Like All New Football Coaches, Kamala Harris Eventually Has To Perform

On July 19, before Joe Biden bowed out of the 2024 race, we predicted that when Kamala Harris replaces him she'd benefit from the "new coach phenomenon."

Sports fans understood.

In football, there's a long-running trend in which players and fan bases rally behind their new coach no matter their long-term prospects. When a coach is fired mid-season, teams frequently respond with a win the following week. 

Here is a look at that trend in more detail.

We applied the same logic to the state of the Democrat Party by predicting Harris would re-energize the base by simply not being Joe Biden. And that's exactly what has happened. 

Trump was headed toward a blowout victory against Biden. Nate Silver's model in July gave Trump a near 70 percent chance of victory. He was inevitable.

Now, most polls show a tightly-contested race in battleground states – often giving a slight edge to Harris. Kamala is currently the betting favorite to win the election at -105. Trump has slipped to +118.

Primarily, Americans who previously planned not to vote now plan to vote. 

According to CNN estimates, just 55% of registered voters were deemed "almost certain to vote" with Biden as the nominee. That number now sits at a record 62 %.

Like fans of a team with a new coach, Democrats are engaged anew. They are confident.

However, we also explained in our original piece that "new coaches eventually have to perform." The honeymoon period for a new coach lasts only so long. At some point, they have to prove they are worthy.

That time for Harris should be fast approaching. 

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - JULY 24: U.S. Republican Presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks to attendees during his campaign rally at the Bojangles Coliseum on July 24, 2024 in Charlotte, North Carolina. The rally is the former president's first since President Joe Biden announced he would be ending his reelection bid.  (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

As of Monday, Kamala has gone 22 days without holding a formal news conference or sit-down interview since emerging as the Democrat Party's nominee. She has yet to discuss her planned policies, other than poaching Trump's vow to end taxes on tips.

While Harris will remain the darling of the media throughout the election cycle, she has agreed to at least one debate with Trump in September on ABC. Even with an assist from the moderators, Harris will struggle to hide the unlikable characteristics that plagued her so greatly during the 2020 Democrat primaries. 

Trump will skewer Harris on topics like her role at the Southern border and the rising cost of living under the Biden administration. He will cite her unfavorable track record as a politician, which includes only winning the nominee because the party took the vote out of the hands of Americans.

Can Harris withstand the first real push back of her presidential campaign? Can she defend her shoddy past? Can she remain popular when discussing policy? 

We have yet to find out. But we are about to.