One Statistic Spells Doom For Kamala Harris' Election Chances

There's an argument that we overcomplicate and overanalyze presidential elections. Put simply, sometimes elections boil down to one simple question: is the country on the right track or not?

If the answer is yes, the incumbent party will likely be victorious. If the answer is no, the challenger should be the favorite.

CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten, one of the few credible voices still at the network, is a believer in that philosophy. So is history.

See, just 28 percent of Americans say "the country is on the right track." No incumbent party has ever won the election with confidence that low.

"If we look at whether voters believe we’re on the right track or the wrong track, I think that this sort of gets at a problem for Kamala Harris’s campaign. Just 28 percent of Americans think the U.S. is on the right track," said Enten.

"When does the average when the incumbent party loses the election, look at that: It’s just 25 percent. When the White House party wins, i.e. Kamala Harris’s party, the Democrats, 42 percent on average think that the country is on the right track."

Specifically, an incumbent party has never won the election when less than 39 percent of voters viewed the country on the "right track," as detailed in the image below:
 

Via CNN.

"Look throughout history, right. — ’96, ’88, ’04,  ’12, ’84 — in all of these instances, in all these instances, far more than 28% thought that the country was on the right track," answered Enten. "Thirty-nine was the lowest back in 1996. We got upwards of 47% in ’84, of course that was a blowout, right, for Ronald Reagan," Enten elaborates.

Now, that does not mean Harris cannot be an outlier. But an outlier she'd have to be. 

"There is no historical precedent for the White House party winning another term in the White House when the country, when just 28% of the country thinks that we’re on the right track. John, simply put, it would be historically unprecedented," he concluded. "The bottom line is it looks a lot more like a loser for Harris."

For the first time since Sep. 9, Donald Trump is again the betting favorite to win the election, per Polymarket. But Enten's analysis suggests Trump should be more of a favorite than the 50-49 percent margin he is per the market. 

Notably, Trump's odds of winning the all-important battleground state of Pennsylvania are up to 6 percent. As we argued this week, the winner of Pennsylvania is almost certainly going to win the election.

And fracking could be the key.

A recent Philadelphia Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll found that 48 percent of Pennsylvania voters trusted Trump to do a better job on fracking than Harris, at 41 percent.

The Financial Times analyzed on Monday how voters in Pennsylvania do not trust Harris' stance on shale gas and how those in Pennsylvania’s shale patch think Democrats are "hostile to their business."

According to CNN, Americans believe the Democrat Party is hostile to the country.