITANS 100

BILLS 100

CARDINALS 150

RAIDERS 200

JAGUARS 200

Written by
Clay Travis is the founder of the fastest growing national multimedia platform, OutKick, that produces and distributes engaging content across sports and pop culture to millions of fans across the country. OutKick was created by Travis in 2011 and sold to the Fox Corporation in 2021. One of the most electrifying and outspoken personalities in the industry, Travis hosts OutKick The Show where he provides his unfiltered opinion on the most compelling headlines throughout sports, culture, and politics. He also makes regular appearances on FOX News Media as a contributor providing analysis on a variety of subjects ranging from sports news to the cultural landscape. Throughout the college football season, Travis is on Big Noon Kickoff for Fox Sports breaking down the game and the latest storylines. Additionally, Travis serves as a co-host of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, a three-hour conservative radio talk program syndicated across Premiere Networks radio stations nationwide. Previously, he launched OutKick The Coverage on Fox Sports Radio that included interviews and listener interactions and was on Fox Sports Bet for four years. Additionally, Travis started an iHeartRadio Original Podcast called Wins & Losses that featured in-depth conversations with the biggest names in sports. Travis is a graduate of George Washington University as well as Vanderbilt Law School. Based in Nashville, he is the author of Dixieland Delight, On Rocky Top, and Republicans Buy Sneakers Too.