Nate Silver's Calculations Still Favor Trump Over Harris, But Margins Are Alarmingly Slim

Statistician Nate Silver released his first election model since Joe Biden dropped out of the race and Kamala Harris emerged as the presumptive Democratic nominee.

In June, Silver ran 40,000 simulations and calculated that Biden had a 27 percent chance of beating Trump. Silver's new model gives Harris a better chance of winning in November than her predecessor. However, Silver still views Trump as a "modest favorite."

He gives Trump a 61 percent chance of winning, compared to 38 percent for Harris. 

With Harris favored to win the popular vote, Silver foreshadows "a repeat of the popular vote-Electoral College split that cost Democrats the 2000 and 2016 elections."

Note: Democrats have won the popular vote all but once since 2000, when George W. Bush topped John Kerry in 2004.

What's concerning for Trump, however, is the all-important state of Pennsylvania. Susquehanna Polling data on Tuesday found Harris leading Trump by four points in the state. 

Harris' margin in Pennsylvania could extend if she chooses popular Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate. Granted, Shapiro is Jewish. Picking a Jewish vice president would certainly upset her far-left supporters.

Nonetheless, as we demonstrated below, Trump would likely have to win Michigan if he loses Pennsylvania. Otherwise, we'd have him topping out at 268 electorates. 

Harris and Trump poll closely in Michigan. Depending on the polling agency, you can find either candidate leading within the margin of error. 

Secondly, Democrats feared lower than expected turnout with Biden on the ballot. Just 55 percent of registered voters were deemed "almost certain to vote" with Biden as the nominee, according to CNN estimates. 

That number has since spiked to a record 62 percent.

"Look at where we are now: we are now at 62 percent after the RNC, after Kamala Harris gets into this race," explained CNN data guru Harry Enten on Wednesday. "And that is actually a higher number than what we saw during the summer of 2020 when it was 60 percent. 

"So at this particular point, as we look at the math right now, if we are trusting what voters are saying, it’s actually possible we’ll see higher turnout than what we saw in 2020, which is what you pointed out was record turnout. So quite the shift here. It’s not just enthusiasm. It’s actually people saying that they’re going to go out and almost certainly vote."

How could that be?

Sports fans will understand. OutKick discussed after the June debate about how Harris would benefit from the "new coach phenomenon" in which a base rallies behind the new coach for simply being someone different.

Harris' greatest strength among Democrats: she is not Joe Biden.

If nothing else, Harris has added excitement to the ticket for moderate Democratic voters who were concerned about Biden's ability to run the country. We see that in the polling.

The media has somewhat successfully repackaged Harris and presented her as less radical and more likable than she truly is. Undoubtedly, Harris has the momentum right now. 

However, the election is not until November. Back to the coach analogy — the honeymoon period for a new coach lasts only so long. Eventually, they must perform.

There's a reasonable argument that the more Harris is visible, the more she'll remind voters why she was so unpopular during the 2020 primary elections. She is condescending, arrogant, and disingenuous. (But is she weird?)

Moreover, Harris will eventually have to answer for her shoddy record as both district attorney and attorney general. Her role at the Southern border is also a liability, hence the effort to distance herself from the "border czar" label.

Put bluntly, Kamala Harris' greatest accomplishment is that she was born a black woman, the chief reason Biden selected her as his vice president. Other than her race and gender, Harris has little to tout.

Where does that leave us heading into the election? As Nate Silver concluded, "We, honestly, don’t know." 

That said, Trump was preparing for a blowout victory against Joe Biden. Now, a tightly contested race in which one state decides the outcome is increasingly likely.