A Look At The Odds Post-Biden Drop Out: Surge For Harris, VP Love For Buttigieg
Joe Biden announced Sunday that he will not run for re-election and would endorse Kamala Harris.
"My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President," the president posted on X.
"And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this."
As expected, Harris is now the heavy favorite to be the Democrat nominee at -417, according to the betting market.
As of publication, Harris is +275 to win the election. Trump remains a solid favorite at -161, though much less of a favorite than he was (around -200) when Biden remained committed to staying the nominee.
We explained on Friday why Harris would likely fare better against Trump than Biden, likening her to a new coach on the field.
In sports, there is a "new coach phenomenon" in which players and fan bases usually rally behind a new coach no matter their long-term prospects. When a coach is fired in the NFL mid-season, teams frequently respond with a win the following week. Here is a look at that trend.
Essentially, new coaches benefit from not being the coach whom they replace. Likewise, Harris would benefit from simply not being Joe Biden. A low bar, no doubt.
At least initially, Harris would rejuvenate the base. She would likely increase voter turnout amid growing concerns within the party that previous Biden voters would stay home if he remained on the ticket.
As for Harris' potential vice presidential candidates, the odds say Pete Buttigieg is the favorite at +370. He is followed by Gavin Newsom at +1550, Michelle Obama (weird) at +2300, and Gretchen Whitmer (yuck) at +3300.
Bizarrely, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear is not listed. Watch out for Beshear, a name often floated by NBC News, the network closest to the Democrat Party.
"It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your president," Biden wrote in a public letter on Sunday.
"While it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interests of my party and the country for me to stand down and focus solely on fulfilling my duties as president for the remainder of my term."
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