Outkick's Gambling Picks for Week 7 2014

There's no way to sugarcoat this, last week's picks got massacred. I mean totally destroyed. We went 2-8 against the number, but that wasn't even the worst of it. Six of the teams I picked to cover actually lost their games. I did a four team parlay on Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and South Carolina and went 0-4. That's every bit as difficult as going 4-0. 

KATY PERRY did better with her picks than I did. (But she also beat most of you too). I bet on nine favorites on a weekend when college football had more upsets than any week in the history of the sport. As if that wasn't bad enough, the only underdog I picked, Texas A&M, got crushed. The 2-8 weekend crushed what had been an okay season, turning a decent 24-19 mark on the year into a 26-27 record. 

Some men (or women -- do any women reading the picks right now gamble on sports weekly? I've never met a woman who gambles on games on a weekly basis. This is probably because women are smarter than men.) would run from failures like these. But there's only one way to respond to a disastrous weekend -- by jumping back in with both feet and making a run at 10-0.

Having said that, holy hell, this week's games are difficult as hell. I don't even feel that comfortable picking winners in most of these games.

The best thing to do then? Get the mojo back by staring at this terrifying Alabama tattoo. 

This. Is. Terrifying. 

Baylor -8 vs. TCU

I'd love for this game to dip beneath a touchdown. If it happens, I'm going to double down and pronounce this my bet the mortgage pick. In the meantime, Baylor doesn't lose at home. No matter who they're playing. TCU is coming off its biggest win in years and while the Horned Frogs may be underrated, we're talking about Baylor here.

Baylor is a covering machine.  

Auburn -2.5 and the over 63 at Mississippi State

I have Auburn as the best team in the SEC. I know Mississippi State has been impressive the past two weeks, but I think they're going to run into a buzzsaw against Gus Malzahn's team. Having said all of that, I wouldn't take Auburn above 3. I do, however, love the over here. In fact, if you have to choose between playing a side or playing the over/under, take the over. 

Alabama at Arkansas +10.5 

Arkansas is coming off a bye week and Alabama played an incredibly physical Ole Miss team. So what's up next? An incredibly physical Arkansas team looking for its first SEC win in 15 games. I don't think Arkansas wins, but I think the Razorbacks come out and score first to take an early lead against the Tide. You're getting 10.5 points and with that first Arkansas touchdown you'll be sitting at 17.5. 

Honestly, it wouldn't shock me if the Razorbacks won either. 

The one bit of trepidation I feel is that Arkansas's offense is a typical pro style attack that Nick Saban made his career shutting down, but I think this is a depleted Alabama defense. 

LSU at Florida +2 and the under of 47

LSU is not a good football team. Maybe by the end of the year they'll be better on offense and defense, but right now they're not good at either. Florida is not a good football team either. The fact that Tennessee managed to lose last week -- taking all of our mortgage payments in the process -- is ludicrous. But here's the deal, how do you not take Florida as the home underdog here? Even more importantly, how do you not take the under at 47? I think the over under on this game should be 8. 

These offenses are so bad they aren't even capable of scoring on each other. And I think Will Muschamp has already taken control of the playcalling and is trying to replicate his 2012 team when the Gators went 11-1 in the regular season and won every game 10-6. 

Oregon at UCLA +2.5

Neither offensive line can block for its first round quarterback. The over/under on sacks in this game is 12. So which quarterback is more likely to get knocked out of the game? Despite the fact that neither team can block, I still expect each team to score over 30 points and for UCLA to outlast the Ducks in an incredibly entertaining game that will eliminate the loser from all playoff contention. 

If Helfrich loses this game Oregon will be 3-4 in its past seven Pac 12 games. 

How long until his seat becomes scalding hot?

Georgia -3 at Missouri and the over of 62

I'm going to be honest with you -- no team has f---ed me in gambling like the Georgia Bulldogs over the past two seasons. And few teams have been better to me than Missouri. But ultimately this game comes down to a simple question -- is Georgia any good or not? If the Bulldogs lose they aren't any good. The entire SEC East is crap. 

Missouri lost at home to Indiana. Only Vandy's home loss to Temple is worse. But Missouri has Maty Mauk throwing against Georgia's awful secondary, which is a couple of injuries away from starting the Kappa Sig's flag football team secondary. (If Georgia just put Todd Gurley at safety, and told him to play Cover 2, couldn't he do it? I think he'd get a couple of picks).

This is a really tough game to pick, but ultimately I can't bet against Todd Gurley. (Even if that means I have to bet for Hutson Mason).  

Anyway, all of this means that the over is the play here too. No one's defense is looking good in this game. 

Ole Miss at Texas A&M -2

I could make a long speech about why I'm taking the Aggies here, but really this boils down to two things: 1. I believe in Kevin Sumlin coming off a big loss with a big game at home 2. Ole Miss's players were drunk for three days after that win over Alabama. It's going to be impossible for them to focus. A&M still hasn't gotten a huge home win since joining the SEC. I think that ends on Saturday. But if it doesn't, look out -- the Aggies still have games at Alabama and at Auburn -- a four loss season seems likely.